Storm Coordination Message #3 – Moderate Snowstorm Event Wednesday 2/29/12-Thursday 3/1/12

Hello to all..

..Moderate Snowstorm to affect the region this afternoon through Thursday Afternoon. Level of forecaster confidence is a bit lower than normal due to questions regarding how far south the cold air will remain over the region..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from Noon today to 6 PM Thursday Evening for Southern New Hampshire, Franklin, Hampshire, Western Hampden, Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 6-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts along with a trace of ice. Snow will impact the Wednesday Evening and Thursday Morning commutes..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Eastern Essex, Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk Counties from Noon today through 6 PM Thursday and for Eastern Hampsden County from Noon today through 6 AM Thursday for 4-6″ of snow along with a trace of ice. Snow will impact that Wednesday Evening Commute in Eastern Hampden County with the Wednesday Evening and Thursday Morning commutes impacted in the rest of this advisory area..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday for 2-4″ of snow along with a trace of ice for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence and Western Kent Counties RI with the Wednesday Evening commute impacted..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from Noon to Midnight today for Northern Bristol, and Western Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Southeast Providence, Eastern Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island for 2-4″ of snow along with a trace of ice. The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island as snow accumulations there should be 2″ or less with negligible ice accumulation as preciptiation changes to rain. Cape Cod and the Islands will see a mostly rain event..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely today. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible. A shortened coordination message will be issued later today on activation plans and potential net call-ups..

There remains a bit of a split in the model guidance with one model insisting on a warmer solution over the area while several other reliable models continue to indicate a colder solution. Additional forecast adjustments could be made over the region based on the amount of cold air that maintains itself over the current warning/advisory areas and how far south the cold air is able to maintain itself. This will be contingent on how heavy the precipitation is on its onset to allow for cooling over the area and how much cold air from high pressure in Canada filters into the area and how far south as the storm passes through the area.

The headlines above detail the storm situation. The biggest changes are the conversion of a Winter Storm Watch to Winter storm Warning for much of the North-Central interior Massachusetts area as well as Southern New Hampshire and for Winter Weather Advisories to be issued through the Boston to Providence corridor. Winter Weather Advisories were cancelled for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island as any snow will be 2″ or less with neglibile icing before changing to rain. Cape Cod and the Islands will be mostly rain for this storm event. Winds will not be an issue with this storm system.

SKYWARN Activation in some form remains likely. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible. A shortened coordination message will be sent regarding changes in activation status later this morning or midday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Snowfall forecast map and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Forecast Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Moderate Snowstorm to affect the region this afternoon through Thursday Afternoon. Level of forecaster confidence is a bit lower than normal due to questions regarding how far south the cold air will remain over the region..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from Noon today to 6 PM Thursday Evening for Southern New Hampshire, Franklin, Hampshire, Western Hampden, Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 6-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts along with a trace of ice. Snow will impact the Wednesday Evening and Thursday Morning commutes..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Eastern Essex, Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk Counties from Noon today through 6 PM Thursday and for Eastern Hampsden County from Noon today through 6 AM Thursday for 4-6″ of snow along with a trace of ice. Snow will impact that Wednesday Evening Commute in Eastern Hampden County with the Wednesday Evening and Thursday Morning commutes impacted in the rest of this advisory area..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday for 2-4″ of snow along with a trace of ice for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence and Western Kent Counties RI with the Wednesday Evening commute impacted..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from Noon to Midnight today for Northern Bristol, and Western Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Southeast Providence, Eastern Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island for 2-4″ of snow along with a trace of ice. The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island as snow accumulations there should be 2″ or less with negligible ice accumulation as preciptiation changes to rain. Cape Cod and the Islands will see a mostly rain event..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely today. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible. A shortened coordination message will be issued later today on activation plans and potential net call-ups..

There remains a bit of a split in the model guidance with one model insisting on a warmer solution over the area while several other reliable models continue to indicate a colder solution. Additional forecast adjustments could be made over the region based on the amount of cold air that maintains itself over the current warning/advisory areas and how far south the cold air is able to maintain itself. This will be contingent on how heavy the precipitation is on its onset to allow for cooling over the area and how much cold air from high pressure in Canada filters into the area and how far south as the storm passes through the area.

The headlines above detail the storm situation. The biggest changes are the conversion of a Winter Storm Watch to Winter storm Warning for much of the North-Central interior Massachusetts area as well as Southern New Hampshire and for Winter Weather Advisories to be issued through the Boston to Providence corridor. Winter Weather Advisories were cancelled for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island as any snow will be 2″ or less with neglibile icing before changing to rain. Cape Cod and the Islands will be mostly rain for this storm event. Winds will not be an issue with this storm system.

SKYWARN Activation in some form remains likely. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible. A shortened coordination message will be sent regarding changes in activation status later this morning or midday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Snowfall forecast map and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Forecast Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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