Storm Coordination Message #3 – Wednesday 2/27/13-Thursday Morning 2/28/13 Potential Storm Event

Hello to all..

..Winter Storm remains on track for late Tuesday Night through early Thursday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 1 AM Wednesday to 10 AM Thursday for Cheshire and Western and Central Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire for 4-8 inches with isolated higher amounts possible in the higher terrain. The snow is expected to be heavy and wet and may result in scattered tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from late Tuesday Night through Thursday Morning for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire, Western Hampden, and Northern Worcester Counties for 4-8 Inches of snow along with around one-tenth inch of ice with isolated higher amounts of snow possible in the higher terrain. The snow is expected to be a heavy wet snow that may cause scattered tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday for Eastern Franklin and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachuetts and A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Eastern Hillsborough County New Hampshire for 2-4″ of snow and a trace of ice. In this area, snow will mix with and change to sleet, freezing rain and then rain later in the day Wednesday..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory will see a brief wintry mix changing over to rain with little to no accumulation..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 7-11 AM Wednesday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding of shore roads. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 11 AM to 2 PM Wednesday for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for minor coastal flooding of shore roads..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 600 AM Wednesday through Early Evening..

Another winter storm remains on track to affect Southern New England late Tuesday Night through early Thursday Morning. The biggest update in this coordination message is an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for Northern Worcester, Western Franklin, Western Hampshire, and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts at the higher elevations. The snow will be heavy and wet causing the potential for scattered tree and wire damage. A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Eastern Hillsborough County NH, Eastern Franklin and Northern Middlesx Counties of Massachusetts for 2-4″ of snow and a light ice accumulation. Minor coastal flooding of shore roads are expected on the south and east coasts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island for the Wednesday morning/midday high tide and a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for this area. Winds along the coast are expected to stay just below Wind Advisory criteria with sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH possible. This will be monitored in case stronger winds aloft have a better chance of making it down to the surface.

The greatest uncertainty with this storm system remains temperatures over the region and how far and how quickly a warm front moves over the region and what kind of warming takes place at different levels of the atmosphere to determine how much snow/ice occurs over the given area and how much wind affects coastal areas. The headlines of this coordination message capture the current potential and will be monitored during the storm event.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 600 AM lasting through early evening. This will be the last coordination message for this storm system. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, and Snowfall Map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 2/27/13-Thursday Morning 2/28/13 Potential Storm Event

Hello to all..

..Winter Storm for late Tuesday Night through early Thursday Morning remains on track..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 1 AM Wednesday to 10 AM Thursday for Cheshire and Western and Central Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire for 4-8 inches of snow except up to a foot of snow above 1200 feet. The snow is expected to be heavy and wet and may result in scattered tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from late Tuesday Night through Thursday Morning for Eastern Hillsborough County New Hampshire, Franklin, Hampshire, Western Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties for 3-6 Inches of snow except higher amounts of 6-10 inches of snow are possible at elevations above 1200 feet with light ice accumulations possible. The snow is expected to be a heavy wet snow that may cause scattered tree and wire damage and power outages..
..Areas just outside of the Winter Storm Watch may see some wintry mixed precipitation before a changeover to rain. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for late tonight across portions of Northern Connecticut and Central and Western Massachusetts..
..There is a slight chance for minor coastal flooding during the Wednesday high tide along the east and south coasts of Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remains possible to likely for Wednesday..

Another winter storm remains on track to affect Southern New England late Tuesday Night through early Thursday Morning. The biggest update in this coordination message is an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for Cheshire and Western-Central Hillsborough Counties NH for 4-8″ of snow in the lower elevations and up to a foot of snow at elevations above 1200 feet. The snow will be heavy and wet causing the potential for scattered tree and wire damage. Winter Storm Watches remain in place for the same areas as last night. Winter Weather Advisories may be issued for other parts of Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut later today.

The greatest uncertainty with this storm system remains temperatures over the region and how far and how quickly a warm front moves over the region and what kind of warming takes place at different levels of the atmosphere. The headlines of this coordination message capture the current potential but that potential could change as we get closer to this event. Also, there is some potential for strong winds at the coastline but this will also depend on the warming that takes place at the coastline. There is also a slight chance for minor coastal flooding on the south and east coasts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island for the Wednesday midday high tide.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely for Wednesday. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Tuesday Evening for this storm threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, and Snowfall Map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 2/27/13-Thursday AM 2/28/13 Potential Storm Event

Hello to all..

..Another Winter Storm expected late Tuesday Night through early Thursday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from late Tuesday Night through Thursday Morning for Franklin, Hampshire, Western Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties for 4-8 Inches of snow with isolated higher amounts up to 10 inches especially at elevations above 1500 feet in Western Franklin County Massachusetts and some level of ice accumulation. The snow is expected to be a heavy wet snow that may cause scattered tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from late Tuesday Night through Thursday Morning for Southern New Hampshire for 4-8 Inches of snow except 8-12 inches of snow at elevations above 1200 feet. The snow will be heavy and wet and this may cause scattered tree and wire damage and power outages..
..Areas just outside of the Winter Storm Watch may see some wintry mixed precipitation before a changeover to rain..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely for Wednesday..

Another winter storm will affect Southern New England late Tuesday Night through early Thursday Morning. The greatest uncertainty with this storm system will be temperatures over the region and how far and how quickly a warm front moves over the region and what kind of warming takes place at different levels of the atmosphere. The headlines of this coordination message capture the current potential but that potential could change as we get closer to this event. Also, there is some potential for strong winds at the coastline but this will also depend on the warming that takes place at the coastline.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely for Wednesday. Another coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Tuesday Morning for this storm threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, and Snowfall Map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message #4 – Saturday Evening 2/23/13-Sunday 2/24/13 Winter Storm Event

Hello to all..

..Impacts from Coastal Storm remains lowered and models in better agreement on this scenario. Highest amounts of snowfall in the NWS Taunton coverage area will be over Southeast New Hampshire and possibly right along the Massachusetts/New Hampshire border..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island through 7 AM Sunday for snow and sleet accumulation of up to 1″ along with a trace of ice accumulation from a light wintry mix..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, Norfolk, Middlesex, Essex and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts from 300 PM Saturday Afternoon through Midnight Sunday Night (meaning covering all day Sunday) for 2-4″ of snow along with a trace of ice as much of this advisory area is likely to see mixed precipitation chaging over to light snow..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Southern New Hampshire from 9 PM this evening to Midnight Sunday Night (meaning covering all of Sunday) for 4-6″ of snow. The threat for pockets of scatterd tree and wire damage and scattered power outages is lower due to lower snowfall amounts but will still be monitored..
..Outside of the Winter Weather Advisory areas snowfall of under 2″ and little if any ice accumulation is currently expected..
..The coastal flood threat has been reduced to minor splashover and wind is not expected to be a factor for this storm system presuming the weaker and further offshore storm track verifies. A coastal flood statement has been issued covering the splashover threat..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized for this entire event. Ops at NWS Taunton would be possible Sunday if greater impacts unfolded for the region but that is becoming less likely..
..Checking with NWS Forecasters as of 445 PM Saturday Evening, the web-spotter form remains down but may work as the storm situation unfolds. For now, using Twitter/Facebook via the WX1BOX address, a reply to this message as well as any Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets that self-activate and the echolink *NEW-ENG* conference node: 9123/IRLP 9123 system for reports will be appreciated. If time allows, an update will be posted regarding the webform during the storm event..

Daytime model runs continue the theme of a further offshore and weaker solution with less of a model spread now lending confidence to a more offshore solution. Based on this data, snowfall amounts have been lowered over Massachusetts, Northwest Rhode Island, and Conencticut where a light wintry mix is expected as outlined in the above headlines. The heaviest snowfall amounts are currently expected in Southern New Hampshire and could affect areas of Massachusetts near the ma/nh border as we get into Sunday. At this time, the threat for tree and wire damage and power outages across the area due to wet snow or ice has lessned considerably but will be monitored for portions of Southern New Hampshire where snow amounts will be higher but the snow may be of a drier consistancy.

The coastal flood threat has been reduced to minor splashover and wind is not expected to be a factor for this storm system presuming the weaker and further offshore storm track verifies. A coastal flood statement has been issued covering the splashover threat.

Checking with NWS Forecasters as of 445 PM Saturday Evening, the web-spotter form remains down but may work as the storm situation unfolds. For now, using Twitter/Facebook via the WX1BOX address, a reply to this message as well as any Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets that self-activate and the echolink *NEW-ENG* conference node: 9123/IRLP 9123 system for reports will be appreciated. If time allows, an update will be posted regarding the webform during the storm event.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized for this entire event. Ops at NWS Taunton would be possible Sunday if greater impacts unfolded for the region but that is becoming less likely. This will be the last coordination message on this event unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. A shortened coordination message may be issued if time allows concerning the web based reporting form. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall map:

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message #3 – Saturday Evening 2/23/13-Sunday 2/24/13 Winter Storm Event

Hello to all..

..Impacts from Coastal Storm lowered due to further south and weaker system but overall confidence is lower than normal and will need to be monitored closely as the storm unfolds..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island for 1-4″ of snow along with a trace of ice accumulation from a light wintry mix that is now expected..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, Norfolk, Middlesex, and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts from 300 PM Saturday Afternoon through Midnight Sunday Night (meaning covering all day Sunday) for 2-4″ of snow in the lower terrain locations and 3-6″ of snow in higher terrain locations. In areas along and south of the Mass Turnpike that under this advisory, a period of rain/snow mix is possible before changing back to all snow Sunday Morning. The threat for pockets of scattered tree and wire damage and scattered power outages is lower due to lower snowfall amounts but will still be monitored..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Southern New Hampshire from 9 PM this evening to Midnight Sunday Night (meaning covering all of Sunday) for 4-6″ of snow. The threat for pockets of scatterd tree and wire damage and scattered power outages is lower due to lower snowfall amounts but will still be monitored..
..Outside of the Winter Weather Advisory areas snowfall of under 2″ and little if any ice accumulation is currently expected but if temperatures are slightly colder than expected that could change and will be monitored..
..The coastal flood threat has been reduced to minor splashover and wind is not expected to be a factor for this storm system presuming the weaker and further offshore storm track verifies..
..At this time, SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized for this event especially for Saturday Night and possibly into Sunday. Overnight Ops do not appear to be needed. Ops at NWS Taunton would be possible Sunday if greater impacts unfolded for the region..
..Checking with NWS Forecasters as of 900 AM Saturday Morning, the web-spotter form remains down with the same issue where the user thinks data is entered successfully but forecasters cannot see the data. The form will likely be down for the duration of this storm. Using Twitter/Facebook via the WX1BOX address, a reply to this message as well as any Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets that self-activate and the echolink *NEW-ENG* conference node: 9123/IRLP 9123 system for reports will be appreciated..

Overnight model runs continue the theme of a further offshore and weaker solution though the model spread remains high. Two models have a slightly closer and stronger solution while another reliable short range model keeps the system further offshore with even less impact. The current snowfall amounts and advisories as outlined above is a blend of these solutions.

The key items of uncertainty that remain are as follows:

1.) The amount of precipitation that occurs in areas cold enough for snow or mostly snow as the predominant precipitation.

2.) Areas further south have more precipitation forecasted but it is unclear how much will fall as rain or a mix of rain and snow. This will affect snowfall amounts in this area. Its possible other areas of southeast New England could get more snow if enough cold air is available given more precipitation is expected but it remains difficult to predict given marginal temperatures.

3.) Given that snowfall amounts have been reduced, it would appear that the threat for scattered tree and wire damage and power outages is reduced but if enough wet snow fell over the area some wet snow damage could occur and this will still need to be monitored.

Checking with NWS Forecasters as of 900 AM Saturday Morning, the web-spotter form remains down with the same issue where the user thinks data is entered successfully but forecasters cannot see the data. The form will likely be down for the duration of this storm. Using Twitter/Facebook via the WX1BOX address, a reply to this message as well as any Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets that self-activate and the echolink *NEW-ENG* conference node: 9123/IRLP 9123 system for reports will be appreciated.

At this time, SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized for this event especially for Saturday Night and possibly into Sunday. Overnight Ops do not appear to be needed. Ops at NWS Taunton would be possible Sunday if greater impacts unfolded for the region. Another coordination message will be issued by 900 PM Saturday Evening given the greater uncertainty of this event. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall map:

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Saturday Evening 2/23/13-Sunday 2/24/13 Winter Storm Event

Hello to all..

..Greater uncertainty develops as model runs through the day today now depicting a further south and weaker storm solution with a wider gap in track guidance for the region. This leads to a lower confidence forecast for the region..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Southern New Hampshire, and Essex, Middlesex, Worcester, Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden Counties and has been expanded to cover Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County in Rhode Island. A widespread 3-7″ snow accumulation is now expected with higher terrian locations seeing pockets of 6-10″ of snowfall. The snow will be heavy and wet and may cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. It is noted that these snowfall amounts could be adjusted further as we get closer to the event based on future model runs..
..Coastal Flooding is now expected to be more minor in nature for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Winds are now expected to fall short of Wind Advisory criteria. This will be monitored in future model runs..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely late Saturday Night and especially Sunday..

Over the course of the day today, model runs have been weaker with the storm system to affect the region this weekend and the track has also shifted further south. This leads to greater uncertainty in snowfall amounts and storm impacts for the region. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Evening for Southern New Hampshire and Massachusetts north of the turnpike and has been expanded to cover Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County in Rhode Island since a further south storm track may allow colder air to affect areas south and east of the Massachusetts turnpike. It is noted that other areas of Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island will need to be monitored in terms of snowfall depending on the track and intensity of the storm as well as the amount of cold air in this region. Coastal Flooding is now expected to be more minor in nature for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Winds are now expected to fall short of Wind Advisory criteria. This will be monitored in future model runs as well.

The key items of uncertainty that have developed are as follows:

1.) Interior locations of the Winter Storm Watch area may experience less snowfall as less precipitation is being seen in the models for this area. It is unclear if this trend will hold or reverse in future model runs.

2.) Areas further south have more precipitation forecasted but it is unclear how much will fall as rain or a mix of rain and snow. This will affect snowfall amounts in this area. Winter Storm Watches were extended into Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County in Rhode Island due to the shift south of this storm system. Its possible other areas of southeast New England could get more snow if enough cold air is available given more precipitation is expected but it remains difficult to predict given marginal temperatures.

3.) Given that this is likely to be a wet snow, scattered tree and wire damage and power outages could develop but enough wet snow would have to fall over a given area and its difficult to know what area could see the heaviest of the wet snow versus a drier snow consistency. Future model runs will hopefully provide clarity here.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely late Saturday Night and especially Sunday. Exact timeframe and duration is difficult to know at present. Another coordination message will be posted by Noon Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Potential Winter Storm Event late Saturday Evening 2/23/13-Sunday 2/24/13

Hello to all..

..Another weekend, another potential snowstorm for Southern New England with the potential for a heavy wet snow, strong to damaging winds and minor to moderate coastal flooding..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Southern New Hampshire and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Middlesex and Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 6″ or more of snow. This Winter Storm Watch may be expanded further south in future updates..
..Strong to damaging winds may prompt Wind Advisories for portions of East and South Coastal Massachusetts and the Cape and Islands in future updates..
..Minor to possibly Moderate Coastal Flooding is possible at the time of high tide along East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely starting either late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through the day Sunday..

Another weekend will bring another coastal storm to Southern New England. In the scenario for this weekend, temperatures will be marginal especially along and south of the Mass. Pike for heavy snowfall but along and north of the Mass. Pike, temperatures should be cold enough for snow and it is likely to be a heavy wet snow across portions of the region. A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Southern New Hampshire, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Middlesex, and Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 6″ or more of snow. Some locations could potentially see around a foot of snow depending on the amount of precipitation and the snow to water ratios. South of the Mass. Pike, precipitation will start as snow, change to rain, and then go back to snow. Some accumulation is expected but confidence is low on 6″ or more amounts in this area. Model runs have been trending a bit colder and this may necessitate Winter Storm Watches extending further south into portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. This will be monitored closely.

The heavy wet snow clinging to trees and power lines may cause scattered tree and wire damage and scattered power outages. The area where this may occur is difficult to pinpoint at this time and will depend on temperature profiles.

Strong to damaging winds will be possible across portions of East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands as well as the risk of minor to moderate coastal flooding particularly in those areas affected by the blizzard a few weeks ago. Wind Advisories may be required in this area in future updates.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely starting either late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through the day Sunday. Another coordination message will be issued by 1100 PM Friday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message #3 – Saturday Evening 2/16/13-Sunday 2/17/13 Winter Storm Event – Spotter Webform Remains Out of Service

Hello to all..

..The NWS Taunton Spotter Webform remains out of service until further notice. While the user can input data and the webform appears to accept the data, forecasters are unable to see the data entered. Spotters that don’t have a means to report via Amateur Radio are asked to utilize the WX1BOX twitter and facebook feeds or send a reply to this email address for snow totals and any damage reports for the upcoming winter storm. The spotter phone line is also available but using digital means to keep the spotter phone line from being overloaded are appreciated. In addition, Ops at the WX1BOX Amateur Radio station will be active starting no later than 5 AM Sunday for the upcoming winter storm. The typical coordination mesage for this storm begins below..

..Models in better agreement on a Moderate to Heavy Snowstorm for Eastern New England. Still a bit higher uncertainty than normal despite close time range of Winter Storm impacts but better model agreement has led to greater confidence and a closer to the coast storm solution marking a bit of an upgrade to the storm situation..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect until 7 PM Sunday Evening for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island including Block Island Rhode Island for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts along Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Southeast Coastal Rhode Island possible. Near whiteout conditions may occur for a time due to heavy snow and winds sustained at 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. The winds and snow may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages but this is expected to be less than what occurred during last week’s blizzard..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for all of Cape Cod and the Islands until 7 PM Sunday Evening for 6-10 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts to 12″ along portions of the mid to Outer Cape and Nantucket Island, and a period of near blizzard conditions. Also, a High Wind Warning is now in effect from 5 AM to 10 PM Sunday for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 30-45 MPH with gusts to 55-60 MPH. The combination of wet snow, which should get drier as the storm progresses, and strong to damaging winds will bring the potential for scattered tree and wire damage and scattered power outages. While a period of near blizzard conditions and strong to damaging winds and scattered pockets of damage is likely, the impact is expected to be less than last weekend’s blizzard. This will be monitored closely..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect until 1 PM Sunday for Windham County Connecticut, Worcester, Middlesex, and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts, and Hillsborough Counties New Hampshire for 3-6″ of snow and the possibility of isolated tree and wire damage from wind gusts up to 40-45 MPH in this area..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Eastern and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH..
..Areas west of the current Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory areas are expected to receive less than 3 inches of snow from this event with wind gusts below Wind Advisory criteria at this time..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 5 AM ET Sunday lasting through Sunday Evening to cover this winter storm threat..

Please note the problem with the web spotter form which is expected to continue through the duration of this storm event. We appreciate everyone’s support in using alternative methods to pass on their spotter reporting data.

Weather models have come into better agreement on the evolution of the ocean storm leading to greater confidence on the evolution of the storm and impacts across Central and Eastern New England, however, confidence is still somewhat lower than normal with a storm impact about to occur in the region. The trend has been for a slightly closer to the coast storm solution and this has led to a bit of an upgrade in the storm scenario for stronger winds and heavier snowfall in Eastern New England. This has led to an upgrade of Winter Weather Advisories to Winter Storm Warnings for portions of Eastern Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island and expansion of Winter Weather Advisories to Central Massaschusetts, Northeast Connecticut and Southeast New Hampshire as highlighted in the headlines of this storm coordination message. Also, High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been posted for portions of Eastern New England as highlighted in the headlines of this coordination message.

Given what occurred in the blizzard last weekend with extended power outages in Southeast New England, here is some additional guidance on what is expected for this storm scenario. At this time, winds will not be quite as strong as last weekend’s blizzard and the wet snow duration should not be quite as long as last weekend’s blizzard. This should mean less impact to the region that was hit hard by power outages from last weekend’s blizzard but there will likely be some isolated to scattered tree and wire damage and power outages for Southeast New England from this storm event presuming the current model track and forecast holds. This will be monitored closely throughout the storm event.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 5 AM ET Sunday lasting through Sunday Evening to cover this winter storm threat. This will likely be the last coordination message on this storm situation. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 2/16/13-Sunday 2/17/13 Winter Storm Event – Note Web Spotter Form Outage

Hello to all..

..It is noted that the Spotter Webform for entry of Snowfall Reports is down. If you have a snowfall report from this morning’s snowfall, please relay as a reply to this coordination message. We will notify everyone when it returns to service.

..After an area of light snow moves through Southern New England this morning producing snowfall amounts from a dusting to as much as 3 inches, A Winter Storm Will Impact Portions of Southern New England Saturday Night into Sunday Night with greatest risk for Heavy Snow in Southeast New England with strong winds across portions of Eastern New England. Model spread remains high leading to greater uncertainty even though the storm is less than 24 hours from impact..
..A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 7 PM tonight through 7 PM Sunday Evening for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for 4-8 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts with a storm track closer to the coast. Lesser amounts if a further offshore solution verifies. Sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH are possible. This may lead to isolated pockets of tree and wire damage..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 7 PM tonight to 1 PM Sunday Afternoon for Southern Bristol, Plymouth County Massachusetts and Marthas Vineyard for 4 to 6 Inches of snow. Isolated higher amounts would be possible with a storm track closer to the coast. Lesser amounts if a further offshore solution verifies. Sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH are possible. This may lead to isolated pockets of tree and wire damage..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 7 PM tonight to 1 PM Sunday for all of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts except for Northern Middlesex County Massachusetts for 2-4 Inches of snow. Isolated higher amounts would be possible with a storm track closer to the coast. Lesser amounts if a further offshore solution verifies..
..Outside of the Winter Weather Advisory/Winter Storm Warning areas, snowfall amounts should be less than 2 inches. A Wind Advisory may be issued for later this weekend for parts of the region as strong winds affect the region from the departing ocean storm..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the light snowfall today. SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Sunday for the snowfall with Ops at NWS Taunton possible particularly if the web spotter form remains out of service..

A light snowfall has occurred across portions of interior Southern New England with some locations receiving up to 2-3 inches of snow. It is noted that the web spotter form is down so any snowfall reports would be appreciated as a response to this message. After this light snowfall, a more potent winter storm will affect the region particularly Eastern New England and Southeast portions of the area. The model spread on this winter storm remains high creating greater uncertainty. One set of computer models brings only light snowfall to Southeast New England, while another set brings heavier snows to the area. Currently, it is the set of models calling for heavier snowfall that are being used for the forecast. As the ocean storm organizes during the course of the day, it will help determine if those models will verify.

The headlines above depict the storm impacts. It is noted that some additional tree and wire damage will be possible in areas hard hit by last week’s blizzard if the closer to the coast model solutions verify. Winds are not expected to be as strong as what was experienced in the blizzard and while snow will start off wet initially, it will become a drier snow as the storm wears on. Isolated tree and wire damage and power outages will be possible but this will be far less of an impact than the blizzard of last weekend based on the current models.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the light snowfall today. SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Sunday for the snowfall with Ops at NWS Taunton possible particularly if the web spotter form remains out of service. Another coordination message will be issued by 8 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Saturday February 16th-Sunday February 17th 2013 Potential Winter Storm Event

Hello to all..

..A Winter Storm Possible for portions of Southern New England this weekend. Uncertianty higher than normal due to large model spread..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Saturday Evening to Sunday Afternoon for Cape Cod and the Islands and Eastern Plymouth County of Massachusetts for 4 to 8 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts depending on the track of the storm system. Strong winds will also be possible during the Winter Storm Watch timeframe and may result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage..
..Winter Weather Advisories maybe required for portions of Eastern New England for Saturday Night into Sunday Morning particularly southeast portions. Wind Advisories may also be required for portions of Southern New England Saturday Evening into Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely this weekend for snowfall amounts and any wind damage reports. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if a storm scenario closer to the coast evolves..

Models have a wider than normal spread at this time range regarding the potential for a Winter Storm for the Saturday Evening into Sunday Afternoon timeframe. Therefore confidence on storm impacts to the region is lower than normal. The following represents the most likely scenario based on current data. This scenario may change based on future model runs.

There will be some snow late tonight into Saturday Morning. This snowfall will be most likely in interior locations. Snowfall will likely be a Dusting to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts. There will then be a lull in snowfall activity later Saturday Morning into the afternoon.

As we move into Saturday Night, a ocean storm will organize and potentially bring a period of heavier snow to Cape Cod and the Islands with a light to moderate snowfall over other portions of Eastern New England. Winds will also increase with the potential for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts up to 50 MPH. A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Saturday Evening to Sunday Afternoon for Cape Cod and the Islands and Eastern Plymouth County of Massachusetts for 4 to 8 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts depending on the track of the storm system. Strong winds will also be possible during the Winter Storm Watch timeframe and may result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage. Winter Weather Advisories maybe required for portions of Eastern New England for Saturday Night into Sunday Morning particularly southeast portions where a 2 to 6 inch snowfall is possible. Wind Advisories may also be required for portions of Southern New England Saturday Evening into Monday.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely this weekend for snowfall amounts and any wind damage reports this weekend. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if a storm scenario closer to the coast evolves. Another coordination message will be sent by 11 AM Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Read more

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