Storm Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday Evening 9/18/12-Wednesday Morning 9/19/12 Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Strong Storm system is still expected to bring a period of heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds and Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging wind and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton coverage area including Southern New Hampshire from 4 AM Today through 6 AM Wednesday for sustained winds 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. Isolated higher wind gusts are possible in higher terrain locations as well as some south coastal areas..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much Western and Central Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for this evening into early Wednesday Morning..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 6 PM ET Tuesday Evening lasting through early Wednesday Morning..

A strong cold front will bring heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds and the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and urban and poor drainage flooding. The focus of the activity will be during Tuesday Evening lasting through Wednesday Morning. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton coverage area including Southern New Hampshire from 4 PM today through 6 AM Wednesday. The strongest winds are expected in the Connecticut River Valley from 4 PM to Midnight and from 7 PM to 6 AM from the Worcester hills to the coastal areas. There is the potential for isolated higher wind gusts in higher terrain and coastal locations that may reach High Wind Warning criteria and this will be monitored through the event.

The Storm Prediction Center has extended the Slight Risk area for severe thunderstorms to include much of Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible later this evening and will be capable of damaging winds and urban and poor drainage flooding. This would likely be in a line configuration of storms affecting the area with convection capable of mixing strong winds aloft down to the surface. Other areas outside of the Slight Risk area in the NWS Taunton coverage area have the potential for an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm as well with this storm system.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 6 PM ET Tuesday Evening lasting through early Wednesday Morning for this storm system. This will likely be the last coordination message on this event unless a significant change to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 9/18/12-Wednesday Morning 9/19/12 Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Strong Storm system to bring a period of heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds and Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging wind and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats..
..A High Wind Watch is in effect Tuesday Afternoon through Wednesday Morning for strong to possibly damaging winds for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage area except for Southern New Hampshire for southerly wind gusts of 45-55 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts over the higher terrain and south coastal New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 6 PM ET Tuesday Evening lasting through early Wednesday Morning..

A strong cold front will bring heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds and the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and urban and poor drainage flooding. The focus of the activity will be during Tuesday Evening lasting through Wednesday Morning. A High Wind Watch is in effect for the entire NWS Taunton coverage area except for Southern New Hampshire for Tuesday Evening into Wednesday Morning. The strongest winds are expected in the Connecticut River Valley from 4 PM to Midnight and from 7 PM to 4 AM from the Worcester hills to the coastal areas.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Southwest Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms and the potential exists for Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and urban and poor drainage flooding. This would likely be in a line configuration of storms affecting the area. Other areas outside of the Slight Risk area in the NWS Taunton coverage area have the potential for an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm as well with this storm system.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 6 PM ET Tuesday Evening lasting through early Wednesday Morning for this storm system. Another coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 9/8/12 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Potential remains for a significant severe weather outbreak across portions of Western and Central New England from Western Middlesex County Massachusetts through Eastern New York State, most of Southern New Hampshire, and most of Connecticut, particularly Western and Central Connecticut. Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely in Eastern New England from Eastern Connecticut through Rhode Island, Eastern Massachusetts and Southeast New Hampshire..
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has continued a Moderate Risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts, and Western and Central Connecticut and a Slight Risk for severe weather exists for Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Eastern Massachusetts into Southeast New Hampshire. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding and an isolated tornado risk are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM ET Saturday with the threat timeframe being mid-afternoon through late evening..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of this weather situation and seek consultation from local leaderhsip..

Satellite imagery is showing clouds with some breaks over the region and similar breaks with clouds over New York and the Mid-Atlantic area. The clouds are expected to thin out a bit more which should allow for sufficient heating and destablization with very strong wind shear over the area for a potentially significant severe weather outbreak. SPC has continued with a moderate risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts, and Western and Central Connecticut and a Slight Risk for severe weather exists for Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Eastern Massachusetts into Southeast New Hampshire. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding and an isolated tornado risk are the primary threats.

The expected scenario is that isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will organize during the afternoon and early evening hours and these could be discreet supercells capable of damaging winds, large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding and the isolated tornado threat would be maximized with these discreet cells. As we get toward early to mid evening, a squall line of severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds of at least 60 MPH and possibly over 70 MPH, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding will sweep through the region. The activity will be strongest over the Moderate Risk area but could also affect the Slight Risk area of Eastern New England in a weaker state as the cold front sweeps offshore of the region by Sunday Morning. The squall line is likely the biggest threat in today’s expected severe weather scenario but isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms out ahead of the squall line may pose the risk of an isolated tornado.

As mentioned in the prior coordination message, there are some factors to be contended with that could mitigate the threat. Some of the factors here include:

1.) Sufficient clearing to allow for heating and destablization over the course of the day Saturday across the region or the ability of jet dynamics and strong wind shear that is expected to accompany to cold front to overcome any potential lack of heating.

2.) Cold frontal timing may be past peak heating of the day which could be a mitigating factor unless favorably strong wind shear profiles have the ability to compensate for frontal timing if past peak heating.

It is noted that a previous moderate risk for severe weather earlier this summer resulted in no severe weather over the area. The factors in this scenario are different and appear a bit more favorable. Also, in general, the last 3 of 4 moderate risk areas have verified over our area and in the case of the last moderate risk area, it was verified across New York and the mid atlantic states.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM ET Saturday lasting through early Sunday Morning. The threat for severe weather is centered anytime from mid-afternoon through late evening. ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of this weather situation and seek consultation from local leaderhsip. This will likely be the last coordination message for this potential severe weather event as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Public Severe Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and SPC Experimental Briefing from 600 AM today that will not be updated again but could be a useful briefing tool:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Public Severe Weather Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Experimental Multimedia Briefing in MP4 Format:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.mp4

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator     
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday September 8th, 2012 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Potential for a Severe Weather Outbreak across portions of Western and Central New England from Western Middlesex County Massachusetts west, most of Southern New Hampshire and most of Connecticut. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. Isolated supercells are possible if storms organize ahead of what is expected to be a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms..
..SPC has placed portions of Western and Central New England in a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather with a Slight Risk for severe weather across Eastern New England. NWS Taunton is in agreement on a potential severe weather threat..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely mid-to-late Saturday Afternoon through early Sunday Morning..

The potential exists for a severe weather outbreak across portions of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area of Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and much of Connecticut in a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather with a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across much of the remainder of Eastern New England. The severe weather threat surrounds a cold front in the Midwest United States which will enter the Northeast on Saturday and traverse off the coast by early Sunday Morning. Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could develop by mid to late afternoon across the area ahead of the cold front. These isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could allow for a supercell or two to form over the area. Following those storms, a long-lived Squall line of thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the main threats could traverse the region.

As always with forecasting severe weather outbreaks, there are some factors to be contended with that could mitigate the threat. Some of the factors here include:

1.) Sufficient clearing to allow for heating and destablization over the course of the day Saturday across the region or the ability of jet dynamics and strong wind shear that is expected to accompany to cold front to overcome any potential lack of heating.

2.) Cold frontal timing may be past peak heating of the day which could be a mitigating factor unless favorably strong wind shear profiles have the ability to compensate for frontal timing if past peak heating.

It is noted that a previous moderate risk for severe weather earlier this summer resulted in no severe weather over the area. The factors in this scenario are different and appear a bit more favorable. Also, in general, the last 3 of 4 moderate risk areas have verified over our area and in the case of the last moderate risk area, it was verified across the mid atlantic states.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime in the Saturday mid-to-late afternoon timeframe through early Sunday Morning. Another coordination messages will be posted by Noon Saturday. Below is the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator     
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Special Announcement: 13th Annual Southern New England Weather Conference – Saturday October 27th, 2012

Hello to all..

The following is an announcement from KB1GHX-Glenn Field, NWS Taunton Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM), regarding the 13th Annual Southern New England Weather Conference on Saturday October 27th, 2012. The announcement is listed below:

Earlybird registration is now available through Sept. 9 for this year’s 13th Annual Southern New England Weather Conference.  The conference will be held on Saturday, October 27th at Meditech Corp. in Canton, MA (at base of Blue Hill), same place as last year.

The conference is sponsored by the not-for-profit Blue Hill Observatory Science Center.  We have a fantastic program lined up for this year.  Unlike previous conferences, which covered a wide range of meteorological topics, this year we are going to explore in-depth three major events that all happened in 2011: 

1) the June 1 Springfield/Monson/Brimfield Tornado
2) Tropical Storm Irene
3) “Snowtober” — the late October 2011 snowstorm. 

We plan to cover each event from several interesting angles.  For example, for the tornado, we will discuss meteorological factors; have tv meteorologists show media storm coverage; give a talk on the disaster surveying process and its challenges; and we will hear personal accounts from survivors and even a reverend who will discuss how he handled the spiritual healing for the bereaved and other townsfolk.  For Irene, we will have presentations from the CT Dept. of Emergency Services and Public Protection, by the East Haven Fire Chief (Cosey Beach had tremendous coastal flooding), by the U.S. Geological Survey, by NWS-Burlington and the Executive Director of the Blue Hill Observatory (who lives in Vermont), etc.  And for Snowtober, we will address some issues that may not first come to mind, such as air quality issues that resulted from use of wood-burning stoves… and Jet Blue Airlines will be there to discuss an operational airline perspective and the impacts of the storm (remember the stranded passengers at Bradley International Airport?).  National Grid will give a presentation on the wild weather of 2011 and its impact on the delivery of electricity (tornadoes, hurricanes, snowstorms each require different types of restoration planning). 

Assuming there is no major outbreak of severe weather the last week of October, our keynote speaker in the afternoon will be Dr. Greg Forbes, the Severe Weather Expert from The Weather Channel in Atlanta, GA to discuss the very severe 2011 that struck the entire nation.  Also, before the conference, we will be having a “Breakfast with Matt” with some tidbits about various weather websites.

The cost of the earlybird registration (collected by Blue Hill Observatory Science Center) is $89; after Sept. 10, it increases to $99…and registration onsite will be $109.  This includes a continental breakfast and a delicious hot lunch buffet provided by Rita’s Catering of Boston. 

Conference website: http://www.sneweatherconf.org
Conference agenda/abstracts/biographies:  http://www.sneweatherconf.org/2012Agenda.shtml
Conference registration:  http://www.sneweatherconf.org/confregform.cfm

Please share this with all of your colleagues/friends… or anyone else… it is open to the entire general public and is presented at a very understandable level — it’s not a conference just for meteorologists!  Thanks and hope to see you there.

— Glenn Field -WCM; NWS Taunton

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator     
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Read more