Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday July 31st 2014 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely today especially in Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts but could extend as far south and east as the I-95 corridor. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather with a 5% probability of severe weather further south in Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely today..

A trough will approach the region from the north and west today. While the best forcing and strongest part of the trough will be in Northern New England and while temperatures and humidity values won’t be particularly high, temperatures in the upper level of the atmosphere will be quite cold and the trough’s southern extent should provide a trigger mechanism. This temperature difference aloft versus the surface will create instability with quite favorable wind shear profiles with that trough as a trigger mechanism. This should set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms today particularly in Northwest Massachusetts and Southwest New Hampshire but could extend further south and east possibly to the I-95 corridor. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather with a 5% probability of severe weather further south in Southern New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely today. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Post Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday July 28th 2014 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Event and Recap of Sunday 7/27/14 Severe Weather

Hello to all..

..EF-2 Tornado occurs in Revere, Massachusetts causing significant damage in the center of town. Other pockets of straight-line wind damage and flash flooding occur in other parts of Southern New England on Monday rounding out a busy two day stretch of severe weather in the region..
..Additional damage and flood reports and photos can be sent as a reply to this message or to pics@nsradio.org and credit will be given to the spotter for use of the pictures/reports..
..Quiet weather expected for the next few days..

A supercell storm organized over Northern Norfolk County Massachusetts and raced through portions of Northeast Massachusetts Monday Morning. The storm caused wind damage in parts of Needham, Massachusetts. KB1TJI-Jeff Marden checked out damage in the Moseley Avenue area of Needham Massachusetts. This storm would continue to organize briefly obtaining a tornadic signature in the eastern end of Chelsea and in particular Revere, Massachusetts. The storm was tracked using the SKYWARN self-activation protocol. Within 15-20 minutes of the storm passage, the Amateur Radio SKYWARN Network detected reports of many trees an wires down and structural damage in Revere. Shortly afterwards, Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters, KB1KQW-Jim Palmer and KB1NCG-Marek Kozubal working with NWS Taunton Warning Coordination Meteorologist, Glenn Field-KB1GHX, arrived in Revere and with support of Revere Police and Fire and the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency, the survey was conducted resulting in many of the pictures seen on the WX1BOX Facebook Page.

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Operations were activated within an hour of the start of the survey and coordination was done with the survey team via Amateur Radio. In addition to this effort, N1EVH-Mike Nasleroad was able to get into the area providing additional pictures, reports and data from Revere and also checked out confirmed damage reports in Lynn which were less significant and seemed more like straightline wind at that point in time. Also, SKYWARN Spotter Nick Mollo, who was a friend in Revere, provided additional pictures. The Topsfield DPW, a follower on the WX1BOX Twitter Account, provided pictures and damage reports from the Topsfield area augmented with additional pictures from KC1AEI-Matt Knowles from North Shore SKYWARN.

While this tornado occurred, significant flash flooding affected the Boston Metro West Region Monday Morning. A number of pictures were provided of the flash flooding. Rainfall of 2.5-3.5″ in less than an hour caused this significant flash flooding in the Metro West region.

As we got into Monday Afternoon and Evening, another round of severe weather occurred affecting Northwest and North-Central Massachusetts through Southern New Hampshire with additional severe thunderstorms across North-Central Connecticut. These severe thunderstorms caused pockets of flash flooding and straight-line wind damage. Particularly hard hit were parts of Westford, Littleton and South Chelmsford as well as parts of Enfield and Somers, Connecticut. A Tornado Warning was issued for parts of Eastern Hampden and Southwest Worcester County Massachusetts but only pockets of straightline wind damage were noted. WX1BOX Amateur Radio Operations were active during this timeframe. Pictures of flash flooding and damage from the region can be seen via the following links:

WX1BOX EF1/EF2 Revere Tornado Facebook Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.819777764722910.1073741841.216287391738620&type=1

WX1BOX Needham MA Severe Thunderstorm Damage Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.819965604704126.1073741842.216287391738620&type=1

WX1BOX Metro West MA Flash Flood Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.820001504700536.1073741843.216287391738620&type=1

WX1BOX Topsfield MA Severe Thunderstorm Damage Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.820014011365952.1073741844.216287391738620&type=1

The NWS Taunton Local Storm Report on Monday’s Severe Weather Event and the Public Information Statement on the EF1/EF2 Revere Massachusetts Tornado can be seen via the following links:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Monday July 28th 2014:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407290936.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Revere Massachusetts Tornado – Monday July 28th 2014:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407282110.nous41.html

The events on Monday were after an 8 hour severe weather episode in parts of Western and Central New England on Sunday. On Sunday, a warm front made its way through Southern New England Sunday Morning into early afternoon bringing with it strong to isolated severe thunderstorms. This included a funnel cloud and minor wind damage in Springfield, MA with flooding reports and house fires from lightning in Central Massachusetts. After the warm front passed, sufficient clearing and destabilization with an impulse moving through the area resulted in another round of scattered severe thunderstorms impacting portions of Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut between 430 and 800 PM. SKYWARN Self-Activation handled the storm activity today across the region. Hardest hit areas were in the second round of storms over West Springfield, Agawam, Longmeadow and then extending into Enfield, Somers and Tolland Connecticut with pockets of wind damage reaching the Storrs/Mansfield, CT area. Any additional damage reports or pictures can be shared as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the photos posted. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and WX1BOX Facebook Page of pictures collected so far:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Sunday July 27th, 2014:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407280131.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Facebook Page Photo Album – Sunday July 27th 2014:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.819321338101886.1073741840.216287391738620&type=1

We wish to thank all Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters, local Police and Fire departments and the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency for their help and support during this active 2 days of severe weather in our region. All of us working together makes a significant difference for our local communities by providing accurate ground truth information for better warnings and forecasts and to tell the public what is actually happening on the ground.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Monday 7/28/14 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms occurred particularly in Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Sunday afternoon through early evening. The event was handled via SKYWARN Self-Activation mode from approximately 11 AM-8 PM Sunday..
..An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible Monday Morning. As we move into Monday Afternoon and Evening, another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across interior Southern New England, particularly Southern New Hampshire, interior Massachusetts and interior Connecticut and possibly Northern Rhode Island. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has maintained a 5% severe weather probability for this region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between noon-1 PM on Monday..

A warm front made its way through Southern New England Sunday Morning into early afternoon bringing with it strong to isolated severe thunderstorms. This included a funnel cloud and minor wind damage in Springfield, MA with flooding reports and house fires from lightning in Central Massachusetts. After the warm front passed, sufficient clearing and destabilization with an impulse moving through the area resulted in another round of scattered severe thunderstorms impacting portions of Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut between 430 and 800 PM. SKYWARN Self-Activation handled the storm activity today across the region. Hardest hit areas were in the second round of storms over West Springfield, Agawam, Longmeadow and then extending into Enfield, Somers and Tolland Connecticut with pockets of wind damage reaching the Storrs/Mansfield, CT area. Any additional damage reports or pictures can be shared as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the photos posted. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and WX1BOX Facebook Page of pictures collected so far:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407280131.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Facebook Page Photos:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.819321338101886.1073741840.216287391738620&type=1

As look at today’s severe weather potential, there is a round of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms ongoing with one warning issued for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm over Northeast Franklin and Southwest Cheshire County New Hampshire as of 725 AM. This should move out of the area with the possibility of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms scraping Southeast New England from a second area offshore. In between these two areas, the key item on severe thunderstorm coverage will be amount of clearing that takes place. If there is sufficient clearing and heating, that will set the stage for potential clearing and heating for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in interior Southern New England particularly in southern New Hampshire, interior Massachusetts, interior Connecticut and possibly Northern Rhode Island. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The threat timeframe is after noon on Monday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between noon-1 PM on Monday. This will be the last coordination message on today’s threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 7/28/14 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms occurred particularly in Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut this afternoon through early evening. The event was handled via SKYWARN Self-Activation mode from approximately 11 AM-8 PM today..
..Heavy Rainfall and embedded thunder are possible Monday Morning. As we move into Monday Afternoon and Evening, another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across interior Southern New England, particularly Southern New Hampshire, Central and Northeast Massachusetts. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has maintained a 5% severe weather probability for this region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely around or after noon on Monday..

A warm front made its way through Southern New England Sunday Morning into early afternoon bringing with it strong to isolated severe thunderstorms. This included a funnel cloud and minor wind damage in Springfield, MA with flooding reports and house fires from lightning in Central Massachusetts. After the warm front passed, sufficient clearing and destabilization with an impulse moving through the area resulted in another round of scattered severe thunderstorms impacting portions of Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut between 430 and 800 PM. SKYWARN Self-Activation handled the storm activity today across the region. Hardest hit areas were in the second round of storms over West Springfield, Agawam, Longmeadow and then extending into Enfield, Somers and Tolland Connecticut with pockets of wind damage reaching the Storrs/Mansfield, CT area. Any additional damage reports or pictures can be shared as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the photos posted. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and WX1BOX Facebook Page of pictures collected so far:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407280131.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Facebook Page Photos:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.819321338101886.1073741840.216287391738620&type=1

As we move into Monday, there could be a round of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms ongoing in the morning with a risk of an isolated strong thunderstorm. This should move out of the area and then set the stage for potential clearing and heating for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in interior Southern New England particularly in southeast New Hampshire, and Central and Northeast Massachusetts. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The threat timeframe is after noon on Monday as it stands now.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely around or after Noon on Monday. Another coordination message will be issued by 800 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 7/24/14-Monday 7/25/14 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Several rounds of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Monday across much of Southern New England. Exact timing of severe weather potential and rounds of potential isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and areas impacted is still uncertain. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Sunday and has placed Eastern New England in a 5% risk for severe weather Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Sunday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Sunday Afternoon and Evening and again on Monday..

A warm front will make its way through Southern New England early Sunday morning. This warm front may bring a round of strong to possibly isolated severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. After the activity Sunday Morning, another round of severe weather is possible later Sunday Afternoon and Evening but will be contingent on the following factors:

1.) Amount of clearing that occurs in the wake of any activity Sunday Morning.
2.) Locations of impulses to trigger the atmosphere presuming sufficient clearing and destabilization can occur.
3.) Activity over the mid-Atlantic and its impact on ability for strong to severe thunderstorms to form over Central and Eastern New York and Pennsylvania and traverse into Southern New England.

Wind shear profiles for Sunday will be quite favorable. If instability develops and an impulse is timed with sufficient instability and favorable wind shear values then at minimum, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will occur and there is the potential for a more widespread event. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but an isolated tornado is also possible. That being said, if the instability doesn’t develop or the timing of impulses is past max instability, the threat will be more limited.

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in Eastern New England on Monday. This will largely depend on convection Sunday and the position of impulses and the cold front through the region. This will be detailed in future coordination messages.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Sunday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Sunday Afternoon and Evening and again on Monday. Another coordination message will be issued by 1100 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday July 23rd, 2014 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across Southern New Hampshire and Interior Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts potentially extending into interior Connecticut and Rhode Island. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Southern New Hampshire, Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 300 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting into late Wednesday Evening..

Heat and humidity will be entrenched over the region on Wednesday. A cold front will approach the region from the west and north over Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Heating will allow for destabilization of the atmosphere. The timing of the cold front and the strength of the wind shear profiles over the area remain in question but based on the past few model runs conditions appear to be sufficient for for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms being likely especially across Southern New Hampshire, Interior Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts and could extend into interior Connecticut and extreme Northwest Rhode Island. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk of Severe Weather for Southern New Hampshire, Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The timeframe for severe weather is from 3-11 PM Wednesday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 300 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting into late Wednesday Evening. This will be the last coordination message on the severe weather potential for today. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday July 23rd 2014 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely across Southern New Hampshire and Interior Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts potentially extending into interior Connecticut and Rhode Island. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southern New Hampshire, Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night..

Heat and humidity has returned to the region today and will increase a bit further on Wednesday. A cold front will approach the region from the west and north over Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Heating will allow for destabilization of the atmosphere. The one question will be the timing of the cold front and the strength of the wind shear profiles over the area. Latest model runs have brought in a bit more wind shear for the area which would allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms being possible to likely especially across Southern New Hampshire, Interior Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts and could extend into interior Connecticut and Rhode Island. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southern New Hampshire, Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The timeframe for severe weather is from 3-11 PM Wednesday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night. The next coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #5 – Tuesday 7/15/14-Wednesday 7/16/14 – Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

Hello to all..

..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk of Severe Weather and expanded it eastward into Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and most of Connecticut with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Tuesday. The highest risk with thunderstorms at this time is heavy rainfall and flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and possibly smaller rivers and streams, however, strong to Damaging winds, and hail are also threats with an isolated weak tornado also possible depending on the timing of the front and amount of cloud cover over the area for today..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from today through Wednesday afternoon for all of the NWS Taunton coverage area of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Northern Connecticut and Southern New Hampshire except for Cape Cod and the Islands.
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM Tuesday Afternoon lasting through late Tuesday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Morning for flash flood potential especially in Eastern New England..

On Monday, the severe weather threat stayed south of the NWS Taunton coverage area. Heavy downpours during the evening commute caused some minor street flooding issues in the Boston area. Overnight, heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding and flash flooding remain confined to Southern Connecticut.

As we move into Tuesday, the slow moving cold front will continue to approach Eastern New York and New England. There will continue to be warm and humid conditions over the area. The extent of the severe weather potential will be determined by the following:

1.) Amount of cloud cover over the area for today. Overnight showers and thunderstorms have largely moved out of the area.
2.) Position of the cold front and its forcing mechanism and the timing of the front over the area.

At 1040 AM, satellite imagery showed breaks in the clouds over portions of Eastern New York and Western New England. There was no rapid, solid clearing occurring over the area but some sun is getting through the clouds offering some level of instability and destabilization. Moisture profiles and wind shear profiles are quite favorable for severe weather but the level of instability remains in question. Doppler Radar at 1040 AM showed an area of showers and thunderstorms over Central New York and Central Pennsylvania moving east-northeastwards and as this gradually gets closer to Eastern New York and Western New England, that could be a focal point for convection depending on its movement and timing into our coverage area. At this time, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are the most likely coverage we will see versus a widespread outbreak but if more clearing occurs, that could change the situation rapidly. At this time, the main threat for thunderstorms is the flash flood threat and heavy rainfall with flash flooding of urban areas and possibly small rivers and streams, however, noting the breaks in the clouds in the slight risk area, there is a secondary threat for strong to damaging winds, hail and possibly a weak tornado over localized areas. This will continue to be monitored closely.

As noted above, regardless of these two factors, thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding of poor drainage and urban areas and smaller rivers and streams are the highest potential weather hazard in localized areas over the NWS Taunton coverage area. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include the entire NWS Taunton coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands through Wednesday Afternoon. Heavy rainfall of 1-3″ with localized higher amounts where thunderstorms back build or train over the same area are possible. The flash flood threat will linger through early Wednesday Afternoon particularly over Eastern New England as the slow moving cold front finally pushes through Southern New England. Any severe weather potential Tuesday Afternoon through Evening will evolve into more of a heavy rainfall threat overnight Tuesday into Wednesday Morning but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm can not be ruled out over this time period either.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM Tuesday Afternoon lasting through late Tuesday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Morning for flash flood potential especially in Eastern New England. The next coordination message will be issued by 1100 PM Tuesday Evening pending the evolution of SKYWARN Operations over the course of Tuesday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407151446.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/7_15_14_am_graphic.jpg

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #4 – Monday Evening 7/14/14-Wednesday 7/16/14 – Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Threat overnight is more for heavy rainfall and flash flooding with a low risk for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with strong winds possible..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded portions of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut from the Connecticut River Valley west in a slight risk for severe weather with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Tuesday. The highest risk with thunderstorms at this time is heavy rainfall and flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and possibly smaller rivers and streams, however, strong to Damaging winds, and hail are also threats with an isolated weak tornado also possible depending on the timing of the front and amount of cloud cover over the area for Tuesday..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Monday Evening through Wednesday afternoon for all of the NWS Taunton coverage area of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut. A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Southern New Hampshire from Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Afternoon..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton were executed for a few hours Monday Evening. SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor flash flood potential overnight. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time between 1-4 PM Tuesday Afternoon lasting through late Tuesday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Morning for flash flood potential especially in Eastern New England..

On Monday, the severe weather threat stayed south of the NWS Taunton coverage area. Heavy downpours during the evening commute caused some minor street flooding issues in the Boston area. Overnight, there is the potential for heavier thunderstorms with the main threat of flash flooding to potentially effect portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with strong winds is possible but is a low risk. Given the timeframe for this may be as late as around midnight and the overnight hours, SKYWARN Self-Activation will be utilized to monitor the activity overnight.

As we move into Tuesday, the slow moving cold front will continue to approach Eastern New York and New England. There will continue to be warm and humid conditions over the area. The extent of the severe weather potential will be determined by the following:

1.) Amount of cloud cover over the area and any overnight showers and thunderstorms that may linger into Tuesday Morning.
2.) Position of the cold front and its forcing mechanism and the timing of the front over the area.

If there is sufficient clearing for destabilization and the front is close enough for forcing, that would mean a greater potential for severe weather in the region. If cloud cover remains over the area or the forcing from the cold front does not come in around or near peak heating, then the severe weather threat will be more muted. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded portions of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut from the Connecticut River Valley west in a slight risk for severe weather with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Tuesday.

Regardless of these two factors, thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding of poor drainage and urban areas and smaller rivers and streams are the highest potential weather hazard in localized areas over the NWS Taunton coverage area. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include the entire NWS Taunton coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands through Wednesday Afternoon. The start time of the Flash Flood Watch for Southern New Hampshire is Tuesday Morning lasting through Wednesday Afternoon. Heavy rainfall of 1-3″ with localized higher amounts where thunderstorms back build or train over the same area are possible. The flash flood threat will linger through early Wednesday Afternoon particularly over Eastern New England as the slow moving cold front finally pushes through Southern New England. Any severe weather potential Tuesday Afternoon through Evening will evolve into more of a heavy rainfall threat overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

The next coordination message will be issued by 1100 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement and SPC’s Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Monday 7/14/14-Wednesday 7/16/14 – Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely across much of Southern New England on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a slight risk of severe weather for Connecticut, Rhode Island and Western and Central Massachusetts with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats though an isolated weak tornado is also possible..
..A Flash Flood Watch Has Been Issued from 2 PM This Afternoon through late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut and Hampden, Hampshire, Franklin, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for the potential of back building thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. This Flash Flood Watch could be extended eastward as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday..
..Additional potential exists for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms on Tuesday as SPC has much of Southern New England in a 5% risk for severe weather. This will be contingent on cloud cover and the prior day’s convective activity. The threat could then continue for Eastern New England into Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 400 PM and lasting through late Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is also likely on Tuesday and possible on Wednesday..

Last night saw severe weather stay to the west of the NWS Taunton coverage area over in Litchfield County Connecticut and Eastern New York but thunderstorms with heavy rainfall occurred in some parts of the NWS Taunton coverage area. Southwick, MA received 2.1″ of rain for the event with 1.3″ of rain coming in just a 70 minute period.

As we move into today, a slow moving cold front will be approaching Eastern New York and New England. At 900 AM, satellite imagery showed considerable breaks in the clouds over Southern New England. There will be warm and humid conditions over the area that will create a level of instability and with sufficiently strong wind shear profiles. As the slow moving cold front approaches the region, that will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the area. The timing is a bit uncertain though it now appears that thunderstorm development is now expected to hold off until after 400 PM though this will be monitored closely. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk of severe Weather for Connecticut, Rhode Island and Western and Central Massachusetts with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats though an isolated weak tornado is also possible.

Any thunderstorms today across portions of Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall and if they back build over the same area, they could produce flash flooding. This could occur from Monday Afternoon through late Tuesday Night. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued from 2 PM this afternoon through late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut and Hampden, Hampshire, Franklin, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for the potential of back building thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. This Flash Flood Watch could be extended eastward as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday.

For Tuesday, SPC continues a 5% risk of severe weather across much of Southern New England and any thunderstorms will have the potential for heavy rainfall ad flooding. Tuesday has the potential to be a repeat of Monday with the severe weather threat potentially evolving into a flash flood threat as we get into Tuesday Evening into Wednesday Morning. This will be contingent on cloud cover and the prior day’s convection. Further details on the threat for Tuesday will be defined in future severe weather coordination messages. There may also be a threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms into Wednesday across parts of Eastern New England depending on the timing and speed of the slow moving cold front as well. This will also be discussed in future coordination messages.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 400 PM and lasting through late Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is also likely on Tuesday and possible on Wednesday. This will be the last coordination message issued on Monday’s severe weather potential. The next coordination message will be issued by 1130 PM Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic and SPC’s Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/2014.07.14_AM_Fcst.png

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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