Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 7/24/14-Monday 7/25/14 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Several rounds of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Monday across much of Southern New England. Exact timing of severe weather potential and rounds of potential isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and areas impacted is still uncertain. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Sunday and has placed Eastern New England in a 5% risk for severe weather Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Sunday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Sunday Afternoon and Evening and again on Monday..

A warm front will make its way through Southern New England early Sunday morning. This warm front may bring a round of strong to possibly isolated severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. After the activity Sunday Morning, another round of severe weather is possible later Sunday Afternoon and Evening but will be contingent on the following factors:

1.) Amount of clearing that occurs in the wake of any activity Sunday Morning.
2.) Locations of impulses to trigger the atmosphere presuming sufficient clearing and destabilization can occur.
3.) Activity over the mid-Atlantic and its impact on ability for strong to severe thunderstorms to form over Central and Eastern New York and Pennsylvania and traverse into Southern New England.

Wind shear profiles for Sunday will be quite favorable. If instability develops and an impulse is timed with sufficient instability and favorable wind shear values then at minimum, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will occur and there is the potential for a more widespread event. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but an isolated tornado is also possible. That being said, if the instability doesn’t develop or the timing of impulses is past max instability, the threat will be more limited.

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in Eastern New England on Monday. This will largely depend on convection Sunday and the position of impulses and the cold front through the region. This will be detailed in future coordination messages.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Sunday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Sunday Afternoon and Evening and again on Monday. Another coordination message will be issued by 1100 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Several rounds of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Monday across much of Southern New England. Exact timing of severe weather potential and rounds of potential isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and areas impacted is still uncertain. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Sunday and has placed Eastern New England in a 5% risk for severe weather Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Sunday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Sunday Afternoon and Evening and again on Monday..

A warm front will make its way through Southern New England early Sunday morning. This warm front may bring a round of strong to possibly isolated severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. After the activity Sunday Morning, another round of severe weather is possible later Sunday Afternoon and Evening but will be contingent on the following factors:

1.) Amount of clearing that occurs in the wake of any activity Sunday Morning.
2.) Locations of impulses to trigger the atmosphere presuming sufficient clearing and destabilization can occur.
3.) Activity over the mid-Atlantic and its impact on ability for strong to severe thunderstorms to form over Central and Eastern New York and Pennsylvania and traverse into Southern New England.

Wind shear profiles for Sunday will be quite favorable. If instability develops and an impulse is timed with sufficient instability and favorable wind shear values then at minimum, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will occur and there is the potential for a more widespread event. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but an isolated tornado is also possible. That being said, if the instability doesn’t develop or the timing of impulses is past max instability, the threat will be more limited.

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in Eastern New England on Monday. This will largely depend on convection Sunday and the position of impulses and the cold front through the region. This will be detailed in future coordination messages.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Sunday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Sunday Afternoon and Evening and again on Monday. Another coordination message will be issued by 1100 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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