Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 11/7/12 to Thursday 11/8/12 Strong Nor’easter Potential

Hello to all..

..Strong Nor’easter will affect the region Wednesday into Thursday Morning with strong to damaging winds, minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, heavy rainfall and even some light snowfall in some locations..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 6 AM Wednesday to 4 AM Thursday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands with a High Wind Warning in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island including Block Island and South Coastal Massachusetts from 2 PM Wednesday to 4 AM Thursday..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Windham County Connecticut, the remainder of Rhode Island and Eastern Norfolk, Northern Bristol, Plymouth, Suffolk and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Masachusetts from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time later Wednesday Morning through early Thursday Morning..

A strong nor’easter/coastal storm is organizing and will impact the region on Wednesday and will last into Thursday Afternoon. Despite the close time range, weather models are a little more divergent than normal at this time range on the impacts of this system. An update on the impacts are outlined in this coordination message by section:

Strong to Damaging Wind Threat:
Computer models continue to show a strong wind field with this system. There is some question as to how much of the winds will mix down to the surface and it currently appears that South Coastal locations will experience the strongest winds followed by East Coastal Massachusetts, portion of interior Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and NortheasT Connecticut. A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 6 AM Wednesday to 4 AM Thursday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands with a High Wind Warning in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island including Block Island and South Coastal Massachusetts from 2 PM Wednesday to 4 AM Thursday. In the High Wind Warning area sustained winds of 25-40 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH are likely. This will bring down scattered trees and wires resulting in scattered power outages. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Windham County Connecticut, the remainder of Rhode Island and Eastern Norfolk, Northern Bristol, Plymouth, Suffolk and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Masachusetts from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH likely. These winds will bring down isolated to scattered trees and wires resulting in isolated to scattered power outages.

Rainfall:
Heavy rainfall of 1-3″ remains possible. The axis of heaviest rainfall will depend on the track of the system but current model trends indicate that portions of Eastern Masachusetts and Rhode Island, particularly southeastern locations could potentially have the heaviest rainfall. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding. Currently, the threat for river/stream flooding is low.

Wet Snowfall Potential:
The potential for light accumulations of wet snow has changed since the last update. There is potential for some light wet snow accumulations across much of Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut particularly overnight Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning. Preciptation totals will be less in the extreme western locations but will be a bit heavier in the central interior. Overall, snow totals are expected to be as little as a coating to possibly as much as 2-3 inches of wet snow. If enough wet snow accumulates with the system or more wet snow occurs than currently expected, this could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages. This will be monitored closely and snowfall total ranges will be fine tuned with the next coordination message update.

Coastal Flooding:
Minor coastal flooding will be possible at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts for the Thursday Morning high tide with the possibility of pockets of moderate coastal flooding. The only notable change here is that confidence has increased that east coastal locations will be the areas primarly impacted by coastal flooding. This will continue to be monitored in future computer model runs.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely by late Wednesday Wednesday lasting through early Thursday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Wednesday. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Strong Nor’easter will affect the region Wednesday into Thursday Morning with strong to damaging winds, minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, heavy rainfall and even some light snowfall in some locations..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 6 AM Wednesday to 4 AM Thursday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands with a High Wind Warning in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island including Block Island and South Coastal Massachusetts from 2 PM Wednesday to 4 AM Thursday..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Windham County Connecticut, the remainder of Rhode Island and Eastern Norfolk, Northern Bristol, Plymouth, Suffolk and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Masachusetts from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time later Wednesday Morning through early Thursday Morning..

A strong nor’easter/coastal storm is organizing and will impact the region on Wednesday and will last into Thursday Afternoon. Despite the close time range, weather models are a little more divergent than normal at this time range on the impacts of this system. An update on the impacts are outlined in this coordination message by section:

Strong to Damaging Wind Threat:
Computer models continue to show a strong wind field with this system. There is some question as to how much of the winds will mix down to the surface and it currently appears that South Coastal locations will experience the strongest winds followed by East Coastal Massachusetts, portion of interior Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and NortheasT Connecticut. A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 6 AM Wednesday to 4 AM Thursday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands with a High Wind Warning in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island including Block Island and South Coastal Massachusetts from 2 PM Wednesday to 4 AM Thursday. In the High Wind Warning area sustained winds of 25-40 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH are likely. This will bring down scattered trees and wires resulting in scattered power outages. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Windham County Connecticut, the remainder of Rhode Island and Eastern Norfolk, Northern Bristol, Plymouth, Suffolk and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Masachusetts from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH likely. These winds will bring down isolated to scattered trees and wires resulting in isolated to scattered power outages.

Rainfall:
Heavy rainfall of 1-3″ remains possible. The axis of heaviest rainfall will depend on the track of the system but current model trends indicate that portions of Eastern Masachusetts and Rhode Island, particularly southeastern locations could potentially have the heaviest rainfall. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding. Currently, the threat for river/stream flooding is low.

Wet Snowfall Potential:
The potential for light accumulations of wet snow has changed since the last update. There is potential for some light wet snow accumulations across much of Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut particularly overnight Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning. Preciptation totals will be less in the extreme western locations but will be a bit heavier in the central interior. Overall, snow totals are expected to be as little as a coating to possibly as much as 2-3 inches of wet snow. If enough wet snow accumulates with the system or more wet snow occurs than currently expected, this could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages. This will be monitored closely and snowfall total ranges will be fine tuned with the next coordination message update.

Coastal Flooding:
Minor coastal flooding will be possible at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts for the Thursday Morning high tide with the possibility of pockets of moderate coastal flooding. The only notable change here is that confidence has increased that east coastal locations will be the areas primarly impacted by coastal flooding. This will continue to be monitored in future computer model runs.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely by late Wednesday Wednesday lasting through early Thursday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Wednesday. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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