Storm Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 11/7/12-Thursday 11/8/12 Nor’easter Potential

Hello to all..

..Strong Nor’easter to bring heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds, and minor coastal flooding to much of Southern New England and there is even the threat of wet snowfall to portions of the far interior of Southern New England Wednesday into Thursday Afternoon..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for all of Rhode Island, Essex, Suffolk, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket counties of Massachusetts from Wednesday Morning through late Wednesday Night for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH possible..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Wednesday possibly extending into Thursday Morning..

A strong nor’easter/coastal storm will start to organize on Tuesday and begin impacting the region on Wednesday and will last into Thursday Afternoon. There are several impacts that will be outlined in this coordination message and updated going forward:

Strong to Damaging Wind Threat:
Computer models show a strong wind field with this system. There is some question as to how much of the winds will mix down to the surface but its quite likely that winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and possibly higher gusts will occur across portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. This will be dependent upon how well the strongest winds will mix down to the surface. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for all of Rhode Island, Essex, Suffolk, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket counites of Massachusetts from Wednesday Morning through late Wednesday Night for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH possible. Across areas outside of the High Wind Watch area, there is the potential for Wind Advisory criteria winds with sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 45-50 MPH possible. These winds will be sufficient to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages.

Rainfall:
Heavy rainfall of 1-3″ is possible. The axis of heaviest rainfall will depend on the track of the system but current model trends indicate that portions of Eastern Masachusetts and Rhode Island could potentially have the heaviest rainfall. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding. Currently, the threat for river/stream flooding is low.

Wet Snowfall Potential:
Wet snow could occur across portions of Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts. Light to moderate snowfall amounts are possible. A track a bit further offshore could let the rain/snow line drift a bit more eastward. If enough wet snow accumulates with the system, this could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages. Snow accumulations and the areas affected with wet snowfall, if any, will be better defined in future forecasts.

Coastal Flooding:
Minor coastal flooding will be possible at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts for the Thursday Morning high tide with the possibility of pockets of moderate coastal flooding. The threat looks confined to the East Coast of Massachusetts but a track closer to the coast could cause more of a risk of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion to portions of South Coastal Massachusetts. This will be montiored in future computer model runs.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Wednesday lasting through early Thursday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement, Marine Weather Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Strong Nor’easter to bring heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds, and minor coastal flooding to much of Southern New England and there is even the threat of wet snowfall to portions of the far interior of Southern New England Wednesday into Thursday Afternoon..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for all of Rhode Island, Essex, Suffolk, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket counties of Massachusetts from Wednesday Morning through late Wednesday Night for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH possible..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Wednesday possibly extending into Thursday Morning..

A strong nor’easter/coastal storm will start to organize on Tuesday and begin impacting the region on Wednesday and will last into Thursday Afternoon. There are several impacts that will be outlined in this coordination message and updated going forward:

Strong to Damaging Wind Threat:
Computer models show a strong wind field with this system. There is some question as to how much of the winds will mix down to the surface but its quite likely that winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and possibly higher gusts will occur across portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. This will be dependent upon how well the strongest winds will mix down to the surface. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for all of Rhode Island, Essex, Suffolk, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket counites of Massachusetts from Wednesday Morning through late Wednesday Night for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH possible. Across areas outside of the High Wind Watch area, there is the potential for Wind Advisory criteria winds with sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 45-50 MPH possible. These winds will be sufficient to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages.

Rainfall:
Heavy rainfall of 1-3″ is possible. The axis of heaviest rainfall will depend on the track of the system but current model trends indicate that portions of Eastern Masachusetts and Rhode Island could potentially have the heaviest rainfall. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding. Currently, the threat for river/stream flooding is low.

Wet Snowfall Potential:
Wet snow could occur across portions of Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts. Light to moderate snowfall amounts are possible. A track a bit further offshore could let the rain/snow line drift a bit more eastward. If enough wet snow accumulates with the system, this could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages. Snow accumulations and the areas affected with wet snowfall, if any, will be better defined in future forecasts.

Coastal Flooding:
Minor coastal flooding will be possible at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts for the Thursday Morning high tide with the possibility of pockets of moderate coastal flooding. The threat looks confined to the East Coast of Massachusetts but a track closer to the coast could cause more of a risk of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion to portions of South Coastal Massachusetts. This will be montiored in future computer model runs.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Wednesday lasting through early Thursday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement, Marine Weather Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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