Flash Flood/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – August 13th, 2013 Flash Flood/Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and urban/poor drainage and small river/stream flooding potential are likely today region wide and Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible this afternoon and evening with the greatest threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts though all areas should monitor this potential..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely starting around Midday Tuesday into Tuesday Evening..

At 720 AM, Doppler Radar indicated rain spreading into portions of Connecticut with heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms over portions of Eastern New York. This activity will spread across Southern New England today. The greatest threat from this activity is heavy rainfall leading to urban/poor drainage and small/river stream flooding across areas that receive the heaviest rainfall. Heavy rainfall will not likely be as widespread as Friday but localized areas could have flooding issues particularly in urban and poor drainage areas and on flashier rivers and streams that respond quickly to short duration heavy rainfall.

While extensive cloud cover will likely limit any severe weather potential due to the lack of sunshine limiting instability values, the humid conditions coupled with strong wind shear profiles may allow for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms by midday into this evening across portions of Southern New England particularly in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts though all areas should monitor. Damaging Winds are the primary threat though there is even the possibility of an isolated weak tornado if a thunderstorm can become intense enough due to the strong wind shear profiles aloft but the main threat would be strong to damaging straightline winds.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely starting around Midday today lasting into Tuesday Evening. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and urban/poor drainage and small river/stream flooding potential are likely today region wide and Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible this afternoon and evening with the greatest threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts though all areas should monitor this potential..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely starting around Midday Tuesday into Tuesday Evening..

At 720 AM, Doppler Radar indicated rain spreading into portions of Connecticut with heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms over portions of Eastern New York. This activity will spread across Southern New England today. The greatest threat from this activity is heavy rainfall leading to urban/poor drainage and small/river stream flooding across areas that receive the heaviest rainfall. Heavy rainfall will not likely be as widespread as Friday but localized areas could have flooding issues particularly in urban and poor drainage areas and on flashier rivers and streams that respond quickly to short duration heavy rainfall.

While extensive cloud cover will likely limit any severe weather potential due to the lack of sunshine limiting instability values, the humid conditions coupled with strong wind shear profiles may allow for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms by midday into this evening across portions of Southern New England particularly in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts though all areas should monitor. Damaging Winds are the primary threat though there is even the possibility of an isolated weak tornado if a thunderstorm can become intense enough due to the strong wind shear profiles aloft but the main threat would be strong to damaging straightline winds.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely starting around Midday today lasting into Tuesday Evening. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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