Post-Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #1

Hello to all..

..New England Slowly Recovers from the impact of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene as it causes widespread tree and wire damage, structural damage to buildings due to fallen trees and isolated structural damage to homes and businesses. Flooding and flash flooding were also significant issues in western and northern parts of New England. Several hundred thousand remain without power across New England from the impacts of Irene..
..Pictures and Video of damage and flooding can still be very useful in the damage assessment efforts being completed by local, state and federal emergency management and can help the warning process for the National Weather Service. Please send by either a reply to this note or via pics at nsradio.org email address. Credit will be given to the person who took the pictures and/or video as its shared with various agencies and the media..
..Another post-Hurricane Irene Coordination Message will be posted Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement highlighting the damage, flooding, wind measurement and rain totals form Irene’s impact on the region..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Hurricane Irene Statement – WX1BOX on Social Media – Special Reporting and Safety Tips from Amateur Radio Coordinators at the National Hurricane Center

Hello to all..

The following is a Hurricane Irene Statement on WX1BOX on social media and special reporting guidelines and safety tips from the Amateur Radio Coordinators at the National Hurricane Center. Special thanks to Amateur Radio Assistant Coordinator at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R for providing this information.

First of all, WX1BOX is on both Twitter and Facebook. Look for us by doing a facebook or Twitter search for WX1BOX. This is a means to get storm updates and to share storm reports and pictures with us. Our facebook page can be seen via the following link:

http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Wx1box-National-Weather-Service-Taunton-Amateur-Radio-Skywarn-Group/216287391738620

Please adhere to the following safety tips provided by Julio Ripoll-WD4R:

Please emphasize that all operators should make necessary preparations to secure their homes and families first and take precautions for themselves seriously. Do not take any risks in trying to collect weather data. Even a CAT-1 is a dangerous Hurricane. Wind driven debris can cause serious injuries. Fallen electrical lines may not be visible and can cause electrocution even underwater. Storm Surge and Flash Floods are the major cause of death in hurricanes.

In terms of reporting criteria on Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets, the standard SKYWARN reporting criteria is sufficient. Report damage to trees and wires, structural damage, measured wind gusts 40 MPH or greater. Report any river, stream flooding. Urban flooding should be reported when 6″ or more of water are covering at least one travel lane or the entire roadway. In terms of wind measurements, the wind direction and sustained wind along with the peak gust is very useful provided the wind gust is 40 MPH or greater. Noting the lowest barometric pressure reading is also helpful and any measured rainfall 2″ or more and every 1″ thereafter and any rainfall of 1″ or more per hour (not rainfall rate but an actual accumulation of 1″ or more within an hour period).

Please send any pictures or video to this address either as an attachment or links to the pictures and video or you can also send the pictures to the email address pics at nsradio.org. These pictures will be sent to media, local, state and federal emergency management, the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center with credit given to the people that are sending the pictures and video.

On Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets, please help with the following:

1.) Refrain from general reports of ‘its raining hard’ or ‘very windy’ here.
2.) Refrain from flooding reports that are under 6″ of water and not in the travel lane of the roadway.
3.) Reporting wind gusts or sustained winds that are not of at least 40 MPH.
4.) If you’ve had a wind gust of criteria of 40 MPH or higher or a sustained wind of 40 MPH, please make the next report when you’ve had another higher gust or sustained wind of higher magnitude and give the wind direction.

We appreciate everyone’s support and look forward to working with everyone during Hurricane Irene. Thanks to all for everyone’s support, stay safe and hopefully the damage from this Hurricane will not be as bad as its potential.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #7

Hello to all..

..Large Hurricane Irene Poised to Strike Southern New England. Hurricane and Tropical Strom Warnings are now in effect across much of New England. Preparations to protect life and property should now be completed..
..A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Sagamore Beach Massachusetts through Cape Lookout North Carolina including all the islands of New York and Southern New England. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol, Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI.
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Sagamore Beach Massachusetts to the Merrimack River Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the remainder of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and has been expanded into Southern New Hampshire..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night..
..Isolated tornadoes will be possible in Southern New England along and east of the Irene’s track..
..Multiple Models are in agreement on a potential impact to Southern New England in the late Saturday to early Monday timeframe. The extent on specifics of impact are being better detailed now given the current track guidance have had strong run-to-run consistency. Heavy Rain, Damaging Tropical Storm to Hurricane Force Winds, and Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England remain potential threats. The impact is likely to be similar to Hurricane Gloria in 1985..
..The models are largely in great agreement on a track just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast into Western to Central Long Island and Western to Central Connecticut. This could pose a widespread wind damage threat to areas along and east of Irene’s track with heaviest rainfall along and to the west of the track..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets and WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center are now active gathering reports from North Carolina, Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic Region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 4 AM Sunday lasting through early Monday for impact of Large Hurricane Irene. The timeframe has been moved to 4 AM at the request of the National Weather Service in Taunton..
..ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of large Hurricane Irene and seek advise from local leadership on stand-by and deployment status for their area..
..A Special Reporting Criteria and Safety Message to encompass some of the items that WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, will be looking for will be sent after this coordination message..
..The first 5 paragraphs of this coordination message contain the most critical updates..

As of the 9 PM Saturday National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center Advisory package, Hurricane Warnings are in effect to include the area from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts to Watch Hill Rhode Island all the way down to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol, Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI. In the Hurricane Warning area, sustained high end tropical storm force winds of 50-60 MPH with hurricane force winds sustained or in gusts are likely to occur over the region. Hurricane force wind gusts of up to 80 MPH with isolated higher gusts will be possible. 2-4 inches of rain will be expected in this area with isolated higher amounts. Storm Surge flooding will occur across the south facing coastal locations with a 3-6 foot surge over portions of Cape Cod potentially reaching 4-7 feet in Narragansett and Buzzards Bays.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Sagamore Beach to Merrimack River Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the remainder of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and has been expanded into Southern New Hampshire. In this area, sustained winds to tropical storm force with gusts to high end tropical storm force are expected in the area. Isolated hurricane force wind gusts will be possible. Sustained tropical storm force winds of 40-60 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH are likely with possible higher gusts to 75-80 MPH. There is likely to be 5 to 10 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts in this region particularly in Western and Central Massachusetts and into Southern New Hampshire.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night. Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated higher amounts is expected to cause widespread minor to moderate flooding of rivers and streams along with potentially significant urban and poor drainage flooding. The exact heavy axis of rain is likely to be over Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut but could also make it into Central and Northeast areas depending on Irene’s exact track. To the west of the track, 1-4″ of rain with isolated higher amounts are possible.

The track guidance is in good agreement on a track just offshore of the mid-atlantic coast into the New York City area to possibly Western and Central Long Island New York and then into Western and Central Connecticut. This will put portions of Central and much of Eastern Masaschusetts, Rhode Island, and Eastern Connecticut on the damaging wind side of the hurricane. Potentially widespread damaging winds to trees and power lines are likely with pockets of wind damage on the west side of the storm track with very heavy rainfall. Isolated Tornadoes are possible along and to the east of Irene’s track. The impact is expected to be similar to Hurricane Glorida in 1985.

Also, it is noted that there will be very high wind speeds at 1000 feet and higher. Higher elevation locations across the region along with coastal areas will be the most prone locations to significant wind damage to trees and wires. In addition, high rise buildings could also experience higher winds than those at ground level. Higher hill locations may also have potential for higher winds and wind damage.

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets along with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will be active all weekend. See their respective net links and the link to WX4NHC for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

High Surf conditions are affecting the New England coast. Swells and Rip Currents can be very dangerous to both the experienced and inexperienced swimmer. A rip current risk statement was reissued Friday Morning by NWS Taunton. See links below:

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory/Rip Current Risk Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on&issuedby=BOX&product=SRF

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. People should continue reviewing and acting on their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions and have these plans completed by Saturday Evening. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below and via a hurricane preparedness guide with a link to that listed below as well:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/announcement/hurricanePreparedness.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 4 AM ET lasting through Monday for impact of Large Hurricane Irene. ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should continue to closely monitor the progress of Large Hurricane Irene and seek advice from local leadership on stand-by and deployment status for their area which should soon move into to activation status.

Once again, Hurricane Irene should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England and preparations to protect life and propery should have already been completed. The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement, Flood Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory/track information on Large Hurricane Irene from the National Hurricane Center are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Irene Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Track Map provided by the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025514.shtml?5-daynl#contents

This will likely be the last Hurricane Irene Coordination Mesage as we move into Operations mode.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator        
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #6

Hello to all..

..Large Hurricane Irene Poised to Strike Southern New England. Hurricane and Tropical Strom Warnings are now in effect and expanded to include Southern New Hampshire. Preparations to protect life and property should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening..
..A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Sagamore Beach Massachusetts through Little River Inlet North Carolina including all the islands of New York and Southern New England. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol, Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI.
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Sagamore Beach Massachusetts to the Merrimack River Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the remainder of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and has been expanded into Southern New Hampshire..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night..
..Isolated tornadoes will be possible in Central and Eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and portions of Connecticut along and east of the Irene’s track..
..Multiple Models are in agreement on a potential impact to Southern New England in the late Saturday to early Monday timeframe. The extent on specifics of impact are being better detailed now given the current track guidance have had strong run-to-run consistency. Heavy Rain, Damaging Tropical Storm to Hurricane Force Winds, and Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England remain potential threats. The impact is likely to be similar to Hurricane Gloria in 1985..
..The models are largely in great agreement on a track just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast into Western to Central Long Island and Western to Central Connecticut. This could pose a widespread wind damage threat to areas along and east of Irene’s track with heaviest rainfall along and to the west of the track..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets and WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center are now active gathering reports from North Carolina, Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic Region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 6 AM Sunday lasting through early Monday for impact of Large Hurricane Irene. There is the possibility that Ops at NWS Taunton could be started a little prior to 6 AM based on Irene’s movement..
..ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of large Hurricane Irene and seek advise from local leadership on stand-by status for their area..
..A Special Reporting Criteria and Safety Message to encompass some of the items that WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, will be looking for will be sent Saturday Afternoon..
..The first 4 paragraphs of this coordination message contain the most critical updates..

As of the 11 AM Saturday National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center Advisory package, Hurricane Warnings are in effect to include the area from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts to Watch Hill Rhode Island all the way down to Little River Inlet North Carolina. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol, Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI. In the Hurricane Warning area, hurricane force winds sustained or in gusts are likely to occur over the region. 2-4 inches of rain will be expected in this area with isolated higher amounts. Storm Surge flooding will occur across the south facing coastal locations with a 3-6 foot surge over portions of Cape Cod potentially reaching 4-8 feet in Narragansett and Buzzards Bays.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Sagamore Beach to Merrimack River Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the remainder of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and has been expanded into Southern New Hampshire. In this area, sustained winds to tropical storm force with gusts to high end tropical storm force are expected in the area. There is likely to be 5 to 10 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts in this region.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night. Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated higher amounts is expected to cause widespread minor to moderate flooding of rivers and streams along with potentially significant urban and poor drainage flooding. The exact heavy axis of rain is likely to be over Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut but could also make it into Central and Northeast areas depending on Irene’s exact track.

The track guidance is in good agreement on a track just offshore of the mid-atlantic coast into Western and Central Long Island New York and then into Western and Central Connecticut. This will put portions of Central and much of Eastern Masaschusetts, Rhode Island, and Eastern Connecticut on the damaging wind side of the hurricane. Potentially widespread damaging winds to trees and power lines are likely with pockets of wind damage on the west side of the storm track with very heavy rainfall. Isolated Tornadoes are possible along and to the east of Irene’s track. The impact is expected to be similar to Hurricane Glorida in 1985.

Also, it is noted that there will be very high wind speeds at 1000 feet and higher. Higher elevation locations across the region along with coastal areas will be the most prone locations to significant wind damage to trees and wires.

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets along with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will be active all weekend. See their respective net links and the link to WX4NHC for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

High Surf conditions are affecting the New England coast. Swells and Rip Currents can be very dangerous to both the experienced and inexperienced swimmer. A rip current risk statement was reissued Friday Morning by NWS Taunton. See links below:

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory/Rip Current Risk Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on&issuedby=BOX&product=SRF

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. People should continue reviewing and acting on their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions and have these plans completed by Saturday Evening. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below and via a hurricane preparedness guide with a link to that listed below as well:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/announcement/hurricanePreparedness.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting at 6 AM ET lasting through Monday for impact of Large Hurricane Irene. It is possible Ops at NWS Taunton could be pushed back to 4 or 5 AM depending on her speed of motion toward the region or heavy rainfall Saturday Night over the region. ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of Large Hurricane Irene and seek advice from local leadership on stand-by status for their area which should soon move into to activation status.

Once again, Hurricane Irene should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England and preparations to protect life and propery should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening. The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement, Flood Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory/track information on Large Hurricane Irene from the National Hurricane Center are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Irene Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Track Map provided by the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025514.shtml?5-daynl#contents

The next coordination message will likely be posted by 9 PM Saturday pending further computer model data on the track of Irene and significant updates to Irene’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective as well as the status on Watches and Warnings for the region. That will likely be the last Hurricane Irene Coordination Mesage as we move into Operations mode.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #5

Hello to all..

..Large Hurricane Irene Poised to Strike Southern New England. Track adjusted slightly eastward. Hurricane and Tropical Strom Warnings are now issued. Preparations to protect life and property should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening..
..A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Sagamore Beach Massachusetts through Little River Inlet North Carolina including all the islands of New York and Southern New England. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol, Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI.
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Sagamore Beach Massachusetts to the Merrimack River Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the remainder of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties of Southern New Hampshire..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night..
..Isolated tornadoes will be possible in Central and Eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and portions of Connecticut along and east of the Irene’s track..
..Multiple Models are in agreement on a potential impact to Southern New England in the late Saturday to early Monday timeframe. The extent on specifics of impact have been outlined a bit more with further details to follow by the midday Saturday Irene Coordination Message. Heavy Rain, Damaging Tropical Storm to Hurricane Force Winds, and Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England remain potential threats. The new watch and warning issuances mean increased confidence in this scenario with further details likely provided this evening.
..The threat from Irene is far different from the threat Hurricane Earl posed in 2010. This is explained in detail in this coordination message..
..The models are largely in great agreement on a track just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast into Central Long Island and Central Connecticut. This could pose a widespread wind damage threat to areas along and east of Irene’s track..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets and WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will be active through the weekend for Hurricane Irene’s impacts..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through Monday for impact of Large Hurricane Irene..
..ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of large Hurricane Irene and seek advise from local leadership on stand-by status for their area..
..A Special Reporting Criteria and Safety Message to encompass some of the items that WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, will be looking for will be sent Saturday Morning..
..The first 4 pargraphs of this coordination message contain the most critical updates..

As of the 8 PM National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center Advisory package, Hurricane Warnings have been expanded to include the area from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts to Watch Hill Rhode Island all the way down to Little River Inlet North Carolina. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol, Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI. In the Hurricane Warning area, hurricane force winds sustained or in gusts are likely to occur over the region. Several inches of rain will be expected in this area. Storm Surge flooding will occur across the south facing coastal locations.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Sagamore Beach to Merrimack River Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the remainder of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. In this area, sustained winds to tropical storm force with gusts to high end tropical storm force are expected in the area. There is likely to be 5 to 10 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts in this region. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire. Tropical Storm force conditions and heavy rainfall are possible in the watch area and this may be upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in later forecasts.

Further details to the expected conditions will be made in the Saturday Irene Coordination Message to be posted Noon ET. Additional modifications to these watches to warnings will likely occur Saturday Morning. For New England hurricanes, Heaviest rain are along and to the west of the track with potential for pockets of damaging winds. On the east side of the track, rainfall will be less but a much greater threat for widespread damaging winds.

The track guidance is in good agreement on a track just offshore of the mid-atlantic coast into Central Long Island New York and then into Central Connecticut. This will put portions of Central and much of Eastern Masaschusetts, Rhode Island, and Eastern Connecticut on the damaging wind side of the hurricane. Potentially widespread damaging winds to trees and power lines are likely with pockets of wind damage on the west side of the storm track with very heavy rainfall. Isolated Tornadoes are possible along and to the east of Irene’s track.

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets along with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will be active all weekend. See their respective net links and the link to WX4NHC for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

High Surf conditions are affecting the New England coast. Swells and Rip Currents can be very dangerous to both the experienced and inexperienced swimmer. A rip current risk statement was reissued Friday Morning by NWS Taunton. See links below:

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory/Rip Current Risk Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on&issuedby=BOX&product=SRF

There have been a number of questions from Non-Governmental Organizations and Emergency Management regarding the track of Irene and the track with Earl. There are some significant differences here and they are as follows:

1.) The overall model guidance track of Irene is west of the overall model guidance with Earl.
Last year, Hurricane Earl’s midpoint guidance was about 50-100 miles offshore of Nantucket with some wobbles as far west as the mid to Outer Cape and between Nantucket and Marthas Vinyeard. With Hurricane Irene, the west most guidance is the New York City area and Western Long Island New York with the eastern most guidance just east of the Outer Cape and Nantucket. The midpoint of the guidance is somewhere over Southern New England for Hurricane Irene. Models have been persistent with this track and that’s why this is different from Earl. There can still be 100 nautical mile track error and that will impact specific conditions but Irene’s impact will be larger than Earl’s was last year. As we get closer, the details will be better known.

2.) Irene is expected to be a stronger system than Earl
With Earl in 2010, he weakened fairly quickly from a strong Category 3 to a Category 1/Tropical Storm. With Irene, she is expected to be a much stronger system as she comes through the region. This will also impact conditions over the region along with the closer track.

3.) The trough at the mid-levels of the atmosphere will amplify much more than the interaction between the trough axis and Earl in 2010. This is another factor in why Irene’s track will be closer to the coast than Earl’s was in 2010 resulting in more significant impact by Irene this year than Earl in 2010.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. People should continue reviewing and acting on their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions and have these plans completed by Saturday Evening. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below and via a hurricane preparedness guide with a link to that listed below as well:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/announcement/hurricanePreparedness.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through Monday for impact of Major Hurricane Irene. ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of Large Hurricane Irene and seek advice from local leadership on stand-by status for their area which should soon move into to activation status.

Once again, Hurricane Irene should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England and preparations to protect life and propery should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening. The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement, Flood Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory/track information on Large Hurricane Irene from the National Hurricane Center are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Irene Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Track Map provided by the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025514.shtml?5-daynl#contents

The next coordination message will likely be posted by noon Saturday pending further computer model data on the track of Irene and significant updates to Irene’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective as well as the status on Watches and Warnings for the region.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator      
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #4

Hello to all..

..Large Hurricane Irene Poised to Strike Southern New England. Track adjusted slightly eastward. Hurricane and Tropical Strom Watches issued. Preparations to protect life and property should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening..
..A Hurricane Watch is in effect from the Merrimack River Massachusetts through Watch Hill Rhode Island and includes all islands. Inland, the Hurricane Watch is in effect for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts as well as all of Rhode Island except for Western Kent and Northwest Providence Counties of Rhode Island..
..A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, the remainder of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night..
..Multiple Models are in agreement on a potential impact to Southern New England in the late Saturday to early Monday timeframe. The extent on specifics of impact are too early to state at this time but Heavy Rain, Damaging Tropical Storm to Hurricane Force Winds, and Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England remain potential threats. The watch issuances mean increased confidence in this scenario with further details likely provided this evening.
..The threat from Irene is far different from the threat Hurricane Earl posed in 2010. This is explained in detail in this coordination message..
..The westward shift in the models was replaced by a slight eastward shift in some of the models. One should not pay attention to these shifts especially where much of the region will be on the damaging wind/severe weather side of this large hurricane and further modifications in track can occur. This is explained in detail in this coordination message. The official NHC track has been shifted slightly eastward..
..The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advises that Interests elsewhere in New England closely monitor the progress of Large Hurricane Irene..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets have stood down and will reactivate with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center Saturday Morning lasting through the weekend..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through Monday for impact of Large Hurricane Irene..
..ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of large Hurricane Irene and seek advise from local leadership on stand-by status for their area..

As of the 5 AM National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center Advisory package, Hurricane Watches have been expanded to include the entire Southern New England coast from the mouth of the Merrimack River through north of Sandy Hook New Jersey including all islands. The Hurricane Watch extends inland to include Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts as well as all of Rhode Island except for Western Kent and Northwest Providence Counties of Rhode Island. In the Hurricane Watch area, the potential exists for damaging winds with the potential for sustained and/or wind gusts to hurricane force.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, the remainder of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island. In this area, sustained winds and gusts to tropical storm force causing wind damage are possible. A Flood Watch is now posted for Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night for all of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the islands.

It is difficult to get into more specific impacts but Heavy, floding Rains, Strong Winds to Tropical Storm and hurricane force, and Coastal Flooding to South Coastal New England are all potential threats. The watches depict the latest thinking in terms of the potential for tropical storm force and hurricane force winds at this time. Modifications to these watches to warnings will likely occur this evening or Saturday Morning. For New England hurricanes, Heaviest rain are along and to the west of the track with potential for pockets of damaging winds. On the east side of the track, rainfall will be less but a much greater threat for widespread damaging winds. In the latest NHC advisories, remaining interests in New England should monitor the progress of Large Hurricane Irene.

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net have been active over the past couple days for Irene’s impact the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas and have deactivated, along with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center. See their respective net links and the link to WX4NHC for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

High Surf conditions will begin to affect the New England coast in a few days. Swells and Rip Currents can be very dangerous to both the experienced and inexperienced swimmer. A rip current risk statement was reissued Friday Morning by NWS Taunton. See links below:

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory/Rip Current Risk Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on&issuedby=BOX&product=SRF

There have been a number of questions from Non-Governmental Organizations and Emergency Management regarding the track of Irene and the track with Earl. There are some significant differences here and they are as follows:

1.) The overall model guidance track of Irene is west of the overall model guidance with Earl.
Last year, Hurricane Earl’s midpoint guidance was about 50-100 miles offshore of Nantucket with some wobbles as far west as the mid to Outer Cape and between Nantucket and Marthas Vinyeard. With Hurricane Irene, the west most guidance is the New York City area and Western Long Island New York with the eastern most guidance just east of the Outer Cape and Nantucket. The midpoint of the guidance is somewhere over Southern New England for Hurricane Irene. Models have been persistent with this track and that’s why this is different from Earl. There can still be 100 nautical mile track error and that will impact specific conditions but Irene’s impact will be larger than Earl’s was last year. As we get closer, the details will be better known.

2.) Irene is expected to be a stronger system than Earl
With Earl in 2010, he weakened fairly quickly from a strong Category 3 to a Category 1/Tropical Storm. With Irene, she is expected to be a much stronger system as she comes through the region. This will also impact conditions over the region along with the closer track.

3.) The trough at the mid-levels of the atmosphere will amplify much more than the interaction between the trough axis and Earl in 2010. This is another factor in why Irene’s track will be closer to the coast than Earl’s was in 2010 resulting in more significant impact by Irene this year than Earl in 2010.

There have been some questions on the further westward track in the computer models seen previously. These wobbles and changes are expected for another few model cycles. After trending west late Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning, some models have started the trend eastward once again and the official NHC track guidance has been moved east. Irene is a large hurricane and there will be various significant impacts across the US East Coast from the Carolinas northward to New England. In the next 12 to 24 hours, further specifics and better run-to-run consistency on the track should take hold. Being on the eastern end of Irene means a greater risk for damaging winds, severe weather and coastal storm surge flooding in South Coastal Massachusetts. Only if Irene tracks farther inland would this reduce some of the threats of Irene below hurricane strength due to land interaction but with some of the eastward shift in some of the reliable model guidance, that still isn’t the most likely scenario and people should still prepare as if a hurricane could impact the region particularly with Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches now in effect for the region.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. People should continue reviewing and acting on their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions and have these plans completed by Saturday Evening. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below and via a hurricane preparedness guide with a link to that listed below as well:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/announcement/hurricanePreparedness.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through Monday for impact of Major Hurricane Irene. ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of Large Hurricane Irene and seek advice from local leadership on stand-by status for their area.

Once again, Hurricane Irene should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England and preparations to protect life and propery should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening. The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement, Flood Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory/track information on Large Hurricane Irene from the National Hurricane Center are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Irene Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Track Map provided by the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025514.shtml?5-daynl#contents

The next coordination message will likely be posted Friday Evening pending further computer model data on the track of Irene and significant updates to Irene’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective as well as the status on Watches and Warnings for the region.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Read more

Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #3

Hello to all..

..Dangerous Major Hurricane Irene is making its way toward the US East Coast and may intensify slightly as it approaches. Its current expected track will then be to impact the Carolina Coast tracking to a position over or just inside the Outer Banks of North Carolina with potential impact to New England in the late Saturday to Sunday timeframe..
..Multiple Models are in agreement on a potential impact to Southern New England in the late Saturday to early Monday timeframe. All of Southern New England is in the ‘cone of uncertainity track error’ for the extended period. The extent on specifics of impact are too early to state at this time but Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds, and Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England remain potential threats..
..The threat from Irene is far different from the threat Hurricane Earl posed in 2010. This is explained in detail in this coordination message..
..The westward shift in the models late last night through this morning has now been followed in an eastward shift in some of the models. One should not pay attention to these shifts especially where much of the region will be on the damaging wind/severe weather side of this large hurricane and further modifications in track can occur. This is explained in detail in this coordination message..
..The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advises that Interests along the US East Coast from the Mid-Atlantic northward to New England closely monitor the progress of Dangerous Major Hurricane Irene..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets have stood down and will reactivate with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center Saturday Morning lasting through the weekend..
..Interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Major Hurricane Irene. Further monitoring and preparations should be made to prepare for the potential of impact from Major Hurricane Irene..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through Monday for impact of Major Hurricane Irene..
..ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of Major Hurricane Irene and seek advise from local leadership on stand-by status for their area..

Dangerous Major Hurricane Irene has moved away from the Bahamas after causing significant damage on portions of the island chain. Irene is gradually turning northward, taking aim on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, followed by a track parallel to the coast towards New York City, Long Island and New England. The current NHC track brings the system up to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, along the coast of New Jersey, Western long Island and then on a track towards Southern New England as a hurricane. Models are in decent agreement, however, we are still about 3 days out and the details and exact track could change. There are track errors of up to 150-175 miles over this period that could still occur. The track error ‘cone of uncertainty’ is over all of Southern New England with the latest forecast package. It is difficult to get into any specific impacts but Heavy Rains, Gusty Winds, and Coastal Flooding to South Coastal New England are all potential threats. For New England hurricanes, Heaviest rain are along and to the west of the track with potential for pockets of damaging winds. On the east side of the track, rainfall will be less but a much greater threat for widespread damaging winds. In the latest NHC advisories, interests along the US East Coast from the Mid-Atlantic northward to New England should monitor the progress of Major Hurricane Irene.

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net have been active over the past couple days for Irene’s impact the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas and have deactivated, along with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center. See their respective net links and the link to WX4NHC for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

High Surf conditions will begin to affect the New England coast in a few days. Swells and Rip Currents can be very dangerous to both the experienced and inexperienced swimmer. A rip current risk statement was issued Thursday Evening by NWS Taunton. See links below:

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory/Rip Current Risk Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on&issuedby=BOX&product=SRF

There have been a number of questions from Non-Governmental Organizations and Emergency Management regarding the track of Irene and the track with Earl. There are some significant differences here and they are as follows:

1.) The overall model guidance track of Irene is west of the overall model guidance with Earl.
Last year, Hurricane Earl’s midpoint guidance was about 50-100 miles offshore of Nantucket with some wobbles as far west as the mid to Outer Cape and between Nantucket and Marthas Vinyeard. With Major Hurricane Irene, the west most guidance is the New York City area and Western Long Island New York with the eastern most guidance just east of the Outer Cape and Nantucket. The midpoint of the guidance is somewhere over Southern New England for Major Hurricane Irene. Models have been persistent with this track and that’s why this is different from Earl. There can still be 200 nautical mile track error and that will impact specific conditions but Irene’s impact will be larger than Earl’s was last year. As we get closer, the details will be better known.

2.) Irene is expected to be a stronger system than Earl
With Earl in 2010, he weakened fairly quickly from a strong Category 3 to a Category 1/Tropical Storm. With Irene, she is expected to be a much stronger system as she comes through the region. This will also impact conditions over the region along with the closer track.

3.) The trough at the mid-levels of the atmosphere will amplify much more than the interaction between the trough axis and Earl in 2010. This is another factor in why Irene’s track will be closer to the coast than Earl’s was in 2010 resulting in more significant impact by Irene this year than Earl in 2010.

There have been some questions on the further westward track in the computer models. These wobbles and changes are expected for another few model cycles. After trending west late Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning, some models have started the trend eastward once again. Irene is a large hurricane and there will be various significant impacts across the US East Coast from the Carolinas northward to New England. In the next 24 hours, further specifics and better run-to-run consistency on the track should take hold. Being on the eastern end of Irene means a greater risk for damaging winds, severe weather and coastal storm surge flooding in South Coastal Massachusetts. Only if Irene tracks farther inland would this reduce some of the threats of Irene below hurricane strength due to land interaction but with some of the eastward shift in some of the reliable model guidance, that still isn’t the most likely scenario and people should still prepare as if a hurricane could impact the region unless model guidance converges further west.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. People should continue reviewing and start acting on their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions as a precaution. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below and via a hurricane preparedness guide with a link to that listed below as well:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/announcement/hurricanePreparedness.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through Monday for impact of Major Hurricane Irene. ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of Major Hurricane Irene and seek advice from local leadership on stand-by status for their area.

Once again, Hurricane Irene should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. The latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory/track information on Major Hurricane Irene from the National Hurricane Center are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Irene Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Track Map provided by the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025514.shtml?5-daynl#contents

The next coordination message will likely be posted either Friday Morning or Friday Evening pending further computer model data on the track of Irene and significant updates to Irene’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective as well as the status on Watches and Warnings for the region.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator    
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday August 25th, 2011 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms becoming more likely this Thursday afternoon and evening with the greatest threat over interior Southern New England. Damaging Winds, Large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding and perhaps even isolated supercells are the primay threats..
..Satellite imagery shows cloud cover over portions of Western and Central New England but weather models are indicating drying that will take place and breaks will occur. Doppler Radar is showing an area of rain over South-Central New York and Eastern Pennsylvania moving rapidly east-northeast at 800 AM and may affect the region in the morning if it holds together before potential clearing in the afternoon. If the clearing occurs as expected, wind shear will be more than sufficient for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s severe weather threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Read more

Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #2

Hello to all..

..Dangerous Major Hurricane Irene is expected to continue to intensify and potentially become a Category 4 hurricane and lash the Bahamas through Thursday. Its current expected track will then be to impact the Carolina Coast tracking to a position over the Outer Banks of North Carolina with potential impact to New England in the late Saturday to Sunday timeframe..
..Multiple Models are in agreement on a potential impact to Southern New England in the late Saturday to Sunday timeframe All of Southern New England is in the ‘cone of uncertainity track error’ for the extended period. The extent on specifics of impact are too early to state at this time but Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds, and Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England remain potential threats..
..The threat from Irene is far different from the threat Hurricane Earl posed in 2010. This is explained in detail in this coordination message..
..The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advises that Interests along the US East Coast from the Carolinas northward to New England closely monitor the progress of Dangerous Major Hurricane Irene..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net remain active monitoring conditions in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. They will likely be active Thursday for the Bahamas and again Friday for the Carolinas..
..Interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Major Hurricane Irene. Further monitoring and low-level preparations should be made to prepare for the potential of impact from Major Hurricane Irene..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time Saturday Afternoon lasting through Monday for impact of Major Hurricane Irene..
..ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of Major Hurricane Irene and seek advise from local leadership on stand-by status for their area..

Dangerous Major Hurricane Irene has slammed the Bahamas with tropical storm to hurricane force conditions throughout much of the day and could intensify to Category 4 strength. Irene will pull away from the Bahamas and then take aim on the US East Coast from the Carolinas northward to New England. The current NHC track brings the system up to the Outer Banks of North Carolina and then on a track towards Southern New England as a hurricane. Models are in very good agreement, however, we are still about 4 days out and the details and exact track could change. There are track errors of up to 200 miles over this period that could still occur. The track error ‘cone of uncertainty’ is over all of Southern New England with the latest forecast package. It is difficult to get into any specific impacts but Heavy Rains, Gusty Winds, and Coastal Flooding to South Coastal New England are all potential threats. For New England hurricanes, Heaviest rain are along and to the west of the track with potential for pockets of damaging winds. On the east side of the track, rainfall will be less but a much greater threat for widespread damaging winds. In the latest NHC advisories, interests along the US East Coast from the Carolinas northward to New England should monitor the progress of Major Hurricane Irene.

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net have been active over the past couple days for Irene’s impact the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas. See their respective net links for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

High Surf conditions will begin to affect the New England coast in a few days. Swells and Rip Currents can be very dangerous to both the experienced and inexperienced swimmer. High Surf Advisory Statements will likely be issued later this week and also the surf zone forecasts will provide more information. See links below:

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory Information (Not Issued Yet):
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on&issuedby=BOX&product=SRF

There have been a number of questions from Non-Governmental Organizations and Emergency Management regarding the track of Irene and the track with Earl. There are some significant differences here and they are as follows:

1.) The overall model guidance track of Irene is west of the overall model guidance with Earl.
Last year, Hurricane Earl’s midpoint guidance was about 50-100 miles offshore of Nantucket with some wobbles as far west as the mid to Outer Cape and between Nantucket and Marthas Vinyeard. With Major Hurricane Irene, the west most guidance is the New York City area and Western Long Island New York with the eastern most guidance just east of the Outer Cape and Nantucket. The midpoint of the guidance is somewhere over Southern New England for Major Hurricane Irene. Models have been persistent with this track and that’s why this is different from Earl. There can still be 200 nautical mile track error and that will impact specific conditions but Irene’s impact will be larger than Earl’s was last year. As we get closer, the details will be better known.

2.) Irene is expected to be a stronger system than Earl
With Earl in 2010, he weakened fairly quickly from a strong Category 3 to a Category 1/Tropical Storm. With Irene, she is expected to be a much stronger system as she comes through the region. This will also impact conditions over the region along with the closer track.

3.) The trough at the mid-levels of the atmosphere will amplify much more than the interaction between the trough axis and Earl in 2010. This is another factor in why Irene’s track will be closer to the coast than Earl’s was in 2010 resulting in more significant impact by Irene this year than Earl in 2010.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions as a precaution and start considering low-level preparations of those plans. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below and via a hurricane preparedness guide with a link to that listed below as well:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/announcement/hurricanePreparedness.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time Saturday Afternoon lasting through Monday for impact of Major Hurricane Irene. ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of Major Hurricane Irene and seek advise from local leadership on stand-by status for their area.

Once again, Hurricane Irene should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. The latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory/track information on Major Hurricane Irene from the National Hurricane Center are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Irene Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Track Map provided by the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025514.shtml?5-daynl#contents

The next coordination message will likely be posted some time Thursday Evening pending further computer model data on the track of Irene and significant updates to Irene’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator   
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Read more

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday August 25th, 2011

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across interior Southern New England Thursday Afternoon and Evening with a cold front moving into the area. Heating and destablization in question due to cloud cover. Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats. NWS Taunton and SPC are in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather on Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Timeframe will be mid-afternoon into evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This message abridged to focus on Hurricane Irene Coordination Messages with the next one to be posted by 1130 PM This evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1108241732.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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