Hurricane Sandy Coordination Message #4

Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy moving Northwest away from the Bahamas. Impact on the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast now the focus. Sandy is still expected to become a large storm system off the US East Coast of either tropical nature or of hybrid (both tropical and non-tropical) nature with potential significant impacts to much of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area in the late Sunday Night through Tuesday timeframe. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Savannah River to Oregon Inlet North Carolina, Pamlico Sound, Florida East Coast from North of Flagler Beach to Fernandia Beach Florida, Florida Upper Keys from Ocean Reef to Criag Key and Florida Bay..
..Multiple reliable computer weather models depict a powerful storm system of large and severe nature taking aim on portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast. The potential exists for either a close pass from the storm resulting in strong to damaging winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding and isolated to scattered power outages or for a near direct hit to direct hit with damaging to hurricane force winds with widespread downed trees and wires and power outages, significant beach erosion and coastal storm surge flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for the region. Again, the timeframe for potential impact will be in the Sunday Night through Tuesday timeframe..
..Interests in Southern New England should continue monitoring the progress of Hurricane Sandy. The National Hurricane Center Advisories are now requesting interests along the entire US East Coast to closely monitor the progress of Sandy and the ‘cone of uncertainity’ on the track of Sandy is now covering much of Southern New England..
..In this coordination message, we will update the impacts based on the current reliable track solutions available at the time of issuance of this coordination message..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely as early as late Sunday Night through Tuesday..
..ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership..
..To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region..

Hurricane Sandy is moving away from the Bahamas on a Northwest Track. Sandy continues to expand with a wind radius now 275 miles. The storm will likely expand further and likely have a wind field greater than 350 miles wide. Sandy is then expected to move parallel but offshore of the US East Coast. Multiple computer models are depicting a scenario where Sandy, either as a tropical system or a hybrid/nor’easter system with both tropical and non-tropical characteristics tracks into either the northern mid-atlantic or Southern New England providing either a moderate to severe impact to the region. A scenario where Sandy moves out to sea is now off largely off the table.

Here is an update on the scenarios. A track of this storm at or north of Cape May New Jersey will mean major impact to Southern New England which would mean damaging to hurricane force winds, significant beach erosion and severe coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for much of the region. A track south of Cape May New Jersey to Washington DC means a moderate impact with strong to damaging winds especially at higher eleations and along the coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and still the threat for heavy rainfall over southern and western parts of the region.

With some more model consistency seen overnight, it is time to discuss some of the model tracks and what they mean for our region. Given this system will be large in size and severe in magnitude and likely carrying both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, there are several important items to note.

1.) With this system more than any other tropical system in recent times and even including Irene which had a large size and envelope from last year, do not focus on the center of Sandy. Sandy is likely to be a large storm well over 350 miles wide as it approaches the mid-atlantic and Northeast United States. There has been other precedents for such large wind envelopes. In November 2007, Post-Tropical Noel despite tracking several hundred miles offshore of Cape Cod brought hurricane force winds gusts and severe criteria sustained winds to that region with wind gusts to near severe criteria across Eastern and South Coastal Massachusetts.

2.) The latest track guidance has shifted a bit. There are a camp of reliable computer models that shifted northward overnight. Several models have a track that is further north and over the Long Island/New York City/Northern New Jersey area. If this track verifies, this would mean a major impact to the region. Another camp of models brings the track more towards the Delmarva/Southern New Jersey area. If it is north of Cape May New Jersey, major impacts are still likely but a track south of Cape May New Jersey to Washington DC would mean more moderate impacts. 

3.) Do not focus on whether Sandy remains at hurricane/tropical storm status or a post-tropical storm system. The resulting potential of wind damage, coastal flooding, and heavy rainfall will be the same regardless of its tropical status.

4.) Track model guidance is likely to shift more. It is possible a closer to Southern New England track could occur which would mean higher winds and worse conditions for the region. A further south track would lessen the impact but it would take a track south of Cape May New Jersey to lower the impact to a moderate impact and it would take a track south of Washington DC to a minor impact. This is due to the sheer size of the expected system.

The Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC, the VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net were active much of Wednesday and Thursday for Sandy’s impact on Jamaica and Eastern Cuba and up into the Central and Northwest Bahamas. WX4NHC and the Hurricane Watch Net was active today for impacts on the Bahamas. See their respective net links for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Sandy. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for storm force or tropical storm to hurricane force conditions as a precaution. NWS Taunton has posted a new Public Information Statement on Safety and Preparedness steps for Hurricane Sandy. That information can be seen via the link below:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_25_12_hurricane_sandy.txt

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely as early as late Sunday Night through potentially Tuesday. ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership.

Once again, Hurricane Sandy should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. NWS Taunton has issued a Marine Weather Statement for marine interests, that statement and the latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory information on Hurricane Sandy are listed below:

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

The next coordination message will likely be posted some time either Friday Evening or Saturday Morning pending further computer model data on the track of Sandy and significant updates to Sandy’s status as a tropical system from an intensity and transition to a hybrid system perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy moving Northwest away from the Bahamas. Impact on the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast now the focus. Sandy is still expected to become a large storm system off the US East Coast of either tropical nature or of hybrid (both tropical and non-tropical) nature with potential significant impacts to much of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area in the late Sunday Night through Tuesday timeframe. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Savannah River to Oregon Inlet North Carolina, Pamlico Sound, Florida East Coast from North of Flagler Beach to Fernandia Beach Florida, Florida Upper Keys from Ocean Reef to Criag Key and Florida Bay..
..Multiple reliable computer weather models depict a powerful storm system of large and severe nature taking aim on portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast. The potential exists for either a close pass from the storm resulting in strong to damaging winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding and isolated to scattered power outages or for a near direct hit to direct hit with damaging to hurricane force winds with widespread downed trees and wires and power outages, significant beach erosion and coastal storm surge flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for the region. Again, the timeframe for potential impact will be in the Sunday Night through Tuesday timeframe..
..Interests in Southern New England should continue monitoring the progress of Hurricane Sandy. The National Hurricane Center Advisories are now requesting interests along the entire US East Coast to closely monitor the progress of Sandy and the ‘cone of uncertainity’ on the track of Sandy is now covering much of Southern New England..
..In this coordination message, we will update the impacts based on the current reliable track solutions available at the time of issuance of this coordination message..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely as early as late Sunday Night through Tuesday..
..ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership..
..To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region..

Hurricane Sandy is moving away from the Bahamas on a Northwest Track. Sandy continues to expand with a wind radius now 275 miles. The storm will likely expand further and likely have a wind field greater than 350 miles wide. Sandy is then expected to move parallel but offshore of the US East Coast. Multiple computer models are depicting a scenario where Sandy, either as a tropical system or a hybrid/nor’easter system with both tropical and non-tropical characteristics tracks into either the northern mid-atlantic or Southern New England providing either a moderate to severe impact to the region. A scenario where Sandy moves out to sea is now off largely off the table.

Here is an update on the scenarios. A track of this storm at or north of Cape May New Jersey will mean major impact to Southern New England which would mean damaging to hurricane force winds, significant beach erosion and severe coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for much of the region. A track south of Cape May New Jersey to Washington DC means a moderate impact with strong to damaging winds especially at higher eleations and along the coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and still the threat for heavy rainfall over southern and western parts of the region.

With some more model consistency seen overnight, it is time to discuss some of the model tracks and what they mean for our region. Given this system will be large in size and severe in magnitude and likely carrying both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, there are several important items to note.

1.) With this system more than any other tropical system in recent times and even including Irene which had a large size and envelope from last year, do not focus on the center of Sandy. Sandy is likely to be a large storm well over 350 miles wide as it approaches the mid-atlantic and Northeast United States. There has been other precedents for such large wind envelopes. In November 2007, Post-Tropical Noel despite tracking several hundred miles offshore of Cape Cod brought hurricane force winds gusts and severe criteria sustained winds to that region with wind gusts to near severe criteria across Eastern and South Coastal Massachusetts.

2.) The latest track guidance has shifted a bit. There are a camp of reliable computer models that shifted northward overnight. Several models have a track that is further north and over the Long Island/New York City/Northern New Jersey area. If this track verifies, this would mean a major impact to the region. Another camp of models brings the track more towards the Delmarva/Southern New Jersey area. If it is north of Cape May New Jersey, major impacts are still likely but a track south of Cape May New Jersey to Washington DC would mean more moderate impacts. 

3.) Do not focus on whether Sandy remains at hurricane/tropical storm status or a post-tropical storm system. The resulting potential of wind damage, coastal flooding, and heavy rainfall will be the same regardless of its tropical status.

4.) Track model guidance is likely to shift more. It is possible a closer to Southern New England track could occur which would mean higher winds and worse conditions for the region. A further south track would lessen the impact but it would take a track south of Cape May New Jersey to lower the impact to a moderate impact and it would take a track south of Washington DC to a minor impact. This is due to the sheer size of the expected system.

The Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC, the VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net were active much of Wednesday and Thursday for Sandy’s impact on Jamaica and Eastern Cuba and up into the Central and Northwest Bahamas. WX4NHC and the Hurricane Watch Net was active today for impacts on the Bahamas. See their respective net links for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Sandy. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for storm force or tropical storm to hurricane force conditions as a precaution. NWS Taunton has posted a new Public Information Statement on Safety and Preparedness steps for Hurricane Sandy. That information can be seen via the link below:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_25_12_hurricane_sandy.txt

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely as early as late Sunday Night through potentially Tuesday. ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership.

Once again, Hurricane Sandy should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. NWS Taunton has issued a Marine Weather Statement for marine interests, that statement and the latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory information on Hurricane Sandy are listed below:

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

The next coordination message will likely be posted some time either Friday Evening or Saturday Morning pending further computer model data on the track of Sandy and significant updates to Sandy’s status as a tropical system from an intensity and transition to a hybrid system perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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