Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #3 – Saturday-Sunday AM 2/15/14-2/16/14 Potential Blizzard/Winter Storm Event

Hello to all..

..Yet another Major Winter Coastal Storm/Blizzard for Portions of Southern New England as the Winter of 2013-2014 tightens its grip on the region before moderation comes by the middle to end of next week..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 4 PM Saturday Afternoon through 5 AM Sunday Morning for all of Eastern Essex, East Coastal Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod for 6-10″ of snow with the potential for 10-14″ snowfall amounts and possibly isolated higher amounts in East Coastal Plymouth County and Cape Cod with sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible leading to blizzard conditions..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 7 PM Saturday Evening through 5 AM Sunday Morning for Dukes County/Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Island for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible leading to blizzard conditions..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 10 AM Saturday Morning to 5 AM Sunday Morning for all of Rhode Island except for Block Island, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, Bristol and Western and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 8-12″ of snow with isolated amounts possible with near blizzard conditions possible in Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and sustained winds 15-25 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH and higher gusts possible along Southeast Coastal Massachusetts..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 10 AM Saturday Morning to 5 AM Sunday Morning for Central Middlesex, Western Essex, Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts and Windham County Connecticut for 4-8″ of snow and sustained winds 10-20 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Saturday to Midnight Saturday Night for Hartford-Tolland Counties of Connecticut, Northern Worcester, Northern and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts and has been expanded to all of Hillsborough County New Hampshire and Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for 3-6″ of snow..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Block Island Rhode Island from 10 AM Saturday to 5 AM Sunday for 4-6″ of snow and sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 9 PM Saturday Evening to 4 AM Sunday Morning for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for north and east facing locations for the potential of minor coastal flooding at tonight’s high tide cycle..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 4 PM Saturday Afternoon and last through early Sunday Morning..

Models have continued to agree on a significant impact particularly for Eastern New England with yet another major coastal storm/blizzard for the region. This new major coastal storm/blizzard will take shape to our west and rapidly intensify off the Southern New England coast. Models are in good agreement now on a significant impact to Eastern New England with a more moderate impact elsewhere. The message headlines detail the potential impacts for Southern New England and have been adjusted to reflect stronger wind potential at the coast, the potential for minor coastal flooding on Cape Cod and Nantucket and higher snowfall in northwest locations. This is now the third Blizzard Warning issued for a portion of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area this winter season and affecting similar areas to the prior Blizzard Warnings from this season.

Unlike the past blizzards of earlier this year, the snow is likely to be somewhat heavier and wetter and coupled with the strong to damaging wind potential, we will need to monitor for the potential of isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in the Blizzard Warning areas and locations closest to the Blizzard Warning area. The model consensus being followed shows that this storm event should again fall short of the impact of the February Blizzard of 2013 but this will be monitored closely particularly over Cape Cod and the Islands and Southeast Plymouth County.

There is still a bit of uncertainty in the northwest extent of this system. The model consensus shows that the northwestern parts of the region will get a moderate, plowable snow out of this storm system but there will be a sharp cutoff which may mean a sharp difference in snowfall amounts in these area. The headlines above reflect the latest thinking on how that will lineup for northwest parts of the region. Further adjustments could occur as this coastal storm takes shape over the region.

Due to stronger winds expected over Cape Cod and Nantucket Island, A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island from 9 PM tonight through 400 AM Sunday Morning for minor coastal flooding at the time of tonight’s high tide. The coastal flooding is expected to be less than the early January 2014 blizzard but minor shore road flooding in north and east facing locations are possible in these areas.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 400 PM this afternoon through Sunday Morning. This will likely be the last coordination message for this potential major winter storm/blizzard. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Map:

NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Yet another Major Winter Coastal Storm/Blizzard for Portions of Southern New England as the Winter of 2013-2014 tightens its grip on the region before moderation comes by the middle to end of next week..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 4 PM Saturday Afternoon through 5 AM Sunday Morning for all of Eastern Essex, East Coastal Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod for 6-10″ of snow with the potential for 10-14″ snowfall amounts and possibly isolated higher amounts in East Coastal Plymouth County and Cape Cod with sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible leading to blizzard conditions..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 7 PM Saturday Evening through 5 AM Sunday Morning for Dukes County/Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Island for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible leading to blizzard conditions..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 10 AM Saturday Morning to 5 AM Sunday Morning for all of Rhode Island except for Block Island, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, Bristol and Western and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 8-12″ of snow with isolated amounts possible with near blizzard conditions possible in Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and sustained winds 15-25 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH and higher gusts possible along Southeast Coastal Massachusetts..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 10 AM Saturday Morning to 5 AM Sunday Morning for Central Middlesex, Western Essex, Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts and Windham County Connecticut for 4-8″ of snow and sustained winds 10-20 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Saturday to Midnight Saturday Night for Hartford-Tolland Counties of Connecticut, Northern Worcester, Northern and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts and has been expanded to all of Hillsborough County New Hampshire and Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for 3-6″ of snow..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Block Island Rhode Island from 10 AM Saturday to 5 AM Sunday for 4-6″ of snow and sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 9 PM Saturday Evening to 4 AM Sunday Morning for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for north and east facing locations for the potential of minor coastal flooding at tonight’s high tide cycle..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 4 PM Saturday Afternoon and last through early Sunday Morning..

Models have continued to agree on a significant impact particularly for Eastern New England with yet another major coastal storm/blizzard for the region. This new major coastal storm/blizzard will take shape to our west and rapidly intensify off the Southern New England coast. Models are in good agreement now on a significant impact to Eastern New England with a more moderate impact elsewhere. The message headlines detail the potential impacts for Southern New England and have been adjusted to reflect stronger wind potential at the coast, the potential for minor coastal flooding on Cape Cod and Nantucket and higher snowfall in northwest locations. This is now the third Blizzard Warning issued for a portion of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area this winter season and affecting similar areas to the prior Blizzard Warnings from this season.

Unlike the past blizzards of earlier this year, the snow is likely to be somewhat heavier and wetter and coupled with the strong to damaging wind potential, we will need to monitor for the potential of isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in the Blizzard Warning areas and locations closest to the Blizzard Warning area. The model consensus being followed shows that this storm event should again fall short of the impact of the February Blizzard of 2013 but this will be monitored closely particularly over Cape Cod and the Islands and Southeast Plymouth County.

There is still a bit of uncertainty in the northwest extent of this system. The model consensus shows that the northwestern parts of the region will get a moderate, plowable snow out of this storm system but there will be a sharp cutoff which may mean a sharp difference in snowfall amounts in these area. The headlines above reflect the latest thinking on how that will lineup for northwest parts of the region. Further adjustments could occur as this coastal storm takes shape over the region.

Due to stronger winds expected over Cape Cod and Nantucket Island, A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island from 9 PM tonight through 400 AM Sunday Morning for minor coastal flooding at the time of tonight’s high tide. The coastal flooding is expected to be less than the early January 2014 blizzard but minor shore road flooding in north and east facing locations are possible in these areas.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 400 PM this afternoon through Sunday Morning. This will likely be the last coordination message for this potential major winter storm/blizzard. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Map:

NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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