Storm Coordination Message #2 – Major Early Season Nor’easter/Winter Storm Saturday-Sunday 10/29-10/30/11 Event

Hello to all..

..Anomalous Major Early Season Nor’easter taking aim on Southern New England. The most significant threat is for heavy wet snow and strong winds causing tree and power line damage in interior Southern New England but heavy rain, strong to damaging winds and coastal flood potential will affect coastal Southern New England. Preparations, particularly in interior Southern New England but also in coastal areas, for potential tree and wire damage and power outages should be completed by late Saturday Afternoon..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts including Northern Middlesex County Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire for 6-12″ of wet snow with highest amounts in the higher elevations of the warning area. This has the potential to produce widespread tree and power line damage and power outages over a portion of the warning area between the wet snow and strong winds that could gust between 25 and 45 MPH with stronger wind gusts in the southern and eastern portions of the warning area and in the higher elevations..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Central Middlesex, Western Essex, Western Norfolk, and Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts and Providence County RI. 2-6″ of snow is possible in the Winter Storm Watch area and higher amounts of 6″ or more remain uncertain for this part of the region..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm Warning/Watch area may receive heavy rainfall around or in excess of 2″ leading to possible urban and poor drainage flooding in those locations and rivers and streams rising to bankful..
..A High Wind Watch is in effect for Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands and Saturday Evening through Sunday Morning for Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH particularly in coastal locations..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for Saturday Evening through late Saturday Night for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for the late Saturday Evening high tide cycle. A Coastal Flood Advisory may be required for the Saturday Afternoon high tide cycle for minor coastal flooding during that high tide cycle..
..SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around 400 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely. The start time will be fine tuned further between now and Saturday Morning..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Warning/Watch in particular but also in the Coastal Flood Watch and High Wind Watch areas should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership..

Confidence continues to grow in a major early season and anomalous nor’easter storm that will bring heavy wet snow to the interior, heavy rainfall to the coast, strong to damaging winds especially along coastal areas and coastal flooding along the east coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and Islands region. Model runs continue to converge on this solution and have increased the amount of precipitation over the region as well. The headlines of this coordination message detail the threats for each area well. A few details that have yet to be determined that will be fine tuned over the next 12 to 24 hours include:

1.) A storm track difference of as little as 30-50 miles could impact the storm conditions over the area. 30-50 miles further west, and the heaviest snow is further west into western portions of the warning area with mostly rain in the east. A track 30-50 miles further east would result in more snow further east and extending into the Winter Storm Watch area.

2.) There is likely a zone within the Winter Storm Warning area of heavy snowfall with high water content that will result in extensive tree and power line damage and potential for widespread power outages. That zone within the warning area will be tough to determine and depend on mesoscale conditions that include the cooling of the ground, the heaviest precipitation, strongest winds and temperature.

3.) Where this is a nor’easter in October and it is quite anomalous in terms of having a heavy snowfall event during this month, the nature of such an event may sound unlikely and can lead to less preparation and lower forecaster confidence. That said, there is multiple model agreement on this solution so it needs to be prepared for accordingly. There will be some mesoscale or short-term storm effects that the weather models will not pick up on that will probably need to be addressed as the storm unfolds over the region but the overall event seems likely based on multi-model run agreement and consensus of the models.

People in the Winter Storm Watch/Warning area should prepare for the potential of power outages. Having batteries and alternate power sources ready prior to late Saturday Afternoon for this storm would be advisable. If power isn’t lost in this event, you will be prepared for the next potential incident that results in power loss. Also, since this is an unusually early winter storm event, please be mindful of winter storm safety tips as listed below from last year’s NWS Taunton Winter Weather Awareness Week Statements and the NOAA Winter Preparedness Guide:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/winter_safety.txt
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/winterstorm/winterstorms.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around 400 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely. The start time will be fine tuned further between now and Saturday Morning. ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Warning/Watch in particular but also in the Coastal Flood Watch and High Wind Watch areas should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership.

The next coordination message will be sent by 1230 PM Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator        
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Anomalous Major Early Season Nor’easter taking aim on Southern New England. The most significant threat is for heavy wet snow and strong winds causing tree and power line damage in interior Southern New England but heavy rain, strong to damaging winds and coastal flood potential will affect coastal Southern New England. Preparations, particularly in interior Southern New England but also in coastal areas, for potential tree and wire damage and power outages should be completed by late Saturday Afternoon..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts including Northern Middlesex County Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire for 6-12″ of wet snow with highest amounts in the higher elevations of the warning area. This has the potential to produce widespread tree and power line damage and power outages over a portion of the warning area between the wet snow and strong winds that could gust between 25 and 45 MPH with stronger wind gusts in the southern and eastern portions of the warning area and in the higher elevations..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Central Middlesex, Western Essex, Western Norfolk, and Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts and Providence County RI. 2-6″ of snow is possible in the Winter Storm Watch area and higher amounts of 6″ or more remain uncertain for this part of the region..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm Warning/Watch area may receive heavy rainfall around or in excess of 2″ leading to possible urban and poor drainage flooding in those locations and rivers and streams rising to bankful..
..A High Wind Watch is in effect for Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands and Saturday Evening through Sunday Morning for Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH particularly in coastal locations..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for Saturday Evening through late Saturday Night for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for the late Saturday Evening high tide cycle. A Coastal Flood Advisory may be required for the Saturday Afternoon high tide cycle for minor coastal flooding during that high tide cycle..
..SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around 400 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely. The start time will be fine tuned further between now and Saturday Morning..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Warning/Watch in particular but also in the Coastal Flood Watch and High Wind Watch areas should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership..

Confidence continues to grow in a major early season and anomalous nor’easter storm that will bring heavy wet snow to the interior, heavy rainfall to the coast, strong to damaging winds especially along coastal areas and coastal flooding along the east coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and Islands region. Model runs continue to converge on this solution and have increased the amount of precipitation over the region as well. The headlines of this coordination message detail the threats for each area well. A few details that have yet to be determined that will be fine tuned over the next 12 to 24 hours include:

1.) A storm track difference of as little as 30-50 miles could impact the storm conditions over the area. 30-50 miles further west, and the heaviest snow is further west into western portions of the warning area with mostly rain in the east. A track 30-50 miles further east would result in more snow further east and extending into the Winter Storm Watch area.

2.) There is likely a zone within the Winter Storm Warning area of heavy snowfall with high water content that will result in extensive tree and power line damage and potential for widespread power outages. That zone within the warning area will be tough to determine and depend on mesoscale conditions that include the cooling of the ground, the heaviest precipitation, strongest winds and temperature.

3.) Where this is a nor’easter in October and it is quite anomalous in terms of having a heavy snowfall event during this month, the nature of such an event may sound unlikely and can lead to less preparation and lower forecaster confidence. That said, there is multiple model agreement on this solution so it needs to be prepared for accordingly. There will be some mesoscale or short-term storm effects that the weather models will not pick up on that will probably need to be addressed as the storm unfolds over the region but the overall event seems likely based on multi-model run agreement and consensus of the models.

People in the Winter Storm Watch/Warning area should prepare for the potential of power outages. Having batteries and alternate power sources ready prior to late Saturday Afternoon for this storm would be advisable. If power isn’t lost in this event, you will be prepared for the next potential incident that results in power loss. Also, since this is an unusually early winter storm event, please be mindful of winter storm safety tips as listed below from last year’s NWS Taunton Winter Weather Awareness Week Statements and the NOAA Winter Preparedness Guide:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/winter_safety.txt
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/winterstorm/winterstorms.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around 400 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely. The start time will be fine tuned further between now and Saturday Morning. ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Warning/Watch in particular but also in the Coastal Flood Watch and High Wind Watch areas should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership.

The next coordination message will be sent by 1230 PM Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator        
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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