Hurricane Sandy Coordination Message #6

Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy taking aim on the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast. Preparedness measures in Southern New England need to be completed by late Sunday Night to worse case Monday Morning. We need to continue to emphasize the fact that you should not focus on the track of the storm center to New Jersey or Sandy’s status as a tropical or post-tropical system as this will be a large and severe storm system with severe weather and damaging to hurricane force wind conditions occurring several hundred miles from the storm center and a track at or north of Cape May New Jersey means major to significant impact for Southern New England. Model trends have been shifting northward with time north of Cape May to as far north as Long Island..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon for East Coastal and South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island for several high tide cycles of coastal flooding..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area from Monday Morning to late Monday Night..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for Cheshire County New Hampshire, all of Northern Connecticut, and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely beginning at 5 AM ET Monday and lasting through Tuesday Afternoon..
..ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists. Connecticut ARES reports that they have raised their activation level to a level-2 standby effective at 0800 EDT Sunday October 28th, 2012 and Western Massachusetts ARES has been placed on standby..
..To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region. WX4NHC plans to activate at 9 AM ET Monday Morning for the duration of this event..

Hurricane Sandy is now moving northeastward. This motion will continue but eventually turn back to the North and Northwest as Sandy is blocked by high pressure over the Greenland area. Sandy’s wind field has widened significantly. Sandy now has a wind radius that is currently 520 miles wide. That wind field could expand even further with time. This is why a track of the storm into New Jersey will still mean significant/major impacts to Southern New England. The wind field is so wide, it will cover much of the Mid-Atlantic and the South-Central portions of New York and New England. For these reasons, we urge preparedness measures for the potential of extended power outages. At the coast, several cycles of storm surge flooding will likely cause significant issues along coastal shore roads and possibly to structures along the water. For the heavy rainfall threat, this will be worst over Western New England.

The following is a model analysis and breakdown of the various severe weather threats:

Weather Model Anaylsis:
Models appear to be shifting toward a solution that will track the system off our coastline by approximately 150 miles with a gradual bend back to the west with landfall somewhere along the Central New Jersey coastline. Three reliable computer models are in agreement with that track with one other reliable model bringins the storm to southern New Jersey. Most reliable model guidance brings this powerful, large storm system north of Cape May New Jersey which is the point that has been defined as bringing significant impact to Southern New England. Therefore, a track to New Jersey still means a significant impact to Southern New England because of the very large wind field.

Wind Threat:
A High Wind Watch is in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area from Monday Morning to Monday Night. Widespread Damaging winds are expected meaning the potential for widespread tree and wire damage and extended power outages. Minor structural damage is possible. Sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH and the potential for hurricane force wind gusts are possible, especially across portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Eastern Massachusetts. Across the remainder of the NWS Taunton Coverage area, sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and possibly a few higher wind gusts especially in higher elevations of the interior.

Coastal Flood Threat:
Several high tide cycles of coastal flooding are likely across East and South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island and a Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for these areas for these areas from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon. Storm surge flooding along the south coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island will likely be most significant around the Monday Evening high tide. Across the east coast of Massachusetts, the worst of the coastal flooding will occur during the midday Monday high tide cycle for East Coastal Massachusetts. Storm surge of 3-5 feet is possible with isolated higher storm surge in Narragasett Bay where major coastal flooding is possible.

River/Stream/Urban Flood Threat:
The highest rainfall totals of 1.5-3″ with isolated 3-5″ amounts will occur across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. A Flood Watch is in effect for these areas for rivers, streams and urban areas from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon. Across the remainder of the NWS Taunton coverage area, rain will be more showery and squally in nature meaning brief urban flood issues but less of a threat for river and stream flooding and 1-2″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts are possible in the remainder of the NWS Taunton coverage area.

To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region. The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net will also be active. WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center, plans to start operations at 9 AM Monday Morning currently. The links for the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center and the hurricane nets appear below:

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Sandy. People should working on their preparedness measures and completing the preparedness measures by late Sunday Night or worse case Monday Morning. NWS Taunton has posted a new Public Information Statement on Safety and Preparedness steps for Hurricane Sandy. That information can be seen via the link below:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_25_12_hurricane_sandy.txt

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely beginning at 5 AM ET Monday and lasting through Tuesday Afternoon. ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists. Connecticut ARES reports that they have raised their activation level to a level-2 standby effective at 0800 EDT Sunday October 28th, 2012 and Western Massachusetts ARES has been placed on standby.

Please continue to prepare and keep your situational awareness high for Hurricane Sandy. The following is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Marine Weather Statement, Area Forecast Discussion and Hazardous Weather Outlook along with the National Hurricane Center Tropical Advisory pacakage:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

The next coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Sunday Morning. A special reporting criteria message will be posted either late tonight or Sunday Morning.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy taking aim on the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast. Preparedness measures in Southern New England need to be completed by late Sunday Night to worse case Monday Morning. We need to continue to emphasize the fact that you should not focus on the track of the storm center to New Jersey or Sandy’s status as a tropical or post-tropical system as this will be a large and severe storm system with severe weather and damaging to hurricane force wind conditions occurring several hundred miles from the storm center and a track at or north of Cape May New Jersey means major to significant impact for Southern New England. Model trends have been shifting northward with time north of Cape May to as far north as Long Island..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon for East Coastal and South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island for several high tide cycles of coastal flooding..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area from Monday Morning to late Monday Night..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for Cheshire County New Hampshire, all of Northern Connecticut, and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely beginning at 5 AM ET Monday and lasting through Tuesday Afternoon..
..ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists. Connecticut ARES reports that they have raised their activation level to a level-2 standby effective at 0800 EDT Sunday October 28th, 2012 and Western Massachusetts ARES has been placed on standby..
..To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region. WX4NHC plans to activate at 9 AM ET Monday Morning for the duration of this event..

Hurricane Sandy is now moving northeastward. This motion will continue but eventually turn back to the North and Northwest as Sandy is blocked by high pressure over the Greenland area. Sandy’s wind field has widened significantly. Sandy now has a wind radius that is currently 520 miles wide. That wind field could expand even further with time. This is why a track of the storm into New Jersey will still mean significant/major impacts to Southern New England. The wind field is so wide, it will cover much of the Mid-Atlantic and the South-Central portions of New York and New England. For these reasons, we urge preparedness measures for the potential of extended power outages. At the coast, several cycles of storm surge flooding will likely cause significant issues along coastal shore roads and possibly to structures along the water. For the heavy rainfall threat, this will be worst over Western New England.

The following is a model analysis and breakdown of the various severe weather threats:

Weather Model Anaylsis:
Models appear to be shifting toward a solution that will track the system off our coastline by approximately 150 miles with a gradual bend back to the west with landfall somewhere along the Central New Jersey coastline. Three reliable computer models are in agreement with that track with one other reliable model bringins the storm to southern New Jersey. Most reliable model guidance brings this powerful, large storm system north of Cape May New Jersey which is the point that has been defined as bringing significant impact to Southern New England. Therefore, a track to New Jersey still means a significant impact to Southern New England because of the very large wind field.

Wind Threat:
A High Wind Watch is in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area from Monday Morning to Monday Night. Widespread Damaging winds are expected meaning the potential for widespread tree and wire damage and extended power outages. Minor structural damage is possible. Sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH and the potential for hurricane force wind gusts are possible, especially across portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Eastern Massachusetts. Across the remainder of the NWS Taunton Coverage area, sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and possibly a few higher wind gusts especially in higher elevations of the interior.

Coastal Flood Threat:
Several high tide cycles of coastal flooding are likely across East and South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island and a Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for these areas for these areas from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon. Storm surge flooding along the south coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island will likely be most significant around the Monday Evening high tide. Across the east coast of Massachusetts, the worst of the coastal flooding will occur during the midday Monday high tide cycle for East Coastal Massachusetts. Storm surge of 3-5 feet is possible with isolated higher storm surge in Narragasett Bay where major coastal flooding is possible.

River/Stream/Urban Flood Threat:
The highest rainfall totals of 1.5-3″ with isolated 3-5″ amounts will occur across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. A Flood Watch is in effect for these areas for rivers, streams and urban areas from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon. Across the remainder of the NWS Taunton coverage area, rain will be more showery and squally in nature meaning brief urban flood issues but less of a threat for river and stream flooding and 1-2″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts are possible in the remainder of the NWS Taunton coverage area.

To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region. The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net will also be active. WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center, plans to start operations at 9 AM Monday Morning currently. The links for the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center and the hurricane nets appear below:

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Sandy. People should working on their preparedness measures and completing the preparedness measures by late Sunday Night or worse case Monday Morning. NWS Taunton has posted a new Public Information Statement on Safety and Preparedness steps for Hurricane Sandy. That information can be seen via the link below:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_25_12_hurricane_sandy.txt

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely beginning at 5 AM ET Monday and lasting through Tuesday Afternoon. ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists. Connecticut ARES reports that they have raised their activation level to a level-2 standby effective at 0800 EDT Sunday October 28th, 2012 and Western Massachusetts ARES has been placed on standby.

Please continue to prepare and keep your situational awareness high for Hurricane Sandy. The following is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Marine Weather Statement, Area Forecast Discussion and Hazardous Weather Outlook along with the National Hurricane Center Tropical Advisory pacakage:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

The next coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Sunday Morning. A special reporting criteria message will be posted either late tonight or Sunday Morning.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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