Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 9/29/11 Severe Weather and Flood Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated strong to possibly even severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening as an upper level low pressure system slowly makes its way through the region over the next several days. Damaging Winds would be the primary threat. Also, areas of heavy rainfall and any embedded thunderstorms may also cause urban/poor drainage flooding over the area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized to cover these possible threats today. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if coverage of heavy rainfall or strong thunderstorms is greater than anticipated..

At 745 AM, Doppler radar showed an area of heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms straddling the New York, Massachusetts and Connecticut border. This area is moving north-northeast and appears as though it will stay west of the NWS Taunton County Warning area or scrape the east slopes of the Berkshires west of the Connecticut River Valley. Other areas of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms are likely to pivot around the upper level low pressure system today and tonight. This may result in urban and poor drainage flooding with the issuance of urban and small stream flood advisories. Overnight, a number areas have received .50-1.50″ of rain with isolated higher amounts over interior Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Southern New Hampshire.

Shear aloft will increase by late afternoon and early evening. At this time, little breaks in the cloud cover are expected but if a few breaks in the clouds were to occur or simply the combination of the cold pool aloft with strong shear may compensate for the lack of heating and result in isolated strong to possibly even severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. This will be monitored throughout the day. A low probability threat area with ‘see text’ has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for much of Western and Central Massachusetts Connecticut and Western Rhode Island and NWS Taunton is in agreement.

It is noted that there could be minor splashover for East Coastal areas of Massachusetts due to onshore flow and high astronomoical tides. No major issues are expected, however.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized to cover these possible threats today. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if coverage of heavy rainfall and urban/poor drainage flooding or isolated strong to severe thunderstorms is greater than anticipated. Another coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops are initiated or self-activation of SKYWARN over a large area occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Coastal Hazard Message and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Hazard Message:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Isolated strong to possibly even severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening as an upper level low pressure system slowly makes its way through the region over the next several days. Damaging Winds would be the primary threat. Also, areas of heavy rainfall and any embedded thunderstorms may also cause urban/poor drainage flooding over the area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized to cover these possible threats today. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if coverage of heavy rainfall or strong thunderstorms is greater than anticipated..

At 745 AM, Doppler radar showed an area of heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms straddling the New York, Massachusetts and Connecticut border. This area is moving north-northeast and appears as though it will stay west of the NWS Taunton County Warning area or scrape the east slopes of the Berkshires west of the Connecticut River Valley. Other areas of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms are likely to pivot around the upper level low pressure system today and tonight. This may result in urban and poor drainage flooding with the issuance of urban and small stream flood advisories. Overnight, a number areas have received .50-1.50″ of rain with isolated higher amounts over interior Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Southern New Hampshire.

Shear aloft will increase by late afternoon and early evening. At this time, little breaks in the cloud cover are expected but if a few breaks in the clouds were to occur or simply the combination of the cold pool aloft with strong shear may compensate for the lack of heating and result in isolated strong to possibly even severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. This will be monitored throughout the day. A low probability threat area with ‘see text’ has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for much of Western and Central Massachusetts Connecticut and Western Rhode Island and NWS Taunton is in agreement.

It is noted that there could be minor splashover for East Coastal areas of Massachusetts due to onshore flow and high astronomoical tides. No major issues are expected, however.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized to cover these possible threats today. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if coverage of heavy rainfall and urban/poor drainage flooding or isolated strong to severe thunderstorms is greater than anticipated. Another coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops are initiated or self-activation of SKYWARN over a large area occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Coastal Hazard Message and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Hazard Message:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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