Storm Coordination Message #2 – Saturday Evening 2/23/13-Sunday 2/24/13 Winter Storm Event

Hello to all..

..Greater uncertainty develops as model runs through the day today now depicting a further south and weaker storm solution with a wider gap in track guidance for the region. This leads to a lower confidence forecast for the region..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Southern New Hampshire, and Essex, Middlesex, Worcester, Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden Counties and has been expanded to cover Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County in Rhode Island. A widespread 3-7″ snow accumulation is now expected with higher terrian locations seeing pockets of 6-10″ of snowfall. The snow will be heavy and wet and may cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. It is noted that these snowfall amounts could be adjusted further as we get closer to the event based on future model runs..
..Coastal Flooding is now expected to be more minor in nature for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Winds are now expected to fall short of Wind Advisory criteria. This will be monitored in future model runs..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely late Saturday Night and especially Sunday..

Over the course of the day today, model runs have been weaker with the storm system to affect the region this weekend and the track has also shifted further south. This leads to greater uncertainty in snowfall amounts and storm impacts for the region. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Evening for Southern New Hampshire and Massachusetts north of the turnpike and has been expanded to cover Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County in Rhode Island since a further south storm track may allow colder air to affect areas south and east of the Massachusetts turnpike. It is noted that other areas of Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island will need to be monitored in terms of snowfall depending on the track and intensity of the storm as well as the amount of cold air in this region. Coastal Flooding is now expected to be more minor in nature for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Winds are now expected to fall short of Wind Advisory criteria. This will be monitored in future model runs as well.

The key items of uncertainty that have developed are as follows:

1.) Interior locations of the Winter Storm Watch area may experience less snowfall as less precipitation is being seen in the models for this area. It is unclear if this trend will hold or reverse in future model runs.

2.) Areas further south have more precipitation forecasted but it is unclear how much will fall as rain or a mix of rain and snow. This will affect snowfall amounts in this area. Winter Storm Watches were extended into Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County in Rhode Island due to the shift south of this storm system. Its possible other areas of southeast New England could get more snow if enough cold air is available given more precipitation is expected but it remains difficult to predict given marginal temperatures.

3.) Given that this is likely to be a wet snow, scattered tree and wire damage and power outages could develop but enough wet snow would have to fall over a given area and its difficult to know what area could see the heaviest of the wet snow versus a drier snow consistency. Future model runs will hopefully provide clarity here.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely late Saturday Night and especially Sunday. Exact timeframe and duration is difficult to know at present. Another coordination message will be posted by Noon Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Greater uncertainty develops as model runs through the day today now depicting a further south and weaker storm solution with a wider gap in track guidance for the region. This leads to a lower confidence forecast for the region..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Southern New Hampshire, and Essex, Middlesex, Worcester, Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden Counties and has been expanded to cover Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County in Rhode Island. A widespread 3-7″ snow accumulation is now expected with higher terrian locations seeing pockets of 6-10″ of snowfall. The snow will be heavy and wet and may cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. It is noted that these snowfall amounts could be adjusted further as we get closer to the event based on future model runs..
..Coastal Flooding is now expected to be more minor in nature for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Winds are now expected to fall short of Wind Advisory criteria. This will be monitored in future model runs..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely late Saturday Night and especially Sunday..

Over the course of the day today, model runs have been weaker with the storm system to affect the region this weekend and the track has also shifted further south. This leads to greater uncertainty in snowfall amounts and storm impacts for the region. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Evening for Southern New Hampshire and Massachusetts north of the turnpike and has been expanded to cover Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County in Rhode Island since a further south storm track may allow colder air to affect areas south and east of the Massachusetts turnpike. It is noted that other areas of Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island will need to be monitored in terms of snowfall depending on the track and intensity of the storm as well as the amount of cold air in this region. Coastal Flooding is now expected to be more minor in nature for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Winds are now expected to fall short of Wind Advisory criteria. This will be monitored in future model runs as well.

The key items of uncertainty that have developed are as follows:

1.) Interior locations of the Winter Storm Watch area may experience less snowfall as less precipitation is being seen in the models for this area. It is unclear if this trend will hold or reverse in future model runs.

2.) Areas further south have more precipitation forecasted but it is unclear how much will fall as rain or a mix of rain and snow. This will affect snowfall amounts in this area. Winter Storm Watches were extended into Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County in Rhode Island due to the shift south of this storm system. Its possible other areas of southeast New England could get more snow if enough cold air is available given more precipitation is expected but it remains difficult to predict given marginal temperatures.

3.) Given that this is likely to be a wet snow, scattered tree and wire damage and power outages could develop but enough wet snow would have to fall over a given area and its difficult to know what area could see the heaviest of the wet snow versus a drier snow consistency. Future model runs will hopefully provide clarity here.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely late Saturday Night and especially Sunday. Exact timeframe and duration is difficult to know at present. Another coordination message will be posted by Noon Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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