Hurricane Sandy Coordination Message #5

Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy taking aim on the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast. Preparedness measures in Southern New England need to be stepped up and we cannot emphasize enough to not focus on the track of the storm center to New Jersey or Sandy’s status as a tropical or post-tropical system as this will be a large and severe storm system with severe weather and damaging to hurricane force wind conditions occurring several hundred miles from the storm center and a track at or north of Cape May New Jersey means major to significant impact for Southern New England. Model trends have been shifting northward with time north of Cape May to as far north as Long Island and even the Southern New England coastline as well..
..Multiple reliable computer weather models depict a powerful storm system of large and severe nature taking aim on portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast with major/significant impact becoming more likely for Southern New England. A track north of Cape May New Jersey, which is becoming more likely, means damaging to hurricane force winds with widespread downed trees and wires and power outages, significant beach erosion and coastal storm surge flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for the region. A track south of Cape May New Jersey to Washington DC would result in strong to damaging winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding and isolated to scattered power outages. Again, the timeframe for potential impact will be in the Sunday Night through Tuesday timeframe..
..Interests in Southern New England should continue monitoring the progress of Hurricane Sandy. The National Hurricane Center Advisories are now requesting interests along the entire US East Coast to closely monitor the progress of Sandy and the ‘cone of uncertainity’ on the track of Sandy is now covering much of Southern New England..
..In this coordination message, we will update the impacts based on the current reliable track solutions available at the time of issuance of this coordination message..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely as early as late Sunday Night through Tuesday possibly extending into Wednesday..
..ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists..
..To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region..

Hurricane Sandy is now moving slowly northward and will continue northward. Sandy has a wind radius that is currently 275 miles wide. The storm will likely expand further and likely have a wind field greater than 350 miles wide. Sandy is then expected to move parallel but offshore of the US East Coast. Multiple computer models are depicting a scenario where Sandy, either as a tropical system or a hybrid/nor’easter system with both tropical and non-tropical characteristics tracks into either the northern mid-atlantic or Southern New England providing either a moderate to severe impact to the region.

Here is an update on the scenarios. A track of this storm at or north of Cape May New Jersey will mean major/significant impact to Southern New England which would mean damaging to hurricane force winds, significant beach erosion and severe coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for much of the region. A track south of Cape May New Jersey to Washington DC means a moderate impact with strong to damaging winds especially at higher eleations and along the coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and still the threat for heavy rainfall over southern and western parts of the region.

With some more model consistency seen overnight, it is time to discuss some of the model tracks and what they mean for our region. Given this system will be large in size and severe in magnitude and likely carrying both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, there are several important items to note.

1.) We cannot overemphasize that with this system more than any other tropical system in recent times and even including Irene which had a large size and envelope from last year, do not focus on the center of Sandy. Sandy is likely to be a large storm well over 350 miles wide as it approaches the mid-atlantic and Northeast United States. There has been other precedents for such large wind envelopes. In November 2007, Post-Tropical Noel despite tracking several hundred miles offshore of Cape Cod brought hurricane force winds gusts and severe criteria sustained winds to that region with wind gusts to near severe criteria across Eastern and South Coastal Massachusetts. A track at or north of Cape May New Jersey means major/significant impact to Southern New England.

2.) The latest track guidance continues to be over or just south of Long Island and even implying the coast of Southern New England at times. Even one of the reliable models that had a track to the Delmarva/Cape May New Jersey point is now further north into Central New Jersey. This is increasing confidence on a major/significant impact to Southern New England. There remains another camp of models brings the track more towards the Delmarva/Southern New Jersey area that still needs to be monitored but the overall consensus of models is a further north track over the course of today’s runs.

3.) Do not focus on whether Sandy remains at hurricane/tropical storm status or a post-tropical storm system. In fact, the reason a system that could potentially track into New Jersey can provide such a significant impact to southern New England is because it will become either a hybrid system of both tropical and non-tropical nature or a large system of non-tropical characteristics. This is why we cannot overemphasize the fact that a track even as far south as Cape May New Jersey means significant impact to Southern New England.

4.) Track model guidance is likely to shift more and the last several cycles are depicting a track closer to Southern New England track could occur which means higher winds and worse conditions for the region. A further south track would lessen the impact but it would take a track south of Cape May New Jersey to lower the impact to a moderate impact and it would take a track south of Washington DC to a minor impact. This is due to the sheer size of the expected system.

The Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC, the VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net were active much of Wednesday and Thursday for Sandy’s impact on Jamaica and Eastern Cuba and up into the Central and Northwest Bahamas. WX4NHC and the Hurricane Watch Net was active today for impacts on the Bahamas. See their respective net links for details:

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Sandy. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for storm force or tropical storm to hurricane force conditions as a precaution. NWS Taunton has posted a new Public Information Statement on Safety and Preparedness steps for Hurricane Sandy. That information can be seen via the link below:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_25_12_hurricane_sandy.txt

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely as early as late Sunday Night through potentially Tuesday. ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists.

Once again, Hurricane Sandy should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. NWS Taunton has issued a Marine Weather Statement for marine interests, that statement, the NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion and the latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory information on Hurricane Sandy are listed below:

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

The next coordination message will likely be posted some time either Saturday Morning or early Afternoon pending further computer model data on the track of Sandy and significant updates to Sandy’s status as a tropical system from an intensity and transition to a hybrid system perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy taking aim on the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast. Preparedness measures in Southern New England need to be stepped up and we cannot emphasize enough to not focus on the track of the storm center to New Jersey or Sandy’s status as a tropical or post-tropical system as this will be a large and severe storm system with severe weather and damaging to hurricane force wind conditions occurring several hundred miles from the storm center and a track at or north of Cape May New Jersey means major to significant impact for Southern New England. Model trends have been shifting northward with time north of Cape May to as far north as Long Island and even the Southern New England coastline as well..
..Multiple reliable computer weather models depict a powerful storm system of large and severe nature taking aim on portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast with major/significant impact becoming more likely for Southern New England. A track north of Cape May New Jersey, which is becoming more likely, means damaging to hurricane force winds with widespread downed trees and wires and power outages, significant beach erosion and coastal storm surge flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for the region. A track south of Cape May New Jersey to Washington DC would result in strong to damaging winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding and isolated to scattered power outages. Again, the timeframe for potential impact will be in the Sunday Night through Tuesday timeframe..
..Interests in Southern New England should continue monitoring the progress of Hurricane Sandy. The National Hurricane Center Advisories are now requesting interests along the entire US East Coast to closely monitor the progress of Sandy and the ‘cone of uncertainity’ on the track of Sandy is now covering much of Southern New England..
..In this coordination message, we will update the impacts based on the current reliable track solutions available at the time of issuance of this coordination message..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely as early as late Sunday Night through Tuesday possibly extending into Wednesday..
..ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists..
..To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region..

Hurricane Sandy is now moving slowly northward and will continue northward. Sandy has a wind radius that is currently 275 miles wide. The storm will likely expand further and likely have a wind field greater than 350 miles wide. Sandy is then expected to move parallel but offshore of the US East Coast. Multiple computer models are depicting a scenario where Sandy, either as a tropical system or a hybrid/nor’easter system with both tropical and non-tropical characteristics tracks into either the northern mid-atlantic or Southern New England providing either a moderate to severe impact to the region.

Here is an update on the scenarios. A track of this storm at or north of Cape May New Jersey will mean major/significant impact to Southern New England which would mean damaging to hurricane force winds, significant beach erosion and severe coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for much of the region. A track south of Cape May New Jersey to Washington DC means a moderate impact with strong to damaging winds especially at higher eleations and along the coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and still the threat for heavy rainfall over southern and western parts of the region.

With some more model consistency seen overnight, it is time to discuss some of the model tracks and what they mean for our region. Given this system will be large in size and severe in magnitude and likely carrying both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, there are several important items to note.

1.) We cannot overemphasize that with this system more than any other tropical system in recent times and even including Irene which had a large size and envelope from last year, do not focus on the center of Sandy. Sandy is likely to be a large storm well over 350 miles wide as it approaches the mid-atlantic and Northeast United States. There has been other precedents for such large wind envelopes. In November 2007, Post-Tropical Noel despite tracking several hundred miles offshore of Cape Cod brought hurricane force winds gusts and severe criteria sustained winds to that region with wind gusts to near severe criteria across Eastern and South Coastal Massachusetts. A track at or north of Cape May New Jersey means major/significant impact to Southern New England.

2.) The latest track guidance continues to be over or just south of Long Island and even implying the coast of Southern New England at times. Even one of the reliable models that had a track to the Delmarva/Cape May New Jersey point is now further north into Central New Jersey. This is increasing confidence on a major/significant impact to Southern New England. There remains another camp of models brings the track more towards the Delmarva/Southern New Jersey area that still needs to be monitored but the overall consensus of models is a further north track over the course of today’s runs.

3.) Do not focus on whether Sandy remains at hurricane/tropical storm status or a post-tropical storm system. In fact, the reason a system that could potentially track into New Jersey can provide such a significant impact to southern New England is because it will become either a hybrid system of both tropical and non-tropical nature or a large system of non-tropical characteristics. This is why we cannot overemphasize the fact that a track even as far south as Cape May New Jersey means significant impact to Southern New England.

4.) Track model guidance is likely to shift more and the last several cycles are depicting a track closer to Southern New England track could occur which means higher winds and worse conditions for the region. A further south track would lessen the impact but it would take a track south of Cape May New Jersey to lower the impact to a moderate impact and it would take a track south of Washington DC to a minor impact. This is due to the sheer size of the expected system.

The Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC, the VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net were active much of Wednesday and Thursday for Sandy’s impact on Jamaica and Eastern Cuba and up into the Central and Northwest Bahamas. WX4NHC and the Hurricane Watch Net was active today for impacts on the Bahamas. See their respective net links for details:

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Sandy. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for storm force or tropical storm to hurricane force conditions as a precaution. NWS Taunton has posted a new Public Information Statement on Safety and Preparedness steps for Hurricane Sandy. That information can be seen via the link below:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_25_12_hurricane_sandy.txt

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely as early as late Sunday Night through potentially Tuesday. ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists.

Once again, Hurricane Sandy should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. NWS Taunton has issued a Marine Weather Statement for marine interests, that statement, the NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion and the latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory information on Hurricane Sandy are listed below:

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

The next coordination message will likely be posted some time either Saturday Morning or early Afternoon pending further computer model data on the track of Sandy and significant updates to Sandy’s status as a tropical system from an intensity and transition to a hybrid system perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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