Storm Coordination Message #3 – Saturday Evening 2/23/13-Sunday 2/24/13 Winter Storm Event

Hello to all..

..Impacts from Coastal Storm lowered due to further south and weaker system but overall confidence is lower than normal and will need to be monitored closely as the storm unfolds..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island for 1-4″ of snow along with a trace of ice accumulation from a light wintry mix that is now expected..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, Norfolk, Middlesex, and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts from 300 PM Saturday Afternoon through Midnight Sunday Night (meaning covering all day Sunday) for 2-4″ of snow in the lower terrain locations and 3-6″ of snow in higher terrain locations. In areas along and south of the Mass Turnpike that under this advisory, a period of rain/snow mix is possible before changing back to all snow Sunday Morning. The threat for pockets of scattered tree and wire damage and scattered power outages is lower due to lower snowfall amounts but will still be monitored..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Southern New Hampshire from 9 PM this evening to Midnight Sunday Night (meaning covering all of Sunday) for 4-6″ of snow. The threat for pockets of scatterd tree and wire damage and scattered power outages is lower due to lower snowfall amounts but will still be monitored..
..Outside of the Winter Weather Advisory areas snowfall of under 2″ and little if any ice accumulation is currently expected but if temperatures are slightly colder than expected that could change and will be monitored..
..The coastal flood threat has been reduced to minor splashover and wind is not expected to be a factor for this storm system presuming the weaker and further offshore storm track verifies..
..At this time, SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized for this event especially for Saturday Night and possibly into Sunday. Overnight Ops do not appear to be needed. Ops at NWS Taunton would be possible Sunday if greater impacts unfolded for the region..
..Checking with NWS Forecasters as of 900 AM Saturday Morning, the web-spotter form remains down with the same issue where the user thinks data is entered successfully but forecasters cannot see the data. The form will likely be down for the duration of this storm. Using Twitter/Facebook via the WX1BOX address, a reply to this message as well as any Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets that self-activate and the echolink *NEW-ENG* conference node: 9123/IRLP 9123 system for reports will be appreciated..

Overnight model runs continue the theme of a further offshore and weaker solution though the model spread remains high. Two models have a slightly closer and stronger solution while another reliable short range model keeps the system further offshore with even less impact. The current snowfall amounts and advisories as outlined above is a blend of these solutions.

The key items of uncertainty that remain are as follows:

1.) The amount of precipitation that occurs in areas cold enough for snow or mostly snow as the predominant precipitation.

2.) Areas further south have more precipitation forecasted but it is unclear how much will fall as rain or a mix of rain and snow. This will affect snowfall amounts in this area. Its possible other areas of southeast New England could get more snow if enough cold air is available given more precipitation is expected but it remains difficult to predict given marginal temperatures.

3.) Given that snowfall amounts have been reduced, it would appear that the threat for scattered tree and wire damage and power outages is reduced but if enough wet snow fell over the area some wet snow damage could occur and this will still need to be monitored.

Checking with NWS Forecasters as of 900 AM Saturday Morning, the web-spotter form remains down with the same issue where the user thinks data is entered successfully but forecasters cannot see the data. The form will likely be down for the duration of this storm. Using Twitter/Facebook via the WX1BOX address, a reply to this message as well as any Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets that self-activate and the echolink *NEW-ENG* conference node: 9123/IRLP 9123 system for reports will be appreciated.

At this time, SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized for this event especially for Saturday Night and possibly into Sunday. Overnight Ops do not appear to be needed. Ops at NWS Taunton would be possible Sunday if greater impacts unfolded for the region. Another coordination message will be issued by 900 PM Saturday Evening given the greater uncertainty of this event. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall map:

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Impacts from Coastal Storm lowered due to further south and weaker system but overall confidence is lower than normal and will need to be monitored closely as the storm unfolds..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island for 1-4″ of snow along with a trace of ice accumulation from a light wintry mix that is now expected..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, Norfolk, Middlesex, and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts from 300 PM Saturday Afternoon through Midnight Sunday Night (meaning covering all day Sunday) for 2-4″ of snow in the lower terrain locations and 3-6″ of snow in higher terrain locations. In areas along and south of the Mass Turnpike that under this advisory, a period of rain/snow mix is possible before changing back to all snow Sunday Morning. The threat for pockets of scattered tree and wire damage and scattered power outages is lower due to lower snowfall amounts but will still be monitored..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Southern New Hampshire from 9 PM this evening to Midnight Sunday Night (meaning covering all of Sunday) for 4-6″ of snow. The threat for pockets of scatterd tree and wire damage and scattered power outages is lower due to lower snowfall amounts but will still be monitored..
..Outside of the Winter Weather Advisory areas snowfall of under 2″ and little if any ice accumulation is currently expected but if temperatures are slightly colder than expected that could change and will be monitored..
..The coastal flood threat has been reduced to minor splashover and wind is not expected to be a factor for this storm system presuming the weaker and further offshore storm track verifies..
..At this time, SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized for this event especially for Saturday Night and possibly into Sunday. Overnight Ops do not appear to be needed. Ops at NWS Taunton would be possible Sunday if greater impacts unfolded for the region..
..Checking with NWS Forecasters as of 900 AM Saturday Morning, the web-spotter form remains down with the same issue where the user thinks data is entered successfully but forecasters cannot see the data. The form will likely be down for the duration of this storm. Using Twitter/Facebook via the WX1BOX address, a reply to this message as well as any Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets that self-activate and the echolink *NEW-ENG* conference node: 9123/IRLP 9123 system for reports will be appreciated..

Overnight model runs continue the theme of a further offshore and weaker solution though the model spread remains high. Two models have a slightly closer and stronger solution while another reliable short range model keeps the system further offshore with even less impact. The current snowfall amounts and advisories as outlined above is a blend of these solutions.

The key items of uncertainty that remain are as follows:

1.) The amount of precipitation that occurs in areas cold enough for snow or mostly snow as the predominant precipitation.

2.) Areas further south have more precipitation forecasted but it is unclear how much will fall as rain or a mix of rain and snow. This will affect snowfall amounts in this area. Its possible other areas of southeast New England could get more snow if enough cold air is available given more precipitation is expected but it remains difficult to predict given marginal temperatures.

3.) Given that snowfall amounts have been reduced, it would appear that the threat for scattered tree and wire damage and power outages is reduced but if enough wet snow fell over the area some wet snow damage could occur and this will still need to be monitored.

Checking with NWS Forecasters as of 900 AM Saturday Morning, the web-spotter form remains down with the same issue where the user thinks data is entered successfully but forecasters cannot see the data. The form will likely be down for the duration of this storm. Using Twitter/Facebook via the WX1BOX address, a reply to this message as well as any Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets that self-activate and the echolink *NEW-ENG* conference node: 9123/IRLP 9123 system for reports will be appreciated.

At this time, SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized for this event especially for Saturday Night and possibly into Sunday. Overnight Ops do not appear to be needed. Ops at NWS Taunton would be possible Sunday if greater impacts unfolded for the region. Another coordination message will be issued by 900 PM Saturday Evening given the greater uncertainty of this event. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall map:

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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