Severe Weather/Storm Coordination Message #1 – Monday November 18th, 2013 Potential Severe Weather/High Wind Event

Hello to all..

..The potential exists for a period of strong to possibly damaging winds along and ahead of a cold front late Sunday Night through Monday Morning. The extent of the threat is still being evaluated..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island in a Slight Risk for severe weather through 7 AM Monday Morning and a 5% risk for severe weather through early afternoon Monday for the rest of Southern New England. The severe weather mode would be a fine line of convective showers and/or thunderstorms that could bring stronger winds down to the surface..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the situation overnight through early Monday Afternoon. Ops at NWS Taunton may also be required for some portion of this period..

A major severe weather outbreak is expected today over portions of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and Great Lakes region starting late this morning and lasting through evening and into Monday. This activity will make its way into the Northeast United States overnight Sunday through early Monday Afternoon. The extent of the threat is still being evaluated but there is the potential for strong winds ahead of the cold front and the potential for strong to possibly damaging winds with a squall line or fine line of convective showers and/or thunderstorms with the actual cold front itself. Brief heavy downpours are possible as well. SPC has places portions of Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island in a Slight Risk for severe weather through 7 AM Monday Morning and a 5% risk for severe weather through early afternoon Monday for the rest of Southern New England. Given the overnight into morning timing of the cold front, the unusual time of year for a threat of convective showers and/or thunderstorms and the uncertainty of how much of the strong winds aloft will reach the surface even in any convection, the confidence level on the event is lower than normal but there will be the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage as the front moves through overnight through early afternoon Monday and this will bear close monitoring.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the situation overnight through early Monday Afternoon. Ops at NWS Taunton may also be required for some portion of this period. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..The potential exists for a period of strong to possibly damaging winds along and ahead of a cold front late Sunday Night through Monday Morning. The extent of the threat is still being evaluated..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island in a Slight Risk for severe weather through 7 AM Monday Morning and a 5% risk for severe weather through early afternoon Monday for the rest of Southern New England. The severe weather mode would be a fine line of convective showers and/or thunderstorms that could bring stronger winds down to the surface..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the situation overnight through early Monday Afternoon. Ops at NWS Taunton may also be required for some portion of this period..

A major severe weather outbreak is expected today over portions of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and Great Lakes region starting late this morning and lasting through evening and into Monday. This activity will make its way into the Northeast United States overnight Sunday through early Monday Afternoon. The extent of the threat is still being evaluated but there is the potential for strong winds ahead of the cold front and the potential for strong to possibly damaging winds with a squall line or fine line of convective showers and/or thunderstorms with the actual cold front itself. Brief heavy downpours are possible as well. SPC has places portions of Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island in a Slight Risk for severe weather through 7 AM Monday Morning and a 5% risk for severe weather through early afternoon Monday for the rest of Southern New England. Given the overnight into morning timing of the cold front, the unusual time of year for a threat of convective showers and/or thunderstorms and the uncertainty of how much of the strong winds aloft will reach the surface even in any convection, the confidence level on the event is lower than normal but there will be the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage as the front moves through overnight through early afternoon Monday and this will bear close monitoring.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the situation overnight through early Monday Afternoon. Ops at NWS Taunton may also be required for some portion of this period. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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