Storm Coordination Message #3 – 3/28/2010 at 750 PM Update

Hello to all..

..Major Slow Moving Coastal Storm to Affect the region with heavy rainfall, the potential for significant river/stream/urban flooding, minor to moderate coastal flooding and a period of strong winds..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect for Southern New Hampshire, Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and all of Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands and Block Island Rhode Island. The potential now exists for 3-6″ of rain with isolated higher amounts with widespread moderate to potentially pockets of major river, stream, and urban flooding..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the northern part of Narragansett Bay from 6-10 AM for the Monday Morning High Tide. Coastal flooding at the time of high tide remains a potential threat over a wider part of the South Coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island for the Monday Evening high tide shifting to East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for the Tuesday Afternoon and Evening high tides..
..A period of strong winds may occur along parts of the Southern New England Coast line Tuesday Morning with a Wind Advisory likely to be required..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely for an extended period of time. Activation will commence at 3 PM Monday Afternoon and is likely to last straight through late Tuesday Evening..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of this situation and seek advice from local leadership..

A slow-moving coastal storm will take aim on Southern New England in the Monday through Wednesday Morning timeframe. It will bring a myriad of weather hazards with the biggest threats being river, stream and urban flooding of a widespread moderate with pockets of major flooding and coastal flooding at the time of high tide. A period of strong winds could also occur on the coastline. The following is a breakdown of the weather hazards.

River/Stream/Urban Flood Threat:
A Flood Watch remains in effect for Southern New Hampshire, Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands and Block Island RI. With latest model runs since the previous coordination message, it is now expected that 3-6″ of rain with isolated higher amounts are likely across much of the Flood Watch area though heavier axes of the heaviest rainfall have yet to be totally confirmed. It appears that area from the Merrimack River area through the Connecticut River Valley have the highest potential for significant and potentially major flooding. That said, rivers remain very high from all the rainfall seen in the month of March. Therefore, widespread moderate to potentially major flooding are likely across portions of the flood watch area beyond this more favored region and this will include urban areas as well. This situation should be watched very closely across the entire Flood Watch area.

Coastal Flood Threat:
The coastal flood threat will start on the South Coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island as high astronomical tides combine with strong winds to allow for minor coastal flooding along south and east facing coasts. The South Coast Minor Coastal Flood threat as shifted to the Monday Evening high tide versus the morning high tide with the exception of the north shore of Narragansett Bay where a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 6-10 AM for the possibility of pockets of minor coastal flooding in that area. For the Monday Evening timeframe, a more widespread minor coastal flood event is possible from Point Judith RI through Wareham, Massachusetts. Winds will then shift more towards the east and coupled with the high astronomical tides could bring widespread minor to potentially pockets of moderate coastal flooding to East Coastal Massachusetts during the Tuesday Afternoon and possibly the Tuesday Evening high tides as well.

Wind Threat:
A period of wind gusts to 50 MPH may occur during the storm. The timeframe of impact of these winds appears to be Tuesday Morning and odds are increasing for a Wind Advisory to be issued for parts of the coastal plain as we get closer to this timeframe.

SKYWARN Activation Status:
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 3 PM Monday Afternoon and will likely require overnight operations Monday Night into Tuesday Morning with activation likely continuing through late Tuesday Evening. Further fine-tuning of the SKYWARN Activation status will occur as we get into this event. ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of this situation and seek advice from local leadership.

The next coordination message will be issued 12 PM Monday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, Flood Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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