Storm Coordination Message #3 – Major Historic Early Season Nor’easter/Winter Storm Saturday-Sunday 10/29-10/30/11 Event

Hello to all..

..Anomalous and Historic Major Early Season Nor’easter taking aim on Southern New England. The most significant threat is for heavy wet snow and strong winds causing tree and power line damage in interior Southern New England but heavy rain, strong to damaging winds and coastal flood potential will affect coastal Southern New England. Preparations, particularly in interior Southern New England but also in coastal areas, for potential tree and wire damage and power outages should be completed by late Saturday Afternoon..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts including Northern Middlesex County Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire for 6-12″ of wet snow with highest amounts in the higher elevations of the warning area where a few locations could exceed 12″. This has the potential to produce widespread tree and power line damage and power outages over a portion of the warning area between the wet snow and strong winds that could gust between 25 and 45 MPH with stronger wind gusts in the southern and eastern portions of the warning area and in the higher elevations..
..A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 6 PM this evening through 8 AM Sunday for Central Middlesex, Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County RI for 4-6″ of heavy wet snow and strong winds which will result in tree and power line damage and an area of widespread power outages. Winds could be sustained at 25-35 MPH with gusts up to 50-55 MPH..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 6 PM This Evening to 8 AM Sunday for 2-5″ of heavy wet snow and pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages for Western Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex County, Northern Bristol County of Massachusetts and Southeast Providence County Rhode Island..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 6 PM this evening through 8 AM Sunday for the North Shore of Massachusetts, the Greater Boston Metro area, Eastern Norfolk County, and the remainder of Rhode Island and the South Coast of Massachusetts to the Cape Cod Canal for 1-4″ of snow and strong winds causing pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm Warning area and in the Winter Weather Advisory area may receive heavy rainfall around or in excess of 2″ leading to possible urban and poor drainage flooding in those locations and rivers and streams rising to bankful. A Flood Watch or Flood Advisories for urban and poor draiange areas could be issued for some of these areas as we get closer to the event..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 2 PM Saturday Afternoon through 8 AM Sunday for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts up to 70 MPH..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 8 PM this evening through 8 AM Sunday for all of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts except for Central and Northern Middlesex Counties, and Western Essex County of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for sustained winds 20-30 MPH with gusts to 55-60 MPH..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 10 AM to 5 PM today for the Saturday Afternoon high tide. Winds will begin to increase out of the East and Northeast and this with a high astronomical high tide may result in some minor shore road flooding in the flood prone coastal areas. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect from 11 PM Saturday Evening through 5 AM Sunday Morning for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. The late Saturday Evening to Sunday Morning high tide could result in moderate coastal flooding along poritons of the Coastal Flood Warning area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 400 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Warning area in particular but also in the Winter Weather Advisory/Coastal Flood Warning and High Wind Warning areas should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous, historic early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership..

There remains high confidence in a major early season and anomalous nor’easter storm that will bring heavy wet snow to the interior, heavy rainfall to the coast, strong to damaging winds especially along coastal areas and coastal flooding along the east coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and Islands region. Model runs continue to converge on this solution and have increased the amount of precipitation over the region and have gotten a bit colder with the latest runs. The headlines of this coordination message detail the threats for each area well. Some details that could affect the forecast.

1.) Latest model runs have resulted in colder temperatures further east reesulting in the Winter Storm Warning being posted for some of the Winter Storm Watch areas from last night and Winter Weather Advisories brought down through the Boston to Providence area and coastal locations. It is noted that a storm track difference of as little as 30-50 miles could impact the storm conditions over the area. 30-50 miles further west, and the heaviest snow is further west into western portions of the warning area with mostly rain in the east. A track 30-50 miles further east would result in more snow further east. This is within the resolution of the models and can depend on other mesoscale factors so there still could be some fluctations in what’s expected particularly in the Metro Boston and Providence areas as well as along coastal locations.

2.) There is likely a zone within the Winter Storm Warning area of heavy snowfall with high water content that will result in extensive tree and power line damage and potential for widespread power outages. That zone within the warning area will be tough to determine and depend on mesoscale conditions that include the cooling of the ground, the heaviest precipitation, strongest winds and temperature. Also, the speed with which rain changes over to snow across the area and the elevation dependency will cause variations in snowfall amounts.

3.) Where this is a nor’easter in October and it is quite anomalous in terms of having a heavy snowfall event during this month, the nature of such an event may sound unlikely and can lead to less preparation and lower forecaster confidence. That said, there is multiple model agreement on this solution so it needs to be prepared for accordingly. There will be some mesoscale or short-term storm effects that the weather models will not pick up on that will probably need to be addressed as the storm unfolds over the region but the overall event seems likely based on multi-model run agreement and consensus of the models and this has the potential to be a high impact event for the region.

People in the Winter Storm Warning area in particular but also in the Winter Weather Advisory/Coastal Flood Warning/High Wind Warning areas should prepare for the potential of power outages. Having batteries and alternate power sources ready prior to late Saturday Afternoon for this storm would be advisable. If power isn’t lost in this event, you will be prepared for the next potential incident that results in power loss. Also, since this is an unusually early winter storm event, please be mindful of winter storm safety tips as listed below from last year’s NWS Taunton Winter Weather Awareness Week Statements and the NOAA Winter Preparedness Guide:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/winter_safety.txt
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/winterstorm/winterstorms.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 400 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely. ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Warning area in particular but also in the Winter Weather Advisory/Coastal Flood Warning and High Wind Warning areas should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous, historic early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership.

This will likely be the last coordination message on this event. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator         
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Anomalous and Historic Major Early Season Nor’easter taking aim on Southern New England. The most significant threat is for heavy wet snow and strong winds causing tree and power line damage in interior Southern New England but heavy rain, strong to damaging winds and coastal flood potential will affect coastal Southern New England. Preparations, particularly in interior Southern New England but also in coastal areas, for potential tree and wire damage and power outages should be completed by late Saturday Afternoon..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts including Northern Middlesex County Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire for 6-12″ of wet snow with highest amounts in the higher elevations of the warning area where a few locations could exceed 12″. This has the potential to produce widespread tree and power line damage and power outages over a portion of the warning area between the wet snow and strong winds that could gust between 25 and 45 MPH with stronger wind gusts in the southern and eastern portions of the warning area and in the higher elevations..
..A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 6 PM this evening through 8 AM Sunday for Central Middlesex, Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County RI for 4-6″ of heavy wet snow and strong winds which will result in tree and power line damage and an area of widespread power outages. Winds could be sustained at 25-35 MPH with gusts up to 50-55 MPH..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 6 PM This Evening to 8 AM Sunday for 2-5″ of heavy wet snow and pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages for Western Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex County, Northern Bristol County of Massachusetts and Southeast Providence County Rhode Island..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 6 PM this evening through 8 AM Sunday for the North Shore of Massachusetts, the Greater Boston Metro area, Eastern Norfolk County, and the remainder of Rhode Island and the South Coast of Massachusetts to the Cape Cod Canal for 1-4″ of snow and strong winds causing pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm Warning area and in the Winter Weather Advisory area may receive heavy rainfall around or in excess of 2″ leading to possible urban and poor drainage flooding in those locations and rivers and streams rising to bankful. A Flood Watch or Flood Advisories for urban and poor draiange areas could be issued for some of these areas as we get closer to the event..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 2 PM Saturday Afternoon through 8 AM Sunday for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts up to 70 MPH..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 8 PM this evening through 8 AM Sunday for all of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts except for Central and Northern Middlesex Counties, and Western Essex County of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for sustained winds 20-30 MPH with gusts to 55-60 MPH..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 10 AM to 5 PM today for the Saturday Afternoon high tide. Winds will begin to increase out of the East and Northeast and this with a high astronomical high tide may result in some minor shore road flooding in the flood prone coastal areas. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect from 11 PM Saturday Evening through 5 AM Sunday Morning for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. The late Saturday Evening to Sunday Morning high tide could result in moderate coastal flooding along poritons of the Coastal Flood Warning area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 400 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Warning area in particular but also in the Winter Weather Advisory/Coastal Flood Warning and High Wind Warning areas should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous, historic early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership..

There remains high confidence in a major early season and anomalous nor’easter storm that will bring heavy wet snow to the interior, heavy rainfall to the coast, strong to damaging winds especially along coastal areas and coastal flooding along the east coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and Islands region. Model runs continue to converge on this solution and have increased the amount of precipitation over the region and have gotten a bit colder with the latest runs. The headlines of this coordination message detail the threats for each area well. Some details that could affect the forecast.

1.) Latest model runs have resulted in colder temperatures further east reesulting in the Winter Storm Warning being posted for some of the Winter Storm Watch areas from last night and Winter Weather Advisories brought down through the Boston to Providence area and coastal locations. It is noted that a storm track difference of as little as 30-50 miles could impact the storm conditions over the area. 30-50 miles further west, and the heaviest snow is further west into western portions of the warning area with mostly rain in the east. A track 30-50 miles further east would result in more snow further east. This is within the resolution of the models and can depend on other mesoscale factors so there still could be some fluctations in what’s expected particularly in the Metro Boston and Providence areas as well as along coastal locations.

2.) There is likely a zone within the Winter Storm Warning area of heavy snowfall with high water content that will result in extensive tree and power line damage and potential for widespread power outages. That zone within the warning area will be tough to determine and depend on mesoscale conditions that include the cooling of the ground, the heaviest precipitation, strongest winds and temperature. Also, the speed with which rain changes over to snow across the area and the elevation dependency will cause variations in snowfall amounts.

3.) Where this is a nor’easter in October and it is quite anomalous in terms of having a heavy snowfall event during this month, the nature of such an event may sound unlikely and can lead to less preparation and lower forecaster confidence. That said, there is multiple model agreement on this solution so it needs to be prepared for accordingly. There will be some mesoscale or short-term storm effects that the weather models will not pick up on that will probably need to be addressed as the storm unfolds over the region but the overall event seems likely based on multi-model run agreement and consensus of the models and this has the potential to be a high impact event for the region.

People in the Winter Storm Warning area in particular but also in the Winter Weather Advisory/Coastal Flood Warning/High Wind Warning areas should prepare for the potential of power outages. Having batteries and alternate power sources ready prior to late Saturday Afternoon for this storm would be advisable. If power isn’t lost in this event, you will be prepared for the next potential incident that results in power loss. Also, since this is an unusually early winter storm event, please be mindful of winter storm safety tips as listed below from last year’s NWS Taunton Winter Weather Awareness Week Statements and the NOAA Winter Preparedness Guide:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/winter_safety.txt
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/winterstorm/winterstorms.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 400 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely. ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Warning area in particular but also in the Winter Weather Advisory/Coastal Flood Warning and High Wind Warning areas should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous, historic early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership.

This will likely be the last coordination message on this event. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator         
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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