Hurricane Earl Post Storm Report and Analysis Including Link to Eastern Region Communications Test Results

Hello to all…

The following is the post storm report and analysis on Hurricane Earl and his impact to the Caribbean Islands, North Carolina, Southeast New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Hurricane Earl was the second major hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic Season with the first being Danielle and Danielle was a system that only affected shipping interests out at sea.

Earl passed through the Northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday August 31st, 2010. The storm’s worst effects were over St. Kitts, St. Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, and Anguilla where an 88 MPH measured wind gust occurred before the wind instrument malfunctioned. Earl downed numerous trees and power lines with some minor structural damage noted. Rainfall of 7-9″ was common over this area and into Antigua where a 45 MPH measured gust was noted by an Amateur Operator on the island. Cars stuck in flood waters from the rain were reported along with storm surge issues on vulnerable portions of the islands. A 60 knot measured wind gust was recorded on the US Virgin Islands as well. Amateur Radio Operators and the stormcarib.com storm blogging network were critical in obtaining reports from this area.

Earl would traverse the open Atlantic Ocean waters northeast of the Bahamas before coming within 125 miles of the mid-atlantic coast of Eastern North Carolina where hurricane warnings were issued for Eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks with tropical storm watches and warnings north and south of portions of Eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks of North Carolina. During this timeframe, Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings would be issued over the course of Wednesday and Thursday for portions of New England. Earl was a dangerous Categrory IV hurricane at the time. The forecast was only for slow weakening and the storm to pass within 50-100 miles southeast of Nantucket Island and as a strong Category II to Category III hurricane. Given a system of that magnitude, it was expected that the system would stay fairly symmetrical and while Southern New England would be on the side of the storm with weaker winds, high sustained tropical storm force winds with hurricane force wind gusts were expected particularly in the area of the hurricane warning from Plymouth to Westport Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands. Areas west and north of this region were expected to see tropical storm force winds in gusts and possibly low-end sustained tropical storm force winds.

As Earl approached North Carolina, Measured sustained winds to high-end tropical storm force with hurricane force wind gusts were recorded with storm surge in the 2-5 foot range. Rainfall was largely under 1″ except in the outer banks of North Carolina where 3.5-4.5″ rainfall amounts occurred. Earl’s eye would never make landfall in the outer banks of North Carolina and would stay offshore within 125 miles of the Outer Banks. Over the course of this time, Earl weakened considerably going from a Category-IV hurricane on Thursday Morning to a Category-I hurricane by Friday Morning due to southwest shear and dry air intrusion into the system. This was expected on Wednesday but instead the system intensified which raised concerns that Earl would affect the region as a stronger system but on Thursday these factors finally took their toll on Earl. Due to the rapid weakening, this made the storm that much more asymmetric and a much weaker system as it affected Southeast New England Friday Afternoon and particularly Friday Night and this meant the heavy rain would be along and west of the center with most of the wind along and east of the center of Earl with weaker winds to the west of the center. It is noted that non-tropical models had a better handle on the weakening wind field on the west side of the system and the asymmetry of the system. Also, while the system was moving at about 20 MPH, this is not the noted acceleration of historic New England hurricanes of the 1930s-1950s or even Hurricane Bob in 1991 and Hurricane Gloria in 1995 which moved at rates between 30 and 60 MPH. This meant more weakening due to cooler water temperatures despite those water tempratures being warmer than normal and the shear and dry air over the system also had significant impacts on Earl. Earl would weaken to a tropical storm as it made its closest approach to Southeast New England resulting in hurricane warnings being changed to tropical storm warnings over Cape Cod and the Islands late Friday Evening after the Hurricane Warnings were changed to Tropical Storm Warnings over the Hull to Plymouth area and from Woods Hole to Westport, Massachusetts late Friday Morning.

When Earl approached, winds only reached low-end tropical storm force criteria on Nantucket Island with tropical storm force winds in gusts over South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod. Measured wind gusts of 42 MPH were recorded on West Island Fairhaven, 41 MPH on Marstons Mills section Barnstable, Massachusetts, 44 MPH measured gust on Marthas Vineyard and 41 MPH measured gust in the Siasconsett portion of Nantucket Island. Storm surge from swells closed some shore roads in Newport, RI, Dennis, Mass. and threatened some homes with flooded beach areas in the Madaket section of Nantucket Island. A couple of isolated 50 Knot gusts were seen at the elevated platform at Horseshoe Shoals Nantucket Island and at the Kalmas weather station in Barnstable, Mass. via weatherflow with a 54 MPH gust measured at Nantucket Airport along with a sustained wind of 41 MPH. The winds downed isolated trees and caused isolated power outages in Chatham, Dennis, and on the Bourne/Falmouth line.

The bigger story was heavy rainfall with 2-4″ with isolated 6″ amounts occurring from West Island Fairhaven through Barnstable County, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Islands. This resulted in urban flooding over portions of Cape Cod shutting down a few roads and intersections. The combination of storm surge and rainfall causing minor street flooding issues on Nantucket Island. Several flooded basements were reported on Martha’s Vineyard Island in Edgartown and portions of Cape Cod. Rainfall in the Greater New Bedford area west of Fairhaven through South Coastal Rhode Island and up through Taunton were between 1-2″ of rain with amounts 1″ or less over the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts, North-Central Rhode Island, Central Massachusetts and Northeast Connecticut. The storm departed Southeast New England by 5 AM where all tropical warnings were lowered for the area. Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets were instrumental in gathering many of these reports with non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters calling in their rainfall reports in on Saturday Morning. Amateur Radio Nets were active on the 146.955-Barnstable, 145.49-Fairhaven Repeaters with the New England Reflector IRLP/Echolink system active and lined with the *WX_TALK* Echolink Conference Node: 7203/IRLP 9219 system for the VoIP Hurricane Net. HF was active on 3943 KHz LSB with the Hurricane Watch Net active on 14.325 MHz. Other repeaters and frequencies in the region were on stand-by for Earl.

The storm would approach Nova Scotia Canada on Saturday Morning. Earl would deviate slightly from his track and the center would come closer to the heavily populated Halifax Nova Scotia Canada area. The right side of Earl’s circulation with the strongest wind fields would affect the Greater Halifax area and much of Nova Scotia into the Prince Edward Islands. Weather stations in the area reported high-end tropical storm force sustained winds with frequent hurricane force wind gusts. This resulted in widespread tree and power line damage in the Greater Halifax Nova Scotia Canada with some minor structural damage noted to roofs of homes either from fallen trees and spotty direct roof damage from the winds. Contact was made with VE1JBL-Jim Langille, Radio Amateurs of Canada Maritime Section Manager using Amateur Radio Internet linking technology and Jim was at the Halifax Emergency Operations Center reporting on the severe damage done by Earl. The Canadian Hurricane Centre and National Hurricane Center were at odds as to whether the system made landfall as a Category-1 hurricane or a high-end tropical storm. It is noted that the difference in intensity between the two characterizations, however, is minimal. During the height of the storm, 216,000 people were without power. Outages were down to 70,000 by Sunday Morning and at the writing of this report were dropped to just 3,400 people. Earl would become extratropical over Newfoundland and Labrador Canada late Saturday Evening.

While Earl spared Southern New England severe conditions, this offered up a very good exercise to practice and put into place emergency response plans should a severe hurricane strike on the region. Many good things came out of practicing and executing preparedness plans. Where we still have another 4-5 weeks for New England to potentially be stricken by a tropical system, it was good to have an oppportunity to practice beyond an exericse with a real threat from a system like Earl despite its rapid weakening in the 24-36 hours prior to his arrival to our region. We hope all people will prepare the same way next time as limits in the science particularly with the intensity of these systems are still an area of research for tropical systems regardless of whether they are in the tropics or at higher latitudes. Combine the fact that Earl tracked through the higher latitudes and it wasn’t clear when the acceleration of the system would commence caused the prediction of the intensity of Earl to become that much more problematic. The track guidance between Nantucket Island and the 40 North/70 West benchmark went as expected.

Part of the preparedness steps included the Amateur Radio HF Eastern Region Communications Test which received extremely strong participation with over 50 Amateurs checking into the test and thoroughly impressed Tim Rutkowski-KB4FNQ, the Amateur Operator for the Eletronic Systems Division who requested this test be completed. Below is a link to the Communications test results where the signal report listed by each station was the signal of how they heard Eastern Region Headquarters and Tim Rutkowski-KB4FNQ’s comments:

http://www.wx1box.org/files/erh_comms_test_results.txt

I really appreciated the contacts, yesterday.  It was the first time the
station at ERH was tested in an operational mode.  I never expected the
amount of cooperation that was received from your group. The three
stations that I received the best are: KA1IOR, K1CCT and W1RV. I will be
looking into other options to improve system performance.  Again, thanks
for all your help.

Tim Rutkowski, ER EPM

A huge thank you to all SKYWARN Spotters, Amateur Radio Operators and Emergency Management personnel for their response to Hurricane Earl and the threat posed to the region. Below are some reference links and supporting information for this report including the NWS Taunton Local Storm Reports, NWS Taunton Public Information Statement on ranfall and Hurricane Earl Post Tropical Cyclone report:

StormCarib:
http://stormcarib.com/

Amateur Radio VoIP Hurricane Net Report Viewer:
http://report.voipwx.net/qilan/nhcwx/list_VOIP_records?auth=OK

NWS Newport, North Carliona Storm Summary Information:
http://www.wx1box.org/files/nws_moorehead_city_pns.txt

Eastern Massachusetts ARES Stand-By Activation Statement:
http://ares.ema.arrl.org/node/530

Eastern Massachusetts ARES Stand-by Activation Cancellation Statement:
http://ares.ema.arrl.org/node/531

Eastern Massachusetts ARES Situation Report to ARRL Headquarters:
http://www.arrl.org/news/massachusetts-ares-prepares-as-a-now-weakened-hurricane-earl-approaches

Nova Scotia Emergency Management Situation Report Archive:
http://gov.ns.ca/news/details.asp?id=20100905001

Nova Scotia Power Company Storm Updates:
http://www.nspower.ca/en/stormupdates.aspx

Canadian Hurricane Centre Hurricane Information Statement Links Archive (Statements on 9/4/10 at 11:59, 1457, 1803, 2055 list reports of damage and wind speed information):
http://www.ns.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/bulletins_e.html

000
NWUS51 KBOX 041624
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1223 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
..DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     STORM SURGE      NEWPORT                 41.49N 71.32W
09/03/2010  E0.00 FT         NEWPORT            RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            OCEAN DRIVE FROM FORT ADAMS TO BAILY BEACH CLOSED WITH
            SEAWATER AND DEBRIS FROM THE SEAWALL OVER THE ROAD.

0405 PM     STORM SURGE      NANTUCKET               41.27N 70.10W
09/03/2010  E0.00 FT         NANTUCKET          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            MADAKET BEACH UNDERWATER…SEAWATER INUNDATING LONG POND.

0730 PM     TROPICAL STORM   ORLEANS                 41.79N 70.00W
09/03/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROUTE 6 FROM EXIT 12 TO THE ROTARY.

1010 PM     TROPICAL STORM   HARWICH                 41.69N 70.07W
09/03/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 28 NEAR EVELYNS WAY…PARTIALLY
            BLOCKING ROUTE 28.

1148 PM     TROPICAL STORM   CHATHAM                 41.68N 69.96W
09/03/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING TRAINING FIELD ROAD.

1157 PM     FLOOD            CHATHAM                 41.68N 69.96W
09/03/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TEN INCHES OF WATER FLOODED ORLEANS ROAD.

1234 AM     FLOOD            HARWICH                 41.69N 70.07W
09/04/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            A FOOT OF WATER INUNDATED THE INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 137
            AND PLEASANT BAY ROAD.

0100 AM     TROPICAL STORM   BOURNE                  41.73N 70.61W
09/04/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 28A ON THE BOURNE/FALMOUTH TOWN LINE.

0138 AM     TROPICAL STORM   5 SSE BARNSTABLE        41.63N 70.28W
09/04/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   MESONET

            MESONET AT KALMUS MASS RECORDED WIND GUSTS TO 58 MPH.

0210 AM     TROPICAL STORM   13 NNW NANTUCKET        41.44N 70.19W
09/04/2010                   ANZ232             MA   BUOY

            ACK SOUND BUOY 44020 RECORDED SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH.

0225 AM     TROPICAL STORM   NANTUCKET               41.27N 70.10W
09/04/2010                   NANTUCKET          MA   ASOS

            ACK ASOS RECORDED SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH.

0321 AM     TROPICAL STORM   13 S HYANNIS            41.47N 70.31W
09/04/2010                   ANZ232             MA   MESONET

            HORSESHOE SHOALS CAPE WIND TOWER IN ACK SOUND RECORDED A
            WIND GUST OF 60 MPH.

&&

$$

KAB

000
NWUS51 KBOX 040756
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
355 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
..DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     STORM SURGE      NANTUCKET               41.27N 70.10W
09/03/2010  E0.00 FT         NANTUCKET          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            MADAKET BEACH UNDERWATER…SEAWATER INUNDATING LONG POND.

0730 PM     TROPICAL STORM   ORLEANS                 41.79N 70.00W
09/03/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROUTE 6 FROM EXIT 12 TO THE ROTARY.

1010 PM     TROPICAL STORM   HARWICH                 41.69N 70.07W
09/03/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 28 NEAR EVELYNS WAY…PARTIALLY
            BLOCKING ROUTE 28.

1148 PM     TROPICAL STORM   CHATHAM                 41.68N 69.96W
09/03/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING TRAINING FIELD ROAD.

1157 PM     FLOOD            CHATHAM                 41.68N 69.96W
09/03/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TEN INCHES OF WATER FLOODED ORLEANS ROAD.

1234 AM     FLOOD            HARWICH                 41.69N 70.07W
09/04/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            A FOOT OF WATER INUNDATED THE INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 137
            AND PLEASANT BAY ROAD.

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       YARMOUTH                41.71N 70.23W
09/04/2010  E3.74 INCH       BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EASTHAM                 41.83N 69.97W
09/04/2010  E2.01 INCH       BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HARWICH                 41.69N 70.07W
09/04/2010  E2.58 INCH       BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FALMOUTH                41.55N 70.61W
09/04/2010  E2.30 INCH       BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST TISBURY            41.38N 70.68W
09/04/2010  E2.91 INCH       DUKES              MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BARNSTABLE              41.70N 70.30W
09/04/2010  E2.27 INCH       BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            MARSTON MILLS.

0100 AM     TROPICAL STORM   BOURNE                  41.73N 70.61W
09/04/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 28A ON THE BOURNE/FALMOUTH TOWN LINE.

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NANTUCKET               41.27N 70.10W
09/04/2010  E2.18 INCH       NANTUCKET          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0138 AM     TROPICAL STORM   5 SSE BARNSTABLE        41.63N 70.28W
09/04/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   MESONET

            MESONET AT KALMUS MASS RECORDED WIND GUSTS TO 58 MPH.

0321 AM     TROPICAL STORM   13 S HYANNIS            41.47N 70.31W
09/04/2010                   ANZ232             MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            HORSESHOE SHOALS RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH.

&&

$$

RLG

000
NOUS41 KBOX 041828
PNSBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-050621-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
225 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS FROM HURRICANE EARL THAT AFFECTED OUR REGION.

APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS…COOPERATIVE
OBSERVERS…SKYWARN SPOTTERS…COCORAHS OBSERVERS AND MEDIA FOR
THESE REPORTS.  THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                     RAINFALL       OF
                     (INCHES)   MEASUREMENT

MASSACHUSETTS

…BARNSTABLE COUNTY…
   CENTERVILLE           5.44   630 AM   9/4   WQRC – MEDIA
   CENTERVILLE           5.35   132 PM   9/4   SPOTTER
   S. YARMOUTH           5.17   700 AM   9/4   COCORAHS
   YARMOUTH              5.07   332 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO
   WELLFLEET             5.06   630 AM   9/4   WQRC – MEDIA
   OSTERVILLE            4.75   630 AM   9/4   WQRC – MEDIA
   HYANNIS               4.47   700 AM   9/4   ASOS
   EAST FALMOUTH         4.20   747 AM   9/4   SPOTTER
   WEST HARWICH          4.13   805 AM   9/4   SPOTTER
   BREWSTER              4.10   900 AM   9/4   SPOTTER
   WELLFLEET             4.05   640 AM   9/4   SPOTTER
   WEST BARNSTABLE       4.00   630 AM   9/4   WQRC – MEDIA
   CHATHAM               3.51   700 AM   9/4   ASOS
   ORLEANS               3.50   630 AM   9/4   WQRC – MEDIA
   EAST HARWICH          3.40   336 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO
   CHATHAM               3.35   717 AM   9/4   NWS COOP
   EASTHAM               3.19   329 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO
   FALMOUTH              3.18   700 AM   9/4   COCORAHS
   EAST SANDWICH         2.90   700 AM   9/4   NWS COOP
   EAST FALMOUTH         2.77   337 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO
   WOODS HOLE            2.76   600 AM   9/4   NWS COOP

…BRISTOL COUNTY…
   FAIRHAVEN             2.44   339 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO

…DUKES COUNTY…
   EDGARTOWN             6.21   730 AM   9/4   NWS COOP
   VINEYARD HAVEN        4.30   700 AM   9/4   MVY ASOS
   VINEYARD HAVEN        3.95   700 AM   9/4   COCORAHS
   WEST TISBURY          3.45   337 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO

…NANTUCKET COUNTY…
   NANTUCKET             2.73   338 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO
   NANTUCKET             2.29   700 AM   9/4   ASOS

…PLYMOUTH COUNTY…
   DUXBURY               2.24   630 AM   9/4   SPOTTER
   PLYMOUTH              2.16   331 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO
   DUXBURY               2.15   330 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO

********************SUSTAINED WIND SPEED ********************

LOCATION SUSTAINED WIND SPEED    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                                    OF
                        (MPH)   MEASUREMENT

MASSACHUSETTS

…BARNSTABLE COUNTY…
   HYANNIS                 31   135 AM   9/4   ASOS

…NANTUCKET COUNTY…
   NANTUCKET               41   225 AM   9/4   ASOS
   NANTUCKET               31  1104 PM   9/3   ASOS

…NANTUCKET SOUND…
   HORSESHOE SHOALS        48   251 AM   9/4   CAPE WIND
   BUOY 44020              40   210 AM   9/4   NDBC
   NANTUCKET HARBOR        31   218 AM   9/4   NOS NTKM3

***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************

LOCATION            PEAK WIND    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                         GUST       OF
                        (MPH)   MEASUREMENT

MASSACHUSETTS

…BARNSTABLE COUNTY…
   HYANNIS                 58   138 AM   9/4   KALMUS MESONET
   HYANNIS                 47   129 AM   9/4   ASOS

…NANTUCKET COUNTY…
   NANTUCKET               54   223 AM   9/4   ASOS

…NANTUCKET SOUND…
   HORSESHOE SHOALS        60   321 AM   9/4   CAPE WIND
   BUOY 44020              52   250 AM   9/4   NDBC

$$

KAB

287
ACUS71 KBOX 042032 CCA
PSHBOX

POST TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT…HURRICANE EARL…COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010

NOTE: THE DATA SHOWN HERE ARE PRELIMINARY….AND SUBJECT TO UPDATES
AND CORRECTIONS AS APPROPRIATE.

THIS REPORT INCLUDES EVENTS OCCURRING WHEN WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS
WERE IN EFFECT FOR EARL.

COUNTIES INCLUDED…BARNSTABLE…NANTUCKET…DUKES…PLYMOUTH…
NEWPORT

A. LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURE/MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AND PEAK GUSTS
———————————————————————
METAR OBSERVATIONS…
NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS 10 METERS AND WIND AVERAGING IS 2 MINUTES
———————————————————————
LOCATION  ID    MIN    DATE/     MAX      DATE/     PEAK    DATE/
LAT  LON        PRES   TIME      SUST     TIME      GUST    TIME
DEG DECIMAL     (MB)   (UTC)     (KT)     (UTC)     (KT)    (UTC)
———————————————————————
KHYA – HYANNIS MA                                                  
41.67 -70.28                    010/027  04/0535   360/041 04/0529 

KACK – NANTUCKET MA                                                
41.25 -70.06                    330/036  04/0625   330/047 04/0623 

KMVY – WEST TISBURY MA                                             
41.39 -70.61                    040/029  04/0135   030/038 04/0134 

KPVC – PROVINCETOWN MA                                             
42.07 -70.22     29.2 04/0635 I 020/024  04/0655 I 030/035 04/0555 I

REMARKS:

NON-METAR OBSERVATIONS…
NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IN METERS AND WIND AVERAGING PERIOD IN
MINUTES INDICATED UNDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IF KNOWN
———————————————————————
LOCATION  ID    MIN    DATE/     MAX      DATE/     PEAK    DATE/
LAT  LON        PRES   TIME      SUST     TIME      GUST    TIME
DEG DECIMAL     (MB)   (UTC)     (KT)     (UTC)     (KT)    (UTC)
———————————————————————
HYANNIS                                                           
41.63 -70.28     29.1 04/0641   003/033  04/0538 I 003/050 04/0538 
                                     
REMARKS: KALMUS MESONET SITE.

 

B. MARINE OBSERVATIONS…
NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IN METERS AND WIND AVERAGING PERIOD IN
MINUTES INDICATED UNDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IF KNOWN
———————————————————————
LOCATION  ID    MIN    DATE/     MAX      DATE/     PEAK    DATE/
LAT  LON        PRES   TIME      SUST     TIME      GUST    TIME
DEG DECIMAL     (MB)   (UTC)     (KT)     (UTC)     (KT)    (UTC)
———————————————————————
NTKM3 – NANTUCKET HARBOR                                           
41.29  -70.10    29.2 04/0712   340/027  04/0618   350/039 04/0630 
                                   8.5
 
44020 – NANTUCKET SOUND                                            
41.44  -70.19    29.2 04/0750 I 347/035  04/0610   350/045 04/0602 
                                   5
 
44018 – BUOY 30NM E OF NANTUCKET MA                                
41.26  -69.31    28.9 04/0550   293/031  04/0920   290/039 04/0934 
                                   5
 
44008 – BUOY 54NM SE OF NANTUCKET MA                               
40.50  -69.25    28.7 04/0450   284/040  04/0810   290/052 04/0802 
                                   5
 
44024 – NORTHEAST CHANNEL GOMOOS                                   
42.31  -65.93    28.6 04/1104 I 150/043  04/1004   150/054 04/1004 
                                   4
 
HORSESHOE SHOAL – CAPE WIND                                        
41.47  -70.31    29.2 04/0432   333/042  04/0651   334/052 04/0721 
                                   20
 
REMARKS:

C. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1100 UTC SEP 03 UNTIL 1100 UTC SEP 04
———————————————————————
CITY/TOWN                    COUNTY               ID         RAINFALL
LAT LON                                                       (IN)  
DEG DECIMAL
———————————————————————
EDGARTOWN                    DUKES                             6.21 
41.38  -70.52

2 SSE YARMOUTH               BARNSTABLE                        5.17 
41.68  -70.20

WELLFLEET                    BARNSTABLE                        5.06 
41.93  -70.03

HYANNIS                      BARNSTABLE          KHYA          4.47 
41.67  -70.28

1 ESE VINEYARD HAVEN         DUKES                             3.95 
41.45  -70.61

CHATHAM                      BARNSTABLE          KCQX          3.51 
41.69  -69.99

ORLEANS                      BARNSTABLE                        3.50 
41.79  -70.00

1 S CHATHAM                  BARNSTABLE                        3.35 
41.66  -69.96

3 NNW FALMOUTH               BARNSTABLE                        3.18 
41.59  -70.63

3 SSE SANDWICH               BARNSTABLE                        2.90 
41.71  -70.47

3 WSW FALMOUTH               BARNSTABLE                        2.76 
41.53  -70.66

FAIRHAVEN                    BRISTOL                           2.44 
41.65  -70.82

NANTUCKET                    NANTUCKET           KACK          2.29 
41.25  -70.06

DUXBURY                      PLYMOUTH                          2.24 
42.04  -70.67

DUXBURY                      PLYMOUTH                          2.24 
42.04  -70.67

REMARKS: RAINFALL REPORTS TAKEN FROM NWS CO-OP REPORTS…ASOS…
SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND COCORAHS OBSERVATIONS. LIST IS REPRESENTATIVE
BY COUNTY… BUT NOT EXHAUSTIVE. OTHER RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS WERE
RECEIVED.

 

D. INLAND FLOODING…
———————————————————————
BARNSTABLE…ORLEANS ROAD WAS REPORTED FLOODED IN CHATHAM. ROUTE 137
IN HARWICH WAS ALSO INUNDATED AT PLEASANT BAY ROAD.

———————————————————————

E. MAXIMUM STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE…
OFFICIAL TIDE GAUGES NOTED WITH LEADING G
———————————————————————

COUNTY           CITY/TOWN        SURGE   TIDE   DATE/   BEACH      
                 OR LOCATION      (FT)    (FT)   TIME    EROSION    
———————————————————————
BARNSTABLE     G CHATHAM           2.05   2.83  04/0748  UNKNOWN  

NANTUCKET      G NANTUCKET         2.21   2.50  04/0636  UNKNOWN  

BARNSTABLE     G WOODS HOLE        1.57   2.12  04/0536  UNKNOWN  

BRISTOL        G FALL RIVER        1.55   2.49  04/0200  UNKNOWN  

SUFFOLK        G BOSTON            1.92   3.13  04/0636  UNKNOWN  

REMARKS:

 

F. TORNADOES…
———————————————————————
(DIST)CITY/TOWN              COUNTY           DATE/         EF SCALE
LAT LON (DEG DECIMAL                          TIME(UTC)    (IF KNOWN)
DESCRIPTION                                                         
———————————————————————

G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY…
———————————————————————

COUNTY            DEATHS           INJURIES             EVACUATIONS 
DESCRIPTION
———————————————————————
NEWPORT                                                          

SPASHOVER WAS OBSERVED ON OCEAN DRIVE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ROAD WAS CLOSED FROM FORT ADAMS TO BAILY BEACH
WITH SEAWATER AND DEBRIS.

BARNSTABLE                                                       

TREES WERE DOWNED IN ORLEANS BLOCKING ROUTE 6 FROM EXIT 12 TO THE
ROTARY. TREES WERE ALSO DOWNED IN HARWICH ON ROUTE 28 PARTIALLY
BLOCKING THE ROAD NEAR EVELYNS WAY. A TREE ALSO BLOCKED TRAINING
FIELD ROAD IN CHATHAM. TREES WERE ALSO DOWNED ON ROUTE 28A ON THE
BOURNE/FALMOUTH TOWN LINE.

NANTUCKET                                                        

STORM SURGE INUNDATED MADAKET BEACH WITH SEAWATER ALSO INUNDATING
LONG POND.

$$

LEGEND:
I-INCOMPLETE DATA
E-ESTIMATED

MANNING/BUTTRICK

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator   
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Hurricane Earl Coordination Message #9…FINAL

Hello to all…

..Large Hurricane Earl Headed Toward Southeast New England. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings continue for much of the coastal areas..
..Large Hurricane Earl Threatens Southern New England with the potential for sustained tropical storm force winds particularly in Southeast New England but much of Eastern New England could be affected with tropical storm force winds in gusts and the potential for a period of hurricane force winds particularly over portions of Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyeard and Nantucket Island. Hurricane force wind gusts could occur as far north as Plymouth and as far west as Westport, Massachusetts..
..A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Hull, around Cape Cod to Westport Massachusetts including Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard Islands..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from west of Westport Massachusetts to New Haven Connecticut including Block Island Rhode Island..
..A Tropical Storm Wind Warning is in effect for Northern Bristol and Western Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Hull Massachusetts to the Mouth of the Merrimack River Massachusetts and from Stonington Maine to Eastport Maine..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands from 2 PM Friday Afternoon through late tonight..
..Track guidance is gradually coalesing between the 40 North/70 West benchmark and between Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Islands up through Cape Cod. Deviations in the forecast track could mean greater or lesser impact to Southern New England and there is still is up to 50-75 nautical mile error in the forecast track at this stage..
..All Emergency Management and Public Safety personnel, Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of major Hurricane Earl. People should review hurricane/tropical storm safety tips now as a precaution..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net along with WX4NHC, Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will activate at 2 PM This Afternoon for Earl’s closest path to New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM ET Friday lasting through Saturday Morning based on the current track and intensity of Hurricane Earl. Massachusetts State EOC RACES and MEMA RACES Regional Office activation is slated to occur Friday Morning. Eastern Massachusetts ARES will be placed on stand-by starting at 7 AM ET Friday Morning lasting through 7 PM Saturday Evening..

Models are gradually coalesing on a solution putting Earl anywhere from around the 40 North/70 West Benchmark and then east of Cape Cod to a track over Cape Cod and between Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Islands. There remain some eastward and westward outliers but the general consensus of models is between those two areas. There remains a 50-75 nautical mile error which can still result in greater or lesser impact over the region. Any additional westward trends in the models or track will need to be monitored closely. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for portions of Eastern New England based on the latest projections.

The following is a rough estimation of impacts over the Tropical Storm Watch/Warning and Hurricane Warning areas based on the current track and intensity of the hurricane and its extremely large size. This could change based on hurricane intensity and track of the system:

Hurricane Warning Area (Plymouth Massachusetts through Westport Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard islands):

This region will see high-end sustained tropical storm force winds with hurricane force wind gusts. It is now looking more likely that the Outer Cape and particularly Nantucket Island would have the potential to also see a brief period of sustained hurricane force winds and gusts pending the eventual track of Earl. Rainfall will be very heavy with the potential for a swath of 2-4″ rainfall with isolated higher amounts as high as 6″. Concerning Rainfall, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued from 2 PM through late tonight for South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Storm surge will be most prevelant over north and east facing beaches with a 2-4 foot storm surge. Locations in Provincetown and Wellfleet could see greater impact if the track is a bit closer and the storm surge may occur some time after storm passage depending on that track. Along the South Coast of Massachusetts, storm surge will be less of a threat due to the expected Northeast winds.

Hurricane Warning Area (Hull to Plymouth Massachusetts)
This area could see sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and possibly slightly higher gusts. The Hurricane Warning has been issued to guard against a more westward solution of Earl. If that were to verify, hurricane force conditions sustained or in gusts may occur but the current solution would keep most of that to the south and east of this region. Rainfall in this area is likely to be 2-4″ with isolated higher amounts of 6″ possible. A Storm Surge of 1-2 feet is possible in this area.

Tropical Storm Warning (West of Westport Massachusetts to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Block Island RI and points west covering South Central Rhode Island)
This area could see sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts up to 50-55 MPH particularly along the South Coast of Rhode Island and Block Island RI. A Storm Surge of 1-3 feet could occur particularly in north and east facing beach locations. Rainfall of 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts are possible in this area.

Tropical Storm Wind Warning (Northern Bristol and Western Plymouth Counties)
In this area, tropical storm force winds sustained at 30-40 MPH with gusts of 60 MPH are likely. Closer to the Cape Cod Canal, sustained winds of 40-50 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH or possibly hurricance force are likely. Rainfall of 2-4″ with isolated higher amount of up to 6″ are possible.

Tropical Storm Warning Area (Mouth of Merrimack River Massachusetts to Hull Massachusetts and from Watch Hill Rhode Island to Westport Massachusetts):
In this area, sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 40-50 MPH are likely along the immediate coast. Across the remainder of inland Eastern Massachusetts, winds will drop off significantly. Rainfall of 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts are possible but if a further west track were to materialize more wind could occur in portions of Eastern Massachusetts. It is noted that portions of Worcester County and Northeast Connecticut are expected to see lighter rainfall amounts of around 1″.

There remains several factors that will further determine the track and intesnity of Major Hurricane Earl that are still being scrutinized by the weather models are as follows:

1.) The strength and location of the Great Lakes trough and its interaction with Hurricane Earl
The strength and location of the Great Lakes trough and its interaction with Hurricane Earl will be critical. If the trough’s location is further west or not amplifying and interacting with Hurricane Earl, this would allow a closer to the coast track and more direct impact. If it amplifies and can interact with Earl, it would result in a greater push to the east.

2.) The sharpness and locations of the turns Earl will make
Depending on the sharpness and locations of Earl turns will determine the interaction with the Great Lakes trough and his eventual movement. Earl is currently moving to the North-Northeast and this will need to be monitored to see if there is any bending back to more northerly or if he transitions more northeastward earlier in time.

3.) Intensity of Hurricane Earl as it moves up the coast
Earl is now a Category-Two system and has lost his inner core. That being the case, Earl is still a large system and is expected to remain a large hurricane as it approaches Southeast New England. This should mean only gradual weakening over the course of the next 24 hours.

4.) Assymetry as it reaches our latitude and if Earl will be more symmetric than most New England type systems
The general rules of Hurricanes in New England are that the winds will shift more to the eastward side of the system with some winds but more heavy rain on the west side as the system becomes assymetric and does an extratropical transition. Comptuer models are indicating that will be the case here, however, Earl is a large hurricane and water temperatures off our coast are warmer than normal. This may allow Earl to keep more symmetry than normal and allow for more winds on the west side. This will need to be monitored with real-time satellite, radar and surface observations. So far, there remains strong winds on the west side of the system. Spotty tree damage was reported in New Jersey in the past couple hours with a 70 MPH wind gust at Dare County Regional Airport in North Carolina.

5.) Extratropical transition, where that occurs and how it affects the system
Given Earl is such a formidible tropical system, it is unlikely that Earl will start extratropical transition near us or it will start but the system will remain largely tropical. If it becomes more of a hybrid or starts the extratropical transition, this could also keep stronger winds west of the center. It is again something that will need to be monitored with real-time, satellite, radar and surface observations.

Swells and rip currents will become a very serious concern as Earl tracks closer to the region and this will be a problem extending through the Labor Day Holiday Weekend after Earl passes. There have been many times where offshore tropical systems have caused injuries or fatalities on the water from the surf and rip currents so folks swimming at area beaches over the next several days with the hot weather expected are advise to heed the advice of lifeguards and monitor NWS Taunton products for high surf advisory information. See link below for the the surf zone forecasts for more information and if High Surf Advisories are posted, that link will be posted and updated here:

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus51.KBOX.html

All Emergency Management and Public Safety personnel, Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of major Hurricane Earl. People should now be reviewing their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions as a precaution in inland areas and as a requirement along the coast. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips and an updated Public Information Statement of Safety Tips as well as a Tropical Terminology Public Information Statement listed via the links below:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1009011537.nous41.html

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net along with WX4NHC, Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will activate at 2 PM Friday for Northeast US impact. It is noted that the VoIP Hurricane Net will merge into one large command net with New England Echolink/IRLP operations as it approaches New England. Please see these web sites for information on the Hurricane Nets and the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC:

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

Voip Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

WX4NHC Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

From a spotting perspective, we will be looking for any and all reports per the SKYWARN reporting criteria. We’ll also be looking for lowest barometric pressure readings across Southeast New England. Also, pictures of damage and incidents as they occur in near real-time or shortly after release will be very helpful to media, emergency manamgement, the National Hurricane Center and the NWS Taunton Forecast Office. A reminder on SKYWARN Net frequencies for the region via the link below:

http://www.wx1box.org/node/37

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM ET Friday lasting through Saturday Morning based on the current track and intensity of Hurricane Earl. Massachusetts State EOC RACES and MEMA RACES Regional Office activation is slated to occur Friday Morning. Eastern Massachusetts ARES will be placed on stand-by starting at 7 AM ET Friday Morning lasting through 7 PM Saturday Evening.

The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Area Forecast Discussion and National Hurricane Center Advisory information on Earl are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Earl Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt32.KNHC.html

Hurricane Earl Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt42.KNHC.html

Hurricane Earl Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt22.KNHC.html

Hurricane Earl Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font12.KNHC.html

This will be the final Hurricane Earl Coordination Message as we move into SKYWARN Operations mode.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator           
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Read more

Hurricane Earl Coordination Message #8

Hello to all…

..Major Hurricane Earl Headed Toward Southeast New England. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings issued for portions of the region..
..Major Hurricane Earl Threatens Southern New England with the potential for sustained tropical storm force winds particularly in Southeast New England but much of Eastern New England could be affected with tropical storm force winds in gusts and the potential for a period of hurricane force winds particularly over portions of Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyeard and Nantucket Island. A further westward trend could bring hurricane force conditions as far north as Plymouth and as far west as Westport, Massachusetts..
..A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Hull, around Cape Cod to Westport Massachusetts including Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard Islands..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from west of Westport Massachusetts to New Haven Connecticut including Block Island Rhode Island..
..A Tropical Storm Wind Warning is in effect for Northern Bristol and Western Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts..
..A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Hull Massachusetts to the Mouth of the Merrimack River Massachusetts north to Eastport Maine..
..Track guidance is gradually coalesing between the 40 North/70 West benchmark and between Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Islands up through Cape Cod. Deviations in the forecast track could mean greater or lesser impact to Southern New England and there is still is up to 100 nautical mile error in the forecast track at this stage..
..All Emergency Management and Public Safety personnel, Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of major Hurricane Earl. People should review hurricane/tropical storm safety tips now as a precaution..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net along with WX4NHC, Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center activated at 4 PM Thursday Afternoon for Earl’s closest path to the Outer Banks and Eastern North Carolina, Eastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM ET Friday lasting through Saturday Morning based on the current track and intensity of Hurricane Earl. Massachusetts State EOC RACES and MEMA RACES Regional Office activation is slated to occur Friday Morning. Eastern Massachusetts ARES will be placed on stand-by starting at 7 AM ET Friday Morning lasting through 7 PM Saturday Evening..

Models are gradually coalesing on a solution putting Earl anywhere from around the 40 North/70 West Benchmark and then east of Cape Cod to a track over Cape Cod and between Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Islands. There remain some eastward and westward outliers but the general consensus of models is between those two areas. There remains a 100 nautical mile error which can still result in greater or lesser impact over the region. Any additional westward trends in the models or track will need to be monitored closely. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for portions of Southeast New England based on the latest projections.

The following is a rough estimation of impacts over the Tropical Storm Watch/Warning and Hurricane Warning areas based on the current track and intensity of the hurricane and its extremely large size. This could change based on hurricane intensity and track of the system:

Hurricane Warning Area (Plymouth Massachusetts through Westport Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard islands):

This region will see high-end sustained tropical storm force winds with hurricane force wind gusts. It is now looking more likely that the Outer Cape and particularly Nantucket Island would have the potential to also see sustained hurricane force winds and gusts pending the eventual track of Earl. Rainfall will be very heavy with the potential for a swath of 2-4″ rainfall with isolated higher amounts as high as 6″. Storm surge will be most prevelant over north and east facing beaches with a 2-4 foot storm surge. Locations in Provincetown and Wellfleet could see greater impact if the track is a bit closer and the storm surge may occur some time after storm passage depending on that track. Along the South Coast of Massachusetts, storm surge will be less of a threat due to the expected Northeast winds.

Hurricane Warning Area (Hull to Plymouth Massachusetts)
This area could see sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and possibly slightly higher gusts. The Hurricane Warning has been issued to guard against a more westward solution of Earl. If that were to verify, hurricane force conditions sustained or in gusts may occur but the current solution would keep most of that to the south and east of this region. Rainfall in this area is likely to be 2-4″ with isolated higher amounts of 6″ possible. A Storm Surge of 1-2 feet is possible in this area.

Tropical Storm Warning (West of Westport Massachusetts to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Block Island RI and points west covering South Central Rhode Island)
This area could see sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts up to 50-55 MPH particularly along the South Coast of Rhode Island and Block Island RI. A Storm Surge of 1-3 feet could occur particularly in north and east facing beach locations. Rainfall of 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts are possible in this area.

Tropical Storm Wind Warning (Northern Bristol and Western Plymouth Counties)

In this area, tropical storm force winds sustained at 30-40 MPH with gusts of 60 MPH are likely. Closer to the Cape Cod Canal, sustained winds of 40-50 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH or possibly hurricance force are likely. Rainfall of 2-4″ with isolated higher amount of up to 6″ are possible.

Tropical Storm Watch Area (Mouth of Merrimack River Massachusetts to Plymouth Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island including the Tropical Storm Inland Wind Watch for Northern Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties):

In this area, sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 40-50 MPH are possible along the immediate coast. Across the remainder of inland Eastern Massachusetts, winds will drop off significantly. Rainfall of 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts are possible but if a further west track were to materialize more wind could occur in portions of Eastern Massachusetts. It is noted that portions of Worcester County and Northeast Connecticut could see 1-2″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts.

There remains several factors that will further determine the track and intesnity of Major Hurricane Earl that are still being scrutinized by the weather models are as follows:

1.) The strength and location of the Great Lakes trough and its interaction with Hurricane Earl
The strength and location of the Great Lakes trough and its interaction with Hurricane Earl will be critical. If the trough’s location is further west or not amplifying and interacting with Hurricane Earl, this would allow a closer to the coast track and more direct impact. If it amplifies and can interact with Earl, it would result in a greater push to the east.

2.) The sharpness and locations of the turns Earl will make
Depending on the sharpness and locations of Earl turns will determine the interaction with the Great Lakes trough and his eventual movement. This will be especially true as Earl approaches the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Thursday Evening into Friday Morning and this will be a critical time in the track and impact of Hurricane Earl on Southern New England.

3.) Intensity of Hurricane Earl as it moves up the coast
The intensity of Hurricane Earl will now be controlled by eyewall replacement cycles and other shorter-term phenomenon that cannot be fully predicted. Earl has weakened a bit today but could expand in size depending on the evolution of the system under processes that are not very well understood. Unlike past hurricanes that have been much weaker as they approached New England, water temperatures are above normal and Earl is a very powerful and large hurricane. This is likely to result in greater impact from Earl then most tropical systems approaching New England because of its large size and intensity. In addition, the intensity of Earl may affect the movement of the system.

4.) Assymetry as it reaches our latitude and if Earl will be more symmetric than most New England type systems
The general rules of Hurricanes in New England are that the winds will shift more to the eastward side of the system with some winds but more heavy rain on the west side as the system becomes assymetric and does an extratropical transition. Comptuer models are indicating that will be the case here, however, Earl is a very intense hurricane and water temperatures off our coast are warmer than normal. This may allow Earl to keep more symmetry than normal and allow for more winds on the west side. This will need to be monitored with real-time satellite, radar and surface observations.

5.) Extratropical transition, where that occurs and how it affects the system
Given Earl is such a formidible tropical system, it is unlikely that Earl will start extratropical transition near us or it will start but the system will remain largely tropical. If it becomes more of a hybrid or starts the extratropical transition, this could also keep stronger winds west of the center. It is again something that will need to be monitored with real-time, satellite, radar and surface observations.

Swells and rip currents will become a very serious concern as Earl tracks closer to the region and this will be a problem extending through the Labor Day Holiday Weekend after Earl passes. There have been many times where offshore tropical systems have caused injuries or fatalities on the water from the surf and rip currents so folks swimming at area beaches over the next several days with the hot weather expected are advise to heed the advice of lifeguards and monitor NWS Taunton products for high surf advisory information. See link below for the the surf zone forecasts for more information and if High Surf Advisories are posted, that link will be posted and updated here:

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus51.KBOX.html

All Emergency Management and Public Safety personnel, Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of major Hurricane Earl. People should now be reviewing their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions as a precaution in inland areas and as a requirement along the coast in the Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watch areas. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips and an updated Public Information Statement of Safety Tips as well as a Tropical Terminology Public Information Statement listed via the links below:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1009011537.nous41.html

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net along with WX4NHC, Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center activated at 4 PM Thursday Afternoon for Earl’s closest path to the Outer Banks and Eastern North Carolina, Eastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula. These nets will likely activate again Friday for Earl’s closest path to New England. It is noted that the VoIP Hurricane Net will merge into one large command net with New England Echolink/IRLP operations as it approaches New England. Please see these web sites for information on the Hurricane Nets and the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC:

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

Voip Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

WX4NHC Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

From a spotting perspective, we will be looking for any and all reports per the SKYWARN reporting criteria. We’ll also be looking for lowest barometric pressure readings across Southeast New England. Also, pictures of damage and incidents as they occur in near real-time or shortly after release will be very helpful to media, emergency manamgement, the National Hurricane Center and the NWS Taunton Forecast Office. A reminder on SKYWARN Net frequencies for the region via the link below:

http://www.wx1box.org/node/37

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM ET Friday lasting through Saturday Morning based on the current track and intensity of Hurricane Earl. Massachusetts State EOC RACES and MEMA RACES Regional Office activation is slated to occur Friday Morning. Eastern Massachusetts ARES will be placed on stand-by starting at 7 AM ET Friday Morning lasting through 7 PM Saturday Evening.

The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Area Forecast Discussion and National Hurricane Center Advisory information on Earl are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Earl Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt32.KNHC.html

Hurricane Earl Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt42.KNHC.html

Hurricane Earl Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt22.KNHC.html

Hurricane Earl Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font12.KNHC.html

The final coordination message will likely be posted Friday Morning as we move to operations mode pending further computer model data on the track of Earl and significant updates to Earl’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator           
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org


Read more

Hurricane Earl Coordination Message #7

Hello to all…

..Major Hurricane Earl Track Shifted a Bit Westward in 5 AM Advisory package. Hurricane Watches expanded from Plymouth Westport, Massachusetts. Inland Tropical Storm Watches issued for Bristol and Plymouth Counties..
..Major Hurricane Earl Threatens Southern New England with the potential for sustained tropical storm force winds particularly in Southeast New England but much of Eastern New England could be affected with tropical storm force winds in gusts and the potential for a period of hurricane force winds particularly over portions of Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. A further westward trend could bring hurricane force conditions as far north as Plymouth and and as far west as Westport, Massachusetts..
..A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Plymouth to Westport Massachusetts including Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard Islands..
..A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Mouth of the Merrimack River Massachusetts to Plymouth Massachusetts and from Sandy Hook New Jersey to Woods Hole Massachusetts..
..Track guidance is gradually coalesing between the 40 North/70 West benchmark and Buzzards Bay Massachusetts. Deviations in the forecast track could mean greater or lesser impact to Southern New England and there is still is up to 100-125 nautical mile error in the forecast track at this stage. Southern New England is now in the ‘3-day cone’ regarding Earl’s eventual track..
..All Emergency Management and Public Safety personnel, Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of major Hurricane Earl. People should review hurricane/tropical storm safety tips now as a precaution..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net along with WX4NHC, Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will activate at 4 PM Thursday Afternoon for Earl’s closest path to the Outer Banks and Eastern North Carolina, Eastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Friday Morning into Saturday Morning based on the current track and intensity of Hurricane Earl. Massachusetts State EOC RACES and MEMA RACES Regional Office activation is slated to occur Friday Morning. Eastern Massachusetts ARES will be placed on stand-by starting at 7 AM ET Friday Morning lasting through 7 PM Saturday Evening..

Models are gradually coalesing on a solution putting Earl anywhere from around the 40 North/70 West Benchmark and then east of Cape Cod to a track over Cape Cod and between Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Islands. There remain some eastward and westward outliers but the general consensus of models is between those two areas. There remains a 100-125 nautical mile error which can still result in greater or lesser impact over the region. A continued westward trend has been noted with computer models with tracks anywhere from Buzzards Bay to the 40 North/70 West benchmark. This needs to be closely monitored for a more westward trend and greater impact to the region. It has resulted in an expansion of Hurricane Watches and they now cover from Plymouth to Westport, Massachusetts. 

The following is a rough estimation of impacts over the Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watch areas based on the current track and intensity of the hurricane and its extremely large size. This could change based on hurricane intensity and track of the system:

Hurricane Watch Area (Sagamore Beach to Woods Hole Cape Cod, Martha’s Vinyeard and Nantucket Islands):

This region will see high-end sustained tropical storm force winds with hurricane force wind gusts. It is now looking more likely that the Outer Cape and particularly Nantucket Island would have the potential to also see sustained hurricane force winds and gusts pending the eventual track of Earl. Rainfall will be very heavy with the potential for a swath of 3-6″ rainfall with isolated higher amounts. Storm surge will be most prevelant over north and east facing beaches with a 1-3 foot surge affected. Locations in Provincetown and Wellfleet could see greater impact if the track is a bit closer and the storm surge may occur some time after storm passage depending on that track.

Hurricane Watch Area (Plymouth to Sagamore Beach and from Westport Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts)

This area could see sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 60-70 MPH and possibly slightly higher gusts. The Hurricane Watch has been issued to guard against a more westward solution towards Buzzards Bay. If that were to verify, hurricane force conditions sustained or in gusts may occur but the current solution would keep most of that to the east of this region. Rainfall in this area is likely to be 3-6″ with isolated higher amounts along the coast and inland Southern Bristol and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts. Storm surge over the south coast isn’t expected to be a major factor due to the wind direction but a 1-2 foot surge could occur over the Plymouth area depending on the track of Earl.

Tropical Storm Watch Area (Mouth of Merrimack River Massachusetts to Plymouth Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island including the Tropical Storm Inland Wind Watch for Northern Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties):

In this area, sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 40-50 MPH are possible depending on the track of Earl with the exception of inland Bristol and Plymouth Counties which could see sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH. Across the remainder of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts inland of the TS Watch winds will drop off a bit with rainfall of 2-4″ with isolated higher amounts possible but if a further west track were to materialize more wind could occur in portions of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts. It is noted that portions of Worcester County and Northeast Connecticut could see 1-3″ of rainfall.

There remains 3 factors that will further determine the track of Major Hurricane Earl that are still being scrutinized by the weather models are as follows:

1.) The strength and location of the Great Lakes trough and its interaction with Hurricane Earl
The strength and location of the Great Lakes trough and its interaction with Hurricane Earl will be critical. If the trough’s location is further west or not amplifying and interacting with Hurricane Earl, this would allow a closer to the coast track and more direct impact. If it amplifies and can interact with Earl, it would result in a greater push to the east.

2.) The sharpness and locations of the turns Earl will make
Depending on the sharpness and locations of Earl turns will determine the interaction with the Great Lakes trough and his eventual movement. This will be especially true as Earl approaches the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Thursday and this will be a critical time in the track and impact of Hurricane Earl on Southern New England.

3.) Intensity of Hurricane Earl as it moves up the coast
The intensity of Hurricane Earl will now be controlled by eyewall replacement cycles and other shorter-term phenomenon that cannot be fully predicted. Earl has gone through a significant intensification process and has grown in size. Unlike past hurricanes that have been much weaker as they approached New England, water temperatures are above normal and Earl is a very powerful and large hurricane. This is likely to result in greater impact from Earl then most tropical systems approaching New England because of its large size and intensity. In addition, the intensity of Earl may affect the movement of the system.

Swells and rip currents will become a very serious concern as Earl tracks closer to the region on Thursday extending through the Labor Day Holiday Weekend after Earl passes. There have been many times where offshore tropical systems have caused injuries or fatalities on the water from the surf and rip currents so folks swimming at area beaches over the next several days with the hot weather expected are advise to heed the advice of lifeguards and monitor NWS Taunton products for high surf advisory information. See link below for the the surf zone forecasts for more information and if High Surf Advisories are posted, that link will be posted and updated here:

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus51.KBOX.html

All Emergency Management and Public Safety personnel, Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of major Hurricane Earl. People should now be reviewing their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions as a precaution in inland areas and as a requirement along the coast in the Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watch areas. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips and an updated Public Information Statement of Safety Tips as well as a Tropical Terminology Public Information Statement listed via the links below:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1009011537.nous41.html

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net along with WX4NHC, Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will activate at 4 PM Thursday Afternoon for Earl’s closest path to the Outer Banks and Eastern North Carolina, Eastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula. These nets will likely activate again Friday for Earl’s closest path to New England. It is noted that the VoIP Hurricane Net will merge into one large command net with New England Echolink/IRLP operations as it approaches New England. Please see these web sites for information on the Hurricane Nets and the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC:

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

Voip Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

WX4NHC Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

From a spotting perspective, we will be looking for any and all reports per the SKYWARN reporting criteria. We’ll also be looking for lowest barometric pressure readings across Southeast New England. Also, pictures of damage and incidents as they occur in near real-time or shortly after release will be very helpful to media, emergency manamgement, the National Hurricane Center and the NWS Taunton Forecast Office. A reminder on SKYWARN Net frequencies for the region via the link below:

http://www.wx1box.org/node/37

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Friday Morning into Saturday Morning based on the current track and intensity of Hurricane Earl. Massachusetts State EOC RACES and MEMA RACES Regional Office activation is slated to occur Friday Morning. Eastern Massachusetts ARES will be placed on stand-by starting at 7 AM ET Friday Morning lasting through 7 PM Saturday Evening.

The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Area Forecast Discussion and National Hurricane Center Advisory information on Earl are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Earl Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt32.KNHC.html

Hurricane Earl Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt42.KNHC.html

Hurricane Earl Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt22.KNHC.html

Hurricane Earl Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font12.KNHC.html

The next coordination message will likely be posted Thursday Evening pending further computer model data on the track of Earl and significant updates to Earl’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator         
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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