Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday October 7th, 2013 Potential Severe Weather/High Wind Event

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible to likely Monday Afternoon and Monday Night especially across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut but all areas should monitor. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Monday with damaging winds and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats..
..Strong Wind Gusts of 40 MPH with isolated higher gusts with fully leaved trees and winds out of a Southerly direction may also cause isolated pockets of tree and power line damage ahead of any line of convective showers or thunderstorms. A Wind Advisory is in effect from Noon-8 PM EDT Monday for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely Monday Afternoon and Monday Night..

A strong cold front, which will also encompass the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen, is still expected to move across Southern New England as we get into Monday Afternoon and Monday Night. This front will have very strong jet stream dynamics which will likely result in a line of heavy downpours capable of causing pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding and the possibility of a fine line of heavy showers and/or thunderstorms that would allow strong to damaging winds to reach the surface resulting in isolated pockets of wind damage in the area. The key factors to any isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm threat or for a fine line of heavy showers and/or strong to severe thunderstorms to develop continues to be the ability of jet dynamics to overcome limited instability in the atmosphere or if more instability in the atmosphere develops than modeled.

Ahead of the cold front and any convective showers and thunderstorms that develop, winds will increase out of the south with wind gusts of 40 MPH with a few areas possibly reaching Wind Advisory gusts of 45-50 MPH. A Wind Advisory is in effect from Noon-8 PM Monday for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts as this area seems to be the most likely to hit Wind Advisory criteria ahead of any convective showers and thunderstorms. This will be monitored for additional issues outside of this area.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely Monday Afternoon and Monday Night. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible to likely Monday Afternoon and Monday Night especially across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut but all areas should monitor. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Monday with damaging winds and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats..
..Strong Wind Gusts of 40 MPH with isolated higher gusts with fully leaved trees and winds out of a Southerly direction may also cause isolated pockets of tree and power line damage ahead of any line of convective showers or thunderstorms. A Wind Advisory is in effect from Noon-8 PM EDT Monday for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely Monday Afternoon and Monday Night..

A strong cold front, which will also encompass the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen, is still expected to move across Southern New England as we get into Monday Afternoon and Monday Night. This front will have very strong jet stream dynamics which will likely result in a line of heavy downpours capable of causing pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding and the possibility of a fine line of heavy showers and/or thunderstorms that would allow strong to damaging winds to reach the surface resulting in isolated pockets of wind damage in the area. The key factors to any isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm threat or for a fine line of heavy showers and/or strong to severe thunderstorms to develop continues to be the ability of jet dynamics to overcome limited instability in the atmosphere or if more instability in the atmosphere develops than modeled.

Ahead of the cold front and any convective showers and thunderstorms that develop, winds will increase out of the south with wind gusts of 40 MPH with a few areas possibly reaching Wind Advisory gusts of 45-50 MPH. A Wind Advisory is in effect from Noon-8 PM Monday for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts as this area seems to be the most likely to hit Wind Advisory criteria ahead of any convective showers and thunderstorms. This will be monitored for additional issues outside of this area.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely Monday Afternoon and Monday Night. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Leave a Reply