Storm Coordination Message #1 – Major Early Season Nor’easter/Winter Storm Saturday 10/29/11 Event

Hello to all..

..Anomalous Major Early Season Nor’easter with the potential for heavy wet snow and tree and wire damage for much of interior Southern New England along with strong winds with heavy rain, strong to damaging winds and potential coastal flood issues in Southeast New England from the Boston to Providence corridor south and east through Cape Cod and the Islands. Confidence is growing on a potentially significant major nor’easter event..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Providence County Rhode Island and Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire due to heavy snow accumulations or snowfall impact that is greater than normal due to its heavy, wet nature and foiliage on the trees coupled with strong winds..
..Minor Coastal Flooding is possible at the time of high tide on Saturday Afternoon with the potential of Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding for the Saturday Evening high tide over East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. A Coastal Flood Watch will likely be issued for these tide cycles later today..
..Strong to Damaging winds will also be possible across East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Heavy Rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and rivers and streams rising to bankful are possible over Southeast New England along and southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around 2-4 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely. The start time will be fine tuned between now and Saturday Morning..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Watch area and even outside of the Winter Storm Watch area should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership..

Weather models are now in very good agreement on potentially major impact from a significant major nor’easter/early season winter storm for much of interior Southern New England. East and Southeast coastal areas will see strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and the potential for minor coastal flooding on the Saturday Afternoon high tide with minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of the late Saturday Evening high tide. Exact details will become better defined based on future model runs as we get closer to this potentially major event.

A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Providence County Rhode Island and Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire due to heavy snow accumulations or snowfall impact that is greater than normal due to its heavy, wet nature and foiliage on the trees coupled with strong winds. Snow accumulations of at least 2-5″ are likely. Higher amounts potentially greater than 6″ are also a threat and it is likely to see stated snowfall amounts increase a bit in future statements and weather forecasts as future model runs lend greater confidence to the heavy snow potential. The snowfall is expected across all elevations with the higher elevations receiving the highest amounts. Snowfall of just 3″ due to its heavy and wet content along with foiliage on the trees will likely cause at least isolated tree and wire damage and power outages. Snowfall of 6″ or more would increase the impact further and this is becoming more likely. Strong winds will affect portions of the Winter Storm Watch area with wind gusts up to 20-30 MPH possible. With the heavy, wet snow and wind gusts up to 30 MPH, this could exacerbate any potential damage to trees and wires.

Due to high astronomical tides and northeast fetch, Minor Coastal Flooding is possible at the time of the Saturday Afternoon high tide along East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands. As winds increase into Saturday Evening, this will increase the threat for coastal flooding with minor to moderate coastal flooding possible at the time of high tide late Saturday Evening for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. A Coastal Flood Watch will likely be issued for this potential later today.

Areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch area and especially along and southeast of the Boston to Providence line will likely experience heavy rainfall with rain amounts approaching and possibly exceeding 2″. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding as well as rivers and streams rising to bankful. Strong to damaging winds will also be possible along East and South Coastal Massachusetts as well as Cape Cod and the Islands and a High Wind Watch could be issued for portions of the area later today.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around 2-4 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely. The start time will be fine tuned between now and Saturday Morning. ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Watch area and even outside of the Winter Storm Watch area should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership.

The next coordination message will be sent by 9 PM ET today. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Anomalous Major Early Season Nor’easter with the potential for heavy wet snow and tree and wire damage for much of interior Southern New England along with strong winds with heavy rain, strong to damaging winds and potential coastal flood issues in Southeast New England from the Boston to Providence corridor south and east through Cape Cod and the Islands. Confidence is growing on a potentially significant major nor’easter event..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Providence County Rhode Island and Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire due to heavy snow accumulations or snowfall impact that is greater than normal due to its heavy, wet nature and foiliage on the trees coupled with strong winds..
..Minor Coastal Flooding is possible at the time of high tide on Saturday Afternoon with the potential of Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding for the Saturday Evening high tide over East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. A Coastal Flood Watch will likely be issued for these tide cycles later today..
..Strong to Damaging winds will also be possible across East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Heavy Rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and rivers and streams rising to bankful are possible over Southeast New England along and southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around 2-4 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely. The start time will be fine tuned between now and Saturday Morning..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Watch area and even outside of the Winter Storm Watch area should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership..

Weather models are now in very good agreement on potentially major impact from a significant major nor’easter/early season winter storm for much of interior Southern New England. East and Southeast coastal areas will see strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and the potential for minor coastal flooding on the Saturday Afternoon high tide with minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of the late Saturday Evening high tide. Exact details will become better defined based on future model runs as we get closer to this potentially major event.

A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Providence County Rhode Island and Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire due to heavy snow accumulations or snowfall impact that is greater than normal due to its heavy, wet nature and foiliage on the trees coupled with strong winds. Snow accumulations of at least 2-5″ are likely. Higher amounts potentially greater than 6″ are also a threat and it is likely to see stated snowfall amounts increase a bit in future statements and weather forecasts as future model runs lend greater confidence to the heavy snow potential. The snowfall is expected across all elevations with the higher elevations receiving the highest amounts. Snowfall of just 3″ due to its heavy and wet content along with foiliage on the trees will likely cause at least isolated tree and wire damage and power outages. Snowfall of 6″ or more would increase the impact further and this is becoming more likely. Strong winds will affect portions of the Winter Storm Watch area with wind gusts up to 20-30 MPH possible. With the heavy, wet snow and wind gusts up to 30 MPH, this could exacerbate any potential damage to trees and wires.

Due to high astronomical tides and northeast fetch, Minor Coastal Flooding is possible at the time of the Saturday Afternoon high tide along East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands. As winds increase into Saturday Evening, this will increase the threat for coastal flooding with minor to moderate coastal flooding possible at the time of high tide late Saturday Evening for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. A Coastal Flood Watch will likely be issued for this potential later today.

Areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch area and especially along and southeast of the Boston to Providence line will likely experience heavy rainfall with rain amounts approaching and possibly exceeding 2″. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding as well as rivers and streams rising to bankful. Strong to damaging winds will also be possible along East and South Coastal Massachusetts as well as Cape Cod and the Islands and a High Wind Watch could be issued for portions of the area later today.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around 2-4 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely. The start time will be fine tuned between now and Saturday Morning. ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Watch area and even outside of the Winter Storm Watch area should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership.

The next coordination message will be sent by 9 PM ET today. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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