Storm Coordination Message #3 – Wednesday 11/7/12 to Thursday 11/8/12 Strong Nor’easter Potential

Hello to all..

..Strong Nor’easter taking aim on Southern New England Wednesday into Thursday Morning with strong to damaging winds, minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, heavy rainfall and even some light snow and ice accumulation in some locations..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect through 1 AM Thursday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands with a High Wind Warning in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island including Block Island and South Coastal Massachusetts from 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM Thursday..
..A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Windham County Connecticut, the remainder of Rhode Island and Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Essex, Northern Bristol, Plymouth, Suffolk and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Masachusetts through 6 AM Thursday..
..A Wind Advisory has now been issued for Hartford and Tolland counties of Connecticut, Worcester, Western Essex, Western Norfolk and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts through 6 AM Thursday..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Southern New Hampshire and Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from 2 PM this afternoon through 7 AM Thursday Morning for a mixture of snow, freezing rain, and rain with potential snow accumulations of 1-4″ with one-tenth of an inch of ice expected..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island from 11 AM to 2 PM Wednesday..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts from 3 PM-8 PM Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time later Wednesday Morning through early Thursday Morning..

A strong nor’easter/coastal storm is organizing and will impact the region today through Thursday Morning. Models appear to be in better agreement on this system and this has resulted in additional advisory issuances for the region. An update on the impacts are outlined in this coordination message by section:

Strong to Damaging Wind Threat:
Computer models continue to show a strong wind field with this system and indicate winds of advisory level reaching further inland across Southern New England. It also still appears that South Coastal locations will experience the strongest winds followed by East Coastal Massachusetts, portion of interior Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Northeast Connecticut. A High Wind Warning is now in effect through 1 AM Thursday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands with a High Wind Warning in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island including Block Island and South Coastal Massachusetts from 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM Thursday. In the High Wind Warning area sustained winds of 25-40 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH are likely. This will bring down scattered trees and wires resulting in scattered power outages.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Windham County Connecticut, the remainder of Rhode Island and Eastern Norfolk, Northern Bristol, Plymouth, Suffolk and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Masachusetts through 6 AM Thursday and has been expanded to include Hartford and Tolland counties of Connecticut, Worcester, Western Essex, Western Norfolk and Northern Middlesex Counties for sustained winds of 15-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH likely. These winds will bring down isolated to scattered trees and wires resulting in isolated to scattered power outages.

Rainfall:
Heavy rainfall of 1-3″ remains possible. The axis of heaviest rainfall appears to be across portions of Eastern Masachusetts and Rhode Island with southeast locations potentially having the heaviest rainfall. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding. Currently, the threat for river/stream flooding is low.

Wet Snowfall Potential:
Snow and ice amounts have increased a bit more for western portions of the region since the last update. A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Southern New Hampshire and Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from 2 PM this afternoon through 7 AM Thursday Morning for a mixture of snow, freezing rain, and rain with potential snow accumulations of 1-4″ with one-tenth of an inch of ice expected. If enough wet snow and ice accumulates with the system or more wet snow and ice occurs than currently expected, this could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages. This will be monitored closely throughout this storm. In areas outside of the advisory area from the I-495 to I-95 corridor, there could be some brief mixing with wet snow, sleet or freezing rain but little to no accumulation is expected. East and south of the I-95 corridor, no frozen precipitation is expected currently.

Coastal Flooding:
Minor coastal flooding with the possibility of areas of low-end moderate coastal flooding are possible during the Wednesday Afternoon high tide cycle. East Coastal Massachusetts remains at most risk for minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding but the south coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island particularly areas hard hit by Hurricane Sandy, may also see some minor coastal flooding. Coastal Flood Advisories are now in effect for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island from 11 AM to 2 PM Wednesday and for East Coastal Massachusetts from 3 PM-8 PM Wednesday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely by late Wednesday Morning lasting through early Thursday Morning. This will be the last complete coordination message on this storm as we move into operations mode. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Winter Weather Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Strong Nor’easter taking aim on Southern New England Wednesday into Thursday Morning with strong to damaging winds, minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, heavy rainfall and even some light snow and ice accumulation in some locations..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect through 1 AM Thursday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands with a High Wind Warning in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island including Block Island and South Coastal Massachusetts from 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM Thursday..
..A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Windham County Connecticut, the remainder of Rhode Island and Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Essex, Northern Bristol, Plymouth, Suffolk and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Masachusetts through 6 AM Thursday..
..A Wind Advisory has now been issued for Hartford and Tolland counties of Connecticut, Worcester, Western Essex, Western Norfolk and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts through 6 AM Thursday..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Southern New Hampshire and Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from 2 PM this afternoon through 7 AM Thursday Morning for a mixture of snow, freezing rain, and rain with potential snow accumulations of 1-4″ with one-tenth of an inch of ice expected..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island from 11 AM to 2 PM Wednesday..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts from 3 PM-8 PM Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time later Wednesday Morning through early Thursday Morning..

A strong nor’easter/coastal storm is organizing and will impact the region today through Thursday Morning. Models appear to be in better agreement on this system and this has resulted in additional advisory issuances for the region. An update on the impacts are outlined in this coordination message by section:

Strong to Damaging Wind Threat:
Computer models continue to show a strong wind field with this system and indicate winds of advisory level reaching further inland across Southern New England. It also still appears that South Coastal locations will experience the strongest winds followed by East Coastal Massachusetts, portion of interior Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Northeast Connecticut. A High Wind Warning is now in effect through 1 AM Thursday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands with a High Wind Warning in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island including Block Island and South Coastal Massachusetts from 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM Thursday. In the High Wind Warning area sustained winds of 25-40 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH are likely. This will bring down scattered trees and wires resulting in scattered power outages.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Windham County Connecticut, the remainder of Rhode Island and Eastern Norfolk, Northern Bristol, Plymouth, Suffolk and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Masachusetts through 6 AM Thursday and has been expanded to include Hartford and Tolland counties of Connecticut, Worcester, Western Essex, Western Norfolk and Northern Middlesex Counties for sustained winds of 15-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH likely. These winds will bring down isolated to scattered trees and wires resulting in isolated to scattered power outages.

Rainfall:
Heavy rainfall of 1-3″ remains possible. The axis of heaviest rainfall appears to be across portions of Eastern Masachusetts and Rhode Island with southeast locations potentially having the heaviest rainfall. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding. Currently, the threat for river/stream flooding is low.

Wet Snowfall Potential:
Snow and ice amounts have increased a bit more for western portions of the region since the last update. A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Southern New Hampshire and Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from 2 PM this afternoon through 7 AM Thursday Morning for a mixture of snow, freezing rain, and rain with potential snow accumulations of 1-4″ with one-tenth of an inch of ice expected. If enough wet snow and ice accumulates with the system or more wet snow and ice occurs than currently expected, this could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages. This will be monitored closely throughout this storm. In areas outside of the advisory area from the I-495 to I-95 corridor, there could be some brief mixing with wet snow, sleet or freezing rain but little to no accumulation is expected. East and south of the I-95 corridor, no frozen precipitation is expected currently.

Coastal Flooding:
Minor coastal flooding with the possibility of areas of low-end moderate coastal flooding are possible during the Wednesday Afternoon high tide cycle. East Coastal Massachusetts remains at most risk for minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding but the south coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island particularly areas hard hit by Hurricane Sandy, may also see some minor coastal flooding. Coastal Flood Advisories are now in effect for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island from 11 AM to 2 PM Wednesday and for East Coastal Massachusetts from 3 PM-8 PM Wednesday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely by late Wednesday Morning lasting through early Thursday Morning. This will be the last complete coordination message on this storm as we move into operations mode. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Winter Weather Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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