Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #5

Hello to all..

..Large Hurricane Irene Poised to Strike Southern New England. Track adjusted slightly eastward. Hurricane and Tropical Strom Warnings are now issued. Preparations to protect life and property should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening..
..A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Sagamore Beach Massachusetts through Little River Inlet North Carolina including all the islands of New York and Southern New England. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol, Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI.
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Sagamore Beach Massachusetts to the Merrimack River Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the remainder of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties of Southern New Hampshire..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night..
..Isolated tornadoes will be possible in Central and Eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and portions of Connecticut along and east of the Irene’s track..
..Multiple Models are in agreement on a potential impact to Southern New England in the late Saturday to early Monday timeframe. The extent on specifics of impact have been outlined a bit more with further details to follow by the midday Saturday Irene Coordination Message. Heavy Rain, Damaging Tropical Storm to Hurricane Force Winds, and Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England remain potential threats. The new watch and warning issuances mean increased confidence in this scenario with further details likely provided this evening.
..The threat from Irene is far different from the threat Hurricane Earl posed in 2010. This is explained in detail in this coordination message..
..The models are largely in great agreement on a track just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast into Central Long Island and Central Connecticut. This could pose a widespread wind damage threat to areas along and east of Irene’s track..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets and WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will be active through the weekend for Hurricane Irene’s impacts..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through Monday for impact of Large Hurricane Irene..
..ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of large Hurricane Irene and seek advise from local leadership on stand-by status for their area..
..A Special Reporting Criteria and Safety Message to encompass some of the items that WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, will be looking for will be sent Saturday Morning..
..The first 4 pargraphs of this coordination message contain the most critical updates..

As of the 8 PM National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center Advisory package, Hurricane Warnings have been expanded to include the area from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts to Watch Hill Rhode Island all the way down to Little River Inlet North Carolina. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol, Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI. In the Hurricane Warning area, hurricane force winds sustained or in gusts are likely to occur over the region. Several inches of rain will be expected in this area. Storm Surge flooding will occur across the south facing coastal locations.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Sagamore Beach to Merrimack River Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the remainder of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. In this area, sustained winds to tropical storm force with gusts to high end tropical storm force are expected in the area. There is likely to be 5 to 10 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts in this region. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire. Tropical Storm force conditions and heavy rainfall are possible in the watch area and this may be upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in later forecasts.

Further details to the expected conditions will be made in the Saturday Irene Coordination Message to be posted Noon ET. Additional modifications to these watches to warnings will likely occur Saturday Morning. For New England hurricanes, Heaviest rain are along and to the west of the track with potential for pockets of damaging winds. On the east side of the track, rainfall will be less but a much greater threat for widespread damaging winds.

The track guidance is in good agreement on a track just offshore of the mid-atlantic coast into Central Long Island New York and then into Central Connecticut. This will put portions of Central and much of Eastern Masaschusetts, Rhode Island, and Eastern Connecticut on the damaging wind side of the hurricane. Potentially widespread damaging winds to trees and power lines are likely with pockets of wind damage on the west side of the storm track with very heavy rainfall. Isolated Tornadoes are possible along and to the east of Irene’s track.

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets along with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will be active all weekend. See their respective net links and the link to WX4NHC for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

High Surf conditions are affecting the New England coast. Swells and Rip Currents can be very dangerous to both the experienced and inexperienced swimmer. A rip current risk statement was reissued Friday Morning by NWS Taunton. See links below:

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory/Rip Current Risk Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on&issuedby=BOX&product=SRF

There have been a number of questions from Non-Governmental Organizations and Emergency Management regarding the track of Irene and the track with Earl. There are some significant differences here and they are as follows:

1.) The overall model guidance track of Irene is west of the overall model guidance with Earl.
Last year, Hurricane Earl’s midpoint guidance was about 50-100 miles offshore of Nantucket with some wobbles as far west as the mid to Outer Cape and between Nantucket and Marthas Vinyeard. With Hurricane Irene, the west most guidance is the New York City area and Western Long Island New York with the eastern most guidance just east of the Outer Cape and Nantucket. The midpoint of the guidance is somewhere over Southern New England for Hurricane Irene. Models have been persistent with this track and that’s why this is different from Earl. There can still be 100 nautical mile track error and that will impact specific conditions but Irene’s impact will be larger than Earl’s was last year. As we get closer, the details will be better known.

2.) Irene is expected to be a stronger system than Earl
With Earl in 2010, he weakened fairly quickly from a strong Category 3 to a Category 1/Tropical Storm. With Irene, she is expected to be a much stronger system as she comes through the region. This will also impact conditions over the region along with the closer track.

3.) The trough at the mid-levels of the atmosphere will amplify much more than the interaction between the trough axis and Earl in 2010. This is another factor in why Irene’s track will be closer to the coast than Earl’s was in 2010 resulting in more significant impact by Irene this year than Earl in 2010.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. People should continue reviewing and acting on their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions and have these plans completed by Saturday Evening. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below and via a hurricane preparedness guide with a link to that listed below as well:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/announcement/hurricanePreparedness.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through Monday for impact of Major Hurricane Irene. ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of Large Hurricane Irene and seek advice from local leadership on stand-by status for their area which should soon move into to activation status.

Once again, Hurricane Irene should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England and preparations to protect life and propery should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening. The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement, Flood Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory/track information on Large Hurricane Irene from the National Hurricane Center are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Irene Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Track Map provided by the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025514.shtml?5-daynl#contents

The next coordination message will likely be posted by noon Saturday pending further computer model data on the track of Irene and significant updates to Irene’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective as well as the status on Watches and Warnings for the region.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator      
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Large Hurricane Irene Poised to Strike Southern New England. Track adjusted slightly eastward. Hurricane and Tropical Strom Warnings are now issued. Preparations to protect life and property should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening..
..A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Sagamore Beach Massachusetts through Little River Inlet North Carolina including all the islands of New York and Southern New England. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol, Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI.
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Sagamore Beach Massachusetts to the Merrimack River Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the remainder of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties of Southern New Hampshire..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night..
..Isolated tornadoes will be possible in Central and Eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and portions of Connecticut along and east of the Irene’s track..
..Multiple Models are in agreement on a potential impact to Southern New England in the late Saturday to early Monday timeframe. The extent on specifics of impact have been outlined a bit more with further details to follow by the midday Saturday Irene Coordination Message. Heavy Rain, Damaging Tropical Storm to Hurricane Force Winds, and Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England remain potential threats. The new watch and warning issuances mean increased confidence in this scenario with further details likely provided this evening.
..The threat from Irene is far different from the threat Hurricane Earl posed in 2010. This is explained in detail in this coordination message..
..The models are largely in great agreement on a track just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast into Central Long Island and Central Connecticut. This could pose a widespread wind damage threat to areas along and east of Irene’s track..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets and WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will be active through the weekend for Hurricane Irene’s impacts..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through Monday for impact of Large Hurricane Irene..
..ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of large Hurricane Irene and seek advise from local leadership on stand-by status for their area..
..A Special Reporting Criteria and Safety Message to encompass some of the items that WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, will be looking for will be sent Saturday Morning..
..The first 4 pargraphs of this coordination message contain the most critical updates..

As of the 8 PM National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center Advisory package, Hurricane Warnings have been expanded to include the area from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts to Watch Hill Rhode Island all the way down to Little River Inlet North Carolina. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol, Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI. In the Hurricane Warning area, hurricane force winds sustained or in gusts are likely to occur over the region. Several inches of rain will be expected in this area. Storm Surge flooding will occur across the south facing coastal locations.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Sagamore Beach to Merrimack River Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the remainder of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. In this area, sustained winds to tropical storm force with gusts to high end tropical storm force are expected in the area. There is likely to be 5 to 10 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts in this region. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire. Tropical Storm force conditions and heavy rainfall are possible in the watch area and this may be upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in later forecasts.

Further details to the expected conditions will be made in the Saturday Irene Coordination Message to be posted Noon ET. Additional modifications to these watches to warnings will likely occur Saturday Morning. For New England hurricanes, Heaviest rain are along and to the west of the track with potential for pockets of damaging winds. On the east side of the track, rainfall will be less but a much greater threat for widespread damaging winds.

The track guidance is in good agreement on a track just offshore of the mid-atlantic coast into Central Long Island New York and then into Central Connecticut. This will put portions of Central and much of Eastern Masaschusetts, Rhode Island, and Eastern Connecticut on the damaging wind side of the hurricane. Potentially widespread damaging winds to trees and power lines are likely with pockets of wind damage on the west side of the storm track with very heavy rainfall. Isolated Tornadoes are possible along and to the east of Irene’s track.

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets along with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will be active all weekend. See their respective net links and the link to WX4NHC for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

High Surf conditions are affecting the New England coast. Swells and Rip Currents can be very dangerous to both the experienced and inexperienced swimmer. A rip current risk statement was reissued Friday Morning by NWS Taunton. See links below:

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory/Rip Current Risk Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on&issuedby=BOX&product=SRF

There have been a number of questions from Non-Governmental Organizations and Emergency Management regarding the track of Irene and the track with Earl. There are some significant differences here and they are as follows:

1.) The overall model guidance track of Irene is west of the overall model guidance with Earl.
Last year, Hurricane Earl’s midpoint guidance was about 50-100 miles offshore of Nantucket with some wobbles as far west as the mid to Outer Cape and between Nantucket and Marthas Vinyeard. With Hurricane Irene, the west most guidance is the New York City area and Western Long Island New York with the eastern most guidance just east of the Outer Cape and Nantucket. The midpoint of the guidance is somewhere over Southern New England for Hurricane Irene. Models have been persistent with this track and that’s why this is different from Earl. There can still be 100 nautical mile track error and that will impact specific conditions but Irene’s impact will be larger than Earl’s was last year. As we get closer, the details will be better known.

2.) Irene is expected to be a stronger system than Earl
With Earl in 2010, he weakened fairly quickly from a strong Category 3 to a Category 1/Tropical Storm. With Irene, she is expected to be a much stronger system as she comes through the region. This will also impact conditions over the region along with the closer track.

3.) The trough at the mid-levels of the atmosphere will amplify much more than the interaction between the trough axis and Earl in 2010. This is another factor in why Irene’s track will be closer to the coast than Earl’s was in 2010 resulting in more significant impact by Irene this year than Earl in 2010.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. People should continue reviewing and acting on their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions and have these plans completed by Saturday Evening. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below and via a hurricane preparedness guide with a link to that listed below as well:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/announcement/hurricanePreparedness.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through Monday for impact of Major Hurricane Irene. ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of Large Hurricane Irene and seek advice from local leadership on stand-by status for their area which should soon move into to activation status.

Once again, Hurricane Irene should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England and preparations to protect life and propery should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening. The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement, Flood Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory/track information on Large Hurricane Irene from the National Hurricane Center are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Irene Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Track Map provided by the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025514.shtml?5-daynl#contents

The next coordination message will likely be posted by noon Saturday pending further computer model data on the track of Irene and significant updates to Irene’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective as well as the status on Watches and Warnings for the region.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator      
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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