Storm Coordination Message #3A

Hello to all….

…..A brief update on the storm situation. The Strongest Winds have been delayed 4-6 Hours. Winds will pick up toward mid-late morning with the strongest winds with the potential for hurricane force winds over portions of Cape Cod and the Islands expected toward mid-late afternoon….
…..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will still start around 7 AM but will be fairly informal until 9-10 AM this morning. Please see Storm Coordination Message #3 for complete data including links for latest watches and warnings….

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #3

Hello to all….

….Noel is transitioning into a large and powerful extratropical ocean storm and will bring damaging winds to much of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island with hurricane force wind gusts possible over Cape Cod and the Islands. Significant urban and poor drainage flooding with some level of river and stream flooding is also possible and there is a threat for moderate Coastal Flooding over Cape Cod and the Islands….
….A High Wind Warning is in effect from 6 AM to 9 PM Saturday for Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island….
….A High Wind Warning is in effect from 4 AM to Midnight Saturday for Cape Cod and the Islands….
….A Wind Advisory is in effect from 8 AM to 6 PM Saturday for Southeast New Hampshire, Central Massachusetts and North-Central and Northeast Connecticut….
….A Flood Watch is in effect from Saturday Morning through Saturday Evening for Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts from Boston and Norfolk County south to the coast….
….A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect from Saturday Morning through Saturday Evening for the morning and evening high tide cycles for Cape Cod and the Islands….
….Hurricane Force Wind Warnings and Storm Warnings are in effect for the Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island coastlines. See Hazardous Weather Outlook for specific areas for coastal warnings….
….Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency’s State EOC and Region Two HQ will be doing a limited activation starting at 7 AM with RACES support….
….Local ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the progress of this significant ocean storm and seek advice from local ARES and RACES leadership on any possible activation….
….SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will occur starting at 7 AM Saturday and last through late Saturday Night/early Sunday Morning….

Noel has transitioned into a large and powerful extratropical ocean storm and the National Hurricane Center has issued it’s a last advisory. The storm is now undergoing intensification as an extratropical system and models have tracked slightly further west that previous runs. The strong wind field and heavy rain area will extend well beyond the center of the system. Given this information, High Wind Warnings, Wind Advisories, Flood Watches and Coastal Flood Watches have been issued and this coordination message will detail the various items.

A High Wind Warning is in effect from 6 AM to 9 PM Saturday for Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. In Southeast Coastal Massachusetts from roughly Mattapoisett to Plymouth, sustained winds of around 40 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH are expected with the peak of the strongest winds expected in the late morning through the afternoon. In the Boston to Providence corridor, sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH are possible Saturday Afternoon. Winds will be somewhat less farther inland but will still be sufficient to cause wind damage in this area.

A High Wind Warning is in effect from 4 AM to 12 AM Saturday for Cape Cod and the Islands. In this area, the potential exists for hurricane force wind gusts with gusts as high as 85 MPH possible across the Outer Cape and Nantucket with sustained winds of 40-50 MPH. Across the upper Cape and Martha’s Vineyard, wind gusts of 75 MPH with sustained winds of 35-45 MPH are likely. In all areas, wind gusts of 40-50 MPH are expected to take hold near or shortly after daybreak.

A Wind Advisory is in effect from 8 AM to 6 PM Saturday for Southeast New Hampshire, Central Massachusetts and North-Central and Northeast Connecticut. In this area, sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH are possible with the strongest winds in the late morning to early afternoon hours.

A Flood Watch is now in effect from Saturday Morning through Saturday Evening for Southeast Massachusetts from the Boston area and Norfolk County south and east through Cape Cod and the Islands as well as Rhode Island. In these areas, 2-5” of rain is expected with isolated higher amounts. The heaviest rain will be over the south and east portions of the Flood Watch area. These rains would bring some flooding to rivers and streams but the more significant issue would be urban and poor drainage flooding over the region.

A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect from Saturday Morning through Saturday Evening for the morning and evening high tide cycles for Cape Cod and the Islands. In this area, seas and winds may be sufficient to result in areas of moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide. This will be contingent on water buildup in a short period of time for the morning high tide cycle and wind direction for the evening high tide cycle. Areas outside of the Coastal Flood Watch area may see some pockets of minor coastal flooding at the time of the evening high tide cycle.

Hurricane Force Wind Warnings and Storm Warnings are in effect for the Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island coastlines. Mariners should remain in port until this storm has safely passed. See the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook for specific areas that are under coastal warnings.

Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency’s State EOC and Region 2 HQ will be doing a limited activation starting at 7 AM with RACES support requested for these facilities. Local ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of this significant ocean storm and seek advice from local ARES and RACES leadership on any possible activation. Some local town/city EOC’s are going to be active for this significant storm starting Saturday Morning.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will occur starting at 7 AM Saturday and last through late Saturday Night/early Sunday Morning. We will be looking for reports per the SKYWARN reporting criteria from any and all Amateur Radio Operators and SKYWARN Spotters. We will be utilizing the New England Reflector system on EchoLink *NEW-ENG*/IRLP 9123 and monitoring various SKYWARN Frequencies throughout the day. The latest SKYWARN Frequency list can be seen on the NWS Taunton SKYWARN Home page by clicking http://www.wx1box.org and clicking the Southern New England SKYWARN Frequency listing off of the Main Menu. We will have AIM screen name WX1BOX active and will be able to receive text email messages via WX1BOX@winlink.org and any pictures and other larger emails through this email address.

Barring a significant shift in watches and warnings or significant delay in the storm’s onset, this will be the last coordination message for this event as we move into activation mode. Below are the links to the various NWS Taunton Watches/Warnings and Outlooks:

Flood Watch:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

Coastal Flood Watch/Updated Statements:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordinaton Message #2

Hello to all….

….Hurricane Noel is transitioning into a large and powerful extratropical ocean storm. As this ocean storm passes to the northeast of Southern New England, it will bring heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds and the potential for pockets of moderate coastal flooding to north and east facing beaches of Southeastern New England….
….High Wind Watch Continues for Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island from Saturday Morning through Saturday Evening. Wind Advisories maybe required for areas outside of the High Wind Watch area….
….A Storm Warning is in effect for all coastal waters of East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Mariners should remain in port as this potentially dangerous storm to marine interests approaches….
….Potential exists for 2-3” of rainfall with isolated higher amounts. The greatest threat for the heaviest rainfall will be across extreme Southeastern New England….
….Potential exists for a minor coastal flood event with the potential for pockets of moderate coastal flooding if strong winds of 55 Knots or greater impact portions of Cape Cod and the Islands and East Coastal Massachusetts….
….SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely Saturday for as long as an 18 hour period….

At 5 AM EDT, the latest National Hurricane Center advisory on Hurricane Noel indicated that Noel is growing in size and in the process of becoming a very large and powerful extratropical Ocean Storm. The advisory urges interests along the US East Coast from North Carolina northward to closely monitor the progress of Noel as it makes the transition to extratropical status and monitor products from local NWS Forecast Offices. It also urges people in the Canadian Maritimes to monitor products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. Please see advisories and discussions from the National Hurricane Center per the links below:

http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html Hurricane Noel Public Advisory

http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html Hurricane Noel Technical Discussion

http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html Hurricane Noel Forecast/Advisory

http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html Hurricane Noel Wind Speed Probabilities

A High Wind Watch continues for Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island from Saturday Morning through Saturday Evening. The latest statement indicates the potential for sustained winds of 40-50 MPH with gusts to 75 MPH for Cape Cod and the Islands with sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH for much of the rest of the High Wind Watch area particularly near coastal areas. Winds of this magnitude are likely to cause widespread pockets of tree and power line damage with additional damage possible in Cape Cod and the Islands. The track of the transitioning to extratropical Noel will ultimately determine the intensity of the winds. A track closer to the coast would bring damaging winds more widespread over the region and result in the potential for more damage. A track further offshore would result in damaging winds confined to coastal areas. Tropical models bring the powerful ocean storm slightly closer to the coast than other models while non-tropical models bring it to a track similar to the NHC track of Noel.

A Storm Warning is in effect for all the coastal waters of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Mariners should remain in port as the extratropical storm that was one Hurricane Noel has the potential to be a dangerous and life threatening storm to the coastal waters.

Heavy rainfall is expected across the region with the potential of widespread 2-3” rainfall amounts over Eastern New England with isolated higher amounts over Southeast New England. It is noted that the NHC Advisory highlighted isolated rainfall amounts of 6” for portions of Eastern New England. This will continued to be monitored.

Widespread Minor Coastal Flooding is possible across North and east facing beaches of Eastern Massachusetts. There is the potential for pockets of moderate coastal flooding if strong winds of 55 Knots or greater impact portions of Cape Cod and the Islands and East Coastal Massachusetts. If 55 Knot or greater winds were to occur, this would allow seas to build to 30 feet allowing for a greater threat of pockets of moderate coastal flooding.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely Saturday for as long as an 18 hour period. The next update will be issued by 1130 PM this evening. Below are links to the NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Marine Weather Statement:

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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