Storm Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 12/29/12-Sunday 12/30/12 Storm Event

Hello to all..

..Another Winter Storm Taking Aim on Southern New England..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Saturday Morning through Sunday Morning for Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island except for Block Island for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM Sunday for Northern Connecticut, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Essex, Middlesex, and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for 3-5″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible across the Metro Boston area and East Coastal Massachusetts..
..Block Island RI, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket Island may see 1-3″ of snow from this storm system as precipitation is expected to change over to rain and be the predominant form of precipitation over this area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible for this storm while SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for snowfall measurements and any change in precipitation type during the storm. Overnight operations are unlikely since this does not look to be a damaging storm system but this will be monitored..

Over the past several days, computer weather models have been struggling with a track of a storm system for this weekend. There is now better agreement among the models that a storm will impact the region but there are still some uncertainities that are bit higher than normal at this short time range with this winter storm system. A low pressure system will emerge out off of the Southern Atlantic coast and begin to intensify offshore. At this time, some of the intensification affects will be felt over portions of Southern New England but not the full intensification period due to the speed of the system and the timing of the intensification process. Therefore, at this time, the storm is expected to bring a plowable snowfall to much of the region with a moderate snowstorm likely but if this process or timing were to change it could result in a heavier or lighter snowfall and this is something the models now appear to be in better agreement on but will bear watching as the storm moves into the region.

A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for all of mainland Rhode Island, Southern Worcester, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth counties of Massachusetts for Saturday Morning to Sunday Morning. Snow, heavy at times is expected with the heaviest precipitation falling Saturday Night ending around or before sunrise Sunday Morning. Total snowfall of 4-8″ are expected with isolated higher amounts possible. The higher amounts may be just inland of the east and south coasts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island where as the snow is expected to be heavier and wetter at the coast with some potential of rain mixing in especially close to the Cape Cod Canal area. If no mixing occurs, higher amounts of snowfall would also be possible in the east and south coastal Massachusetts areas and this will need monitoring during the storm event and in future model runs.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM Sunday for Northern Connecticut, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Essex, Middlesex, and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for 3-5″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible across the Metro Boston area and East Coastal Massachusetts. For the Northern Connecticut and Massachusetts portions of the Winter Weather Advisory area, a few inches of snow is expected and this is a high confidence expectation. For the area from Metro Boston to the North Shore, this is also high confidence but a slightly closer storm track or ocean enhancement may lead to higher amounts of snowfall. For Barnstable County/Cape Cod, this will depend on the precipitation type. The current forecast has mixing with and possibly a change to rain in this area. If precipitation were to remain all snow, much higher snowfall amounts would be possible and this will need to be monitored during the storm event and in future model runs.

Block Island RI, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket Island may see 1-3″ of snow from this storm system as precipitation is expected to change over to rain and be the predominant form of precipitation over this area. This will need to be monitored in case precipitation holds on as snow and allow for additional accumulations than currently expected depending on the track of the storm and amount of cold air available.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible for this storm while SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for snowfall measurements and any change in precipitation type during the storm. Overnight operations are unlikely since this does not look to be a damaging storm system but this will be monitored. The next coordination message will be posted by Noon Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Snowfall Map, and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Another Winter Storm Taking Aim on Southern New England..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Saturday Morning through Sunday Morning for Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island except for Block Island for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM Sunday for Northern Connecticut, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Essex, Middlesex, and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for 3-5″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible across the Metro Boston area and East Coastal Massachusetts..
..Block Island RI, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket Island may see 1-3″ of snow from this storm system as precipitation is expected to change over to rain and be the predominant form of precipitation over this area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible for this storm while SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for snowfall measurements and any change in precipitation type during the storm. Overnight operations are unlikely since this does not look to be a damaging storm system but this will be monitored..

Over the past several days, computer weather models have been struggling with a track of a storm system for this weekend. There is now better agreement among the models that a storm will impact the region but there are still some uncertainities that are bit higher than normal at this short time range with this winter storm system. A low pressure system will emerge out off of the Southern Atlantic coast and begin to intensify offshore. At this time, some of the intensification affects will be felt over portions of Southern New England but not the full intensification period due to the speed of the system and the timing of the intensification process. Therefore, at this time, the storm is expected to bring a plowable snowfall to much of the region with a moderate snowstorm likely but if this process or timing were to change it could result in a heavier or lighter snowfall and this is something the models now appear to be in better agreement on but will bear watching as the storm moves into the region.

A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for all of mainland Rhode Island, Southern Worcester, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth counties of Massachusetts for Saturday Morning to Sunday Morning. Snow, heavy at times is expected with the heaviest precipitation falling Saturday Night ending around or before sunrise Sunday Morning. Total snowfall of 4-8″ are expected with isolated higher amounts possible. The higher amounts may be just inland of the east and south coasts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island where as the snow is expected to be heavier and wetter at the coast with some potential of rain mixing in especially close to the Cape Cod Canal area. If no mixing occurs, higher amounts of snowfall would also be possible in the east and south coastal Massachusetts areas and this will need monitoring during the storm event and in future model runs.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM Sunday for Northern Connecticut, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Essex, Middlesex, and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for 3-5″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible across the Metro Boston area and East Coastal Massachusetts. For the Northern Connecticut and Massachusetts portions of the Winter Weather Advisory area, a few inches of snow is expected and this is a high confidence expectation. For the area from Metro Boston to the North Shore, this is also high confidence but a slightly closer storm track or ocean enhancement may lead to higher amounts of snowfall. For Barnstable County/Cape Cod, this will depend on the precipitation type. The current forecast has mixing with and possibly a change to rain in this area. If precipitation were to remain all snow, much higher snowfall amounts would be possible and this will need to be monitored during the storm event and in future model runs.

Block Island RI, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket Island may see 1-3″ of snow from this storm system as precipitation is expected to change over to rain and be the predominant form of precipitation over this area. This will need to be monitored in case precipitation holds on as snow and allow for additional accumulations than currently expected depending on the track of the storm and amount of cold air available.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible for this storm while SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for snowfall measurements and any change in precipitation type during the storm. Overnight operations are unlikely since this does not look to be a damaging storm system but this will be monitored. The next coordination message will be posted by Noon Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Snowfall Map, and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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