Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday July 29th, 2011 Severe Weather Threat

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely today with the greatest risk across Western and Central Massachusetts and Much of Connecticut where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained a Slight Risk of Severe Weather with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. A more isolated risk for a strong to severe thunderstorm exists for areas of Southern New England outside the slight risk area..
..Amount of sunshine for heating and destablization and the timing of a line of thunderstorms in Western New York through the Great Lakes states will determine the extent of the severe weather threat today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely today anytime after Noon or 1 PM today..

At 715 AM, Satellite imagery showed clouds over the region with some breaks in New York State with stronger clearing over Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Doppler Radar showed a line of thunderstorms from just west of the Finger Lakes in New York through Lake Erie, Southeast Michigan and Northeast Ohio. The extent of clearing to allow for destablization and the timing of this line of storm activity will ultimately determine the severe weather threat over the region.

SPC has maintained the Slight Risk area for much of Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut for today. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out outside of the slight risk area in the NWS Taunton County Warning Area. Given the current line configuration in Western New York and the Great Lakes states, the primary risks is for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding. Any threat for supercells appears lower than last night but will need to be watched carefully if more heating develops and individual cells form versus the line configuration that is currently being seen on radar.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible likely this afternoon and evening anytime after Noon or 1 PM today. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s severe weather threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator         
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely today with the greatest risk across Western and Central Massachusetts and Much of Connecticut where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained a Slight Risk of Severe Weather with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. A more isolated risk for a strong to severe thunderstorm exists for areas of Southern New England outside the slight risk area..
..Amount of sunshine for heating and destablization and the timing of a line of thunderstorms in Western New York through the Great Lakes states will determine the extent of the severe weather threat today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely today anytime after Noon or 1 PM today..

At 715 AM, Satellite imagery showed clouds over the region with some breaks in New York State with stronger clearing over Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Doppler Radar showed a line of thunderstorms from just west of the Finger Lakes in New York through Lake Erie, Southeast Michigan and Northeast Ohio. The extent of clearing to allow for destablization and the timing of this line of storm activity will ultimately determine the severe weather threat over the region.

SPC has maintained the Slight Risk area for much of Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut for today. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out outside of the slight risk area in the NWS Taunton County Warning Area. Given the current line configuration in Western New York and the Great Lakes states, the primary risks is for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding. Any threat for supercells appears lower than last night but will need to be watched carefully if more heating develops and individual cells form versus the line configuration that is currently being seen on radar.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible likely this afternoon and evening anytime after Noon or 1 PM today. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s severe weather threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator         
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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