Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday October 7th, 2013 Potential Severe Weather/High Wind Event

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible late Monday Afternoon and Monday Night especially across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut but all areas should monitor. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed parts of this area in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Monday with damaging winds and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late Monday Afternoon and Monday Night..

A strong cold front, which will also encompass the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen, will move across Southern New England as we get into later Monday Afternoon and Monday Night. This front will have very strong jet stream dynamics which will likely result in a line of heavy downpours capable of causing pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding and the possibility of a fine line of heavy showers and/or thunderstorms that would allow strong to damaging winds to reach the surface resulting in isolated pockets of wind damage in the area. Some strong winds may also be possible ahead of the cold front as well. The key factors to any isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm threat or for a fine line of strong to severe thunderstorms to develop will be the ability of jet dynamics to overcome limited instability in the atmosphere or if more instability in the atmosphere develops than modeled.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late Monday Afternoon and Monday Night. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus02.KWNS.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible late Monday Afternoon and Monday Night especially across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut but all areas should monitor. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed parts of this area in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Monday with damaging winds and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late Monday Afternoon and Monday Night..

A strong cold front, which will also encompass the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen, will move across Southern New England as we get into later Monday Afternoon and Monday Night. This front will have very strong jet stream dynamics which will likely result in a line of heavy downpours capable of causing pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding and the possibility of a fine line of heavy showers and/or thunderstorms that would allow strong to damaging winds to reach the surface resulting in isolated pockets of wind damage in the area. Some strong winds may also be possible ahead of the cold front as well. The key factors to any isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm threat or for a fine line of strong to severe thunderstorms to develop will be the ability of jet dynamics to overcome limited instability in the atmosphere or if more instability in the atmosphere develops than modeled.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late Monday Afternoon and Monday Night. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus02.KWNS.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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