Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday September 6th, 2014 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

Hello to all..

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely across much of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. An isolated weak tornado as a secondary threat cannot be ruled out over portions of Southern New England given the severe weather setup over the region. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to have much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Saturday Afternoon and Evening..
..Threat timeframe is anytime after Noon in western areas and after 400 PM in eastern areas of Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by Noon today..

Hot and humid conditions remain over the region today. Low stratus clouds will burn off over the course of the morning from northwest to southeast. This will allow heating and destabilization to commence rapidly over the region. A strong cold front will then move across New England during the timeframe of peak heating Saturday. We currently expect sufficient sunshine for heating and destabilization over the region. Wind shear profiles are somewhat marginal with the stronger winds behind the front but are at reasonable levels presuming sufficient heating and destabilization and the humid air mass in place to promote water loading of thunderstorms and set the stage for scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the primary threats. An isolated weak tornado cannot be ruled out as a secondary threat given latest model trends and the severe weather setup over the region.

The thunderstorm mode appears to be in the form of one or two broken lines of strong to severe thunderstorms or a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms followed by a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms will have the potential for torrential rain and urban/poor drainage to flash flood potential particularly if they are slow moving or train over the same area. The timing of severe weather is any time after noon in western areas and after 400 PM in eastern areas of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to have much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Saturday Afternoon and Evening.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by noon today. This will be the last coordination message on today’s severe weather and flash flood potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic on this potential severe weather event:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/2014.09.06_AM.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely across much of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. An isolated weak tornado as a secondary threat cannot be ruled out over portions of Southern New England given the severe weather setup over the region. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to have much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Saturday Afternoon and Evening..
..Threat timeframe is anytime after Noon in western areas and after 400 PM in eastern areas of Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by Noon today..

Hot and humid conditions remain over the region today. Low stratus clouds will burn off over the course of the morning from northwest to southeast. This will allow heating and destabilization to commence rapidly over the region. A strong cold front will then move across New England during the timeframe of peak heating Saturday. We currently expect sufficient sunshine for heating and destabilization over the region. Wind shear profiles are somewhat marginal with the stronger winds behind the front but are at reasonable levels presuming sufficient heating and destabilization and the humid air mass in place to promote water loading of thunderstorms and set the stage for scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the primary threats. An isolated weak tornado cannot be ruled out as a secondary threat given latest model trends and the severe weather setup over the region.

The thunderstorm mode appears to be in the form of one or two broken lines of strong to severe thunderstorms or a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms followed by a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms will have the potential for torrential rain and urban/poor drainage to flash flood potential particularly if they are slow moving or train over the same area. The timing of severe weather is any time after noon in western areas and after 400 PM in eastern areas of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to have much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Saturday Afternoon and Evening.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by noon today. This will be the last coordination message on today’s severe weather and flash flood potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic on this potential severe weather event:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/2014.09.06_AM.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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