Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday August 21st 2011 Severe Weather Threat

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Sunday with the potential for a more widespread severe weather event for interior sections of Southern New England for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and Urban/Poor Drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Storm Prediction Center and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Sunday Afternoon and Evening particularly over Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut but all areas should montior the situation. Timeframe looks to be towards mid to late Sunday afternoon and evening but could start as early as 1 PM..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

Sunday has the potential to be an active severe weather day in portions of interior Southern New England. While Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut are the highest areas of concern, areas to the east could also be affected depending on the timing of a very strong cold front sweeping through the area and the degree of destablization over the region.

Weather models are indicating more instability than previous runs concerning a potential severe weather event for Sunday. The key here will be the amount of sunshine through the day tomorrow and the amount of destablization. Wind shear profiles, as they have been on several events this summer, look very strong and favorable for severe weather. Cooling aloft is expected to occur similar in magnitude to Friday’s severe weather event but different from Friday’s severe weather event is the stronger winds aloft that are expected Sunday. Presuming enough heating and destablization can occur, this could lead to Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms or potential squall line formation over the region with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor draiange flooding as the main threats. If there are more clouds and less destablization, the severe weather could be more isolated to scattered but with the amount of shear and cooling aloft presenting a low instability/high shear environment, there is still likely to be a few isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in this scenario as well.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Ops could start as early as 1 PM or as late as 3-4 PM. This will be adjusted Sunday Morning prior to the next coordination message which will be sent by 1130 AM Sunday. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Oulook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1108201723.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator           
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Sunday with the potential for a more widespread severe weather event for interior sections of Southern New England for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and Urban/Poor Drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Storm Prediction Center and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Sunday Afternoon and Evening particularly over Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut but all areas should montior the situation. Timeframe looks to be towards mid to late Sunday afternoon and evening but could start as early as 1 PM..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

Sunday has the potential to be an active severe weather day in portions of interior Southern New England. While Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut are the highest areas of concern, areas to the east could also be affected depending on the timing of a very strong cold front sweeping through the area and the degree of destablization over the region.

Weather models are indicating more instability than previous runs concerning a potential severe weather event for Sunday. The key here will be the amount of sunshine through the day tomorrow and the amount of destablization. Wind shear profiles, as they have been on several events this summer, look very strong and favorable for severe weather. Cooling aloft is expected to occur similar in magnitude to Friday’s severe weather event but different from Friday’s severe weather event is the stronger winds aloft that are expected Sunday. Presuming enough heating and destablization can occur, this could lead to Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms or potential squall line formation over the region with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor draiange flooding as the main threats. If there are more clouds and less destablization, the severe weather could be more isolated to scattered but with the amount of shear and cooling aloft presenting a low instability/high shear environment, there is still likely to be a few isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in this scenario as well.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Ops could start as early as 1 PM or as late as 3-4 PM. This will be adjusted Sunday Morning prior to the next coordination message which will be sent by 1130 AM Sunday. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Oulook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1108201723.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator           
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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