Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday July 31st 2014 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely today especially in Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts but could extend as far south and east as the I-95 corridor. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather with a 5% probability of severe weather further south in Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely today..

A trough will approach the region from the north and west today. While the best forcing and strongest part of the trough will be in Northern New England and while temperatures and humidity values won’t be particularly high, temperatures in the upper level of the atmosphere will be quite cold and the trough’s southern extent should provide a trigger mechanism. This temperature difference aloft versus the surface will create instability with quite favorable wind shear profiles with that trough as a trigger mechanism. This should set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms today particularly in Northwest Massachusetts and Southwest New Hampshire but could extend further south and east possibly to the I-95 corridor. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather with a 5% probability of severe weather further south in Southern New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely today. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely today especially in Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts but could extend as far south and east as the I-95 corridor. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather with a 5% probability of severe weather further south in Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely today..

A trough will approach the region from the north and west today. While the best forcing and strongest part of the trough will be in Northern New England and while temperatures and humidity values won’t be particularly high, temperatures in the upper level of the atmosphere will be quite cold and the trough’s southern extent should provide a trigger mechanism. This temperature difference aloft versus the surface will create instability with quite favorable wind shear profiles with that trough as a trigger mechanism. This should set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms today particularly in Northwest Massachusetts and Southwest New Hampshire but could extend further south and east possibly to the I-95 corridor. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather with a 5% probability of severe weather further south in Southern New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely today. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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