Storm Coordination Message #1 -Saturday Late Afternoon 11/1/14-Sunday Morning 11/2/14 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Coastal Storm to Impact the Region with strong to damaging winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding in East Coastal Massachusetts and heavy rainfall in Eastern New England with the possibility of precipitation ending as a brief period of light wet snow. Main Storm Impacts Saturday late afternoon through Sunday Morning..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for Eastern and Southern Plymouth Counties Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 5 PM Saturday to 4 PM Sunday for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A High Wind Watch remains in effect from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning. In the watch area, sustained winds of 20-30 MPH are expected with wind gusts to at least 50 MPH with the potential for winds to gust to greater than 58 MPH and higher sustained winds but this is not yet certain and winds may fall just below this criteria. Regardless, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are possible in the High Wind Watch area..
..Strong winds will potentially affect portions of Western and Central New England on Sunday as the storm departs and the gradient tightens and cold air continues moves into the region..
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts from Saturday Evening into Sunday Morning for minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide Saturday Evening and Sunday Morning..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 4 PM Saturday lasting through late evening and could potentially reactivate on Sunday for the strong to damaging wind potential..

A coastal storm will track southeast of New England but close enough to cause strong to damaging winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding in East Coastal Massachusetts and heavy rainfall in Eastern New England. The rain may end as a brief period of light wet snow but the real hazards from this storm system are the strong to damaging winds, minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding and heavy rainfall. Main storm impacts are Saturday late afternoon through Sunday Morning. The headlines denote the current storm hazards. It is noted that for western and central portions of Southern New England, the potential exists for strong winds during the day Sunday which may prompt the issuance of wind advisories in future forecasts.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 4 PM Saturday lasting through late evening and could potentially reactivate on Sunday for the strong to damaging wind potential. Another coordination message will be issued by 830 AM Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Special Announcement: Prevailing Winds SKYWARN Newsletter – Fall 2014 Edition

Hello to all..

The Fall 2014 edition of the Prevailing Winds SKYWARN Newsletter is now available. Links to the Fall 2014 Prevailing Winds SKYWARN Newsletter appear below:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/Iss4vol2_newsletteroctober2014.pdf
http://www.weather.gov/media/box/officePrograms/skywarn/prevailing_winds/Iss4vol2.pdf

An archive of Prevailing Winds SKYWARN Newsletters can be seen via the following link:
http://www.wx1box.org/node/3288

There are many interesting stories in the Fall 2014 Prevailing Winds SKYWARN Newsletter including a tribute story to N1FY-Carl Aveni and his stepping down from WX1BOX operations after 18 years, a summary of the 2014 Summer Severe Weather Season and a story on the Revere EF-2 Tornado. There are also several other stories of interest in this Fall 2014 edition of the Prevailing Winds SKYWARN Newsletter.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday Evening 10/22/14-Thursday Morning 10/23/14 Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Heavy Rainfall and possibly strong winds will affect portions of Southern New England Wednesday Evening through Thursday Morning..
..A Flood Watch is in effect Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning for Hillsborough County NH and Essex, Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Suffolk, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts. Widespread 1.5-2.5″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts to 4″ are likely in the Flood Watch area. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly some small stream/river flooding..
..Strong wind gusts of up to and around 40 MPH coupled with the heavy rainfall may result in isolated pockets of minor wind damage in parts of the flood watch area especially near the coast..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this time period for potential flooding reports and any isolated wind damage reports. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if flooding issues are widespread enough..

An upper level storm system and coastal low has set the stage for the potential for heavy rainfall and strong winds over portions of Southern New England. The headlines of this note indicate the potential issues with the storm system over the NWS Taunton coverage area. SKYWARN Self-Activation will be likely to monitor this time period for to monitor for potential flooding reports and any isolated wind damage reports. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if flooding issues are widespread enough. Another coordination message will be posted Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement and NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 10/16/14 Heavy Rainfall/Strong to Damaging Wind Potential

Hello to all..

..Heavy convective showers and thunderstorms today and tonight will pose the threat of urban and poor drainage flooding and a widespread rainfall of 1-2″ inches with higher amounts possible. These convective showers and thunderstorms will also have the potential to bring strong to possibly damaging winds to the surface over portions of Southern New England with isolated to scattered pockets of wind damage possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely today and tonight to monitor conditions in the region. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if flooding and/or any pockets of wind damage are widespread enough in the region..

At 520 AM, Doppler Radar was showing a conveyor of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms over Eastern New York and extreme Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut through Long Island and New Jersey and extending several hundred miles offshore. The area of rainfall was moving from southeast to Northwest while expanding eastward off the coastal waters. Heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms will encompass much of Western New England within the NWS Taunton Coverage area after 7 AM today lasting through mid afternoon and then spread eastward in the mid-afternoon to the evening hours. Widespread 1-2″ of rainfall will higher amounts will be possible in areas where heavy rain is able to train over the same locations. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding. In addition, there will be strong winds aloft and this may allow for isolated to scattered pockets of wind damage where the heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms are able to drag those winds down to the surface.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely today and tonight to monitor conditions in the region. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if flooding and/or any pockets of wind damage are widespread enough in the region. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s storm. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Post Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Severe Weather Event – Wednesday October 8th 2014

Hello to all..

..Significant 100 MPH microburst impacts Easthampton, Mass early Wednesday Morning around 500 AM. An additional significant straightline wind damage event impacted the Joy road area of Colrain Mass during a similar timeframe Wednesday Morning with many trees down and homes and cars damage. Any pictures of damage from these areas or from other areas that were hard hit can be sent as a reply to this message or sent to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..
..An updated post severe weather coordination message may be sent out if new information and pictures becomes available. Below are damage pictures from Easthampton and Southampton, Mass, the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and NWS Taunton Public Information Statement..

NWS Taunton Facebook Photo Album – Easthampton, Mass Microburst:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.860070037360349.1073741851.216287391738620&type=1

NWS Taunton Facebook Photo Album – Southampton, Mass Wind Damage:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.860092350691451.1073741852.216287391738620&type=1#

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Easthampton MA Microburst:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Late Tuesday Night 10/7/14-Wednesday Morning 10/8/14 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible to likely over much of Southern New England early Wednesday Morning from 2-10 AM. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but an isolated tornado as a secondary threat cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a 5% severe weather risk through midday Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators are encouraged to set their NOAA All Hazards Radio or any cell phone applications that can alert them to warnings during the overnight period. There is some uncertainty with this severe weather potential for early Wednesday Morning but there are concerns for severe weather potential during a time period when many will be sleeping or getting ready to start their work day and start their morning commute. Keep your situational awareness high during this period by taking these steps..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 6-10 AM for Southern Bristol County Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide caused by strong southerly winds and an extended southerly fetch may cause minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning over South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 AM Wednesday Morning likely lasting through around 10-11 AM..

A somewhat unusual setup for severe weather is still expected over the region overnight into Wednesday Morning. There hasn’t been many changes to the latest model runs regarding the severe weather setup. Given the time of day this event is occurring, SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators are encouraged to set their NOAA All Hazards Radio or any cell phone applications that can alert them to warnings during the overnight period. There is some uncertainty with this severe weather potential for early Wednesday Morning but there are concerns for severe weather potential during a time period when many will be sleeping or getting ready to start their work day. Keep your situational awareness high during this period by taking these steps.

Southern New England will be in the warm sector and a strong cold front will move into the region overnight through Wednesday Morning. Despite the cold front coming through during overnight hours into Wednesday Morning which is typically an unfavorable time of day for severe weather potential, wind shear values will be very strong. Instability levels will not be terribly strong but models are indicating the potential for just enough instability for a potential low-topped squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms or a short line or two of strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats but a secondary threat for an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if the storms are more discreet in nature and don’t end up in a line configuration. The threat timeframe is currently expected to be after 2 AM Wednesday Morning through 10-11 AM Wednesday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a 5% severe weather risk through midday Wednesday.

The uncertainty in the overnight severe weather potential will be with how much instability is truly realized despite the unfavorable time of day and if the mesoscale processes can tap into the very strong winds aloft. The instability and mesoscale processes will determine whether the event is more heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms with strong wind gusts causing isolated pockets of wind damage versus a threat for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms producing more concentrated and more significant areas of damage via a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms with the possibility of an isolated tornado. The situation bears close watching as models suggest a stronger severe weather scenario.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 6-10 AM for Southern Bristol County Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide caused by strong southerly winds and an extended southerly fetch may cause minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning over South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 AM Wednesday Morning likely lasting through around 10-11 AM. This will be the last coordination message on this potential severe weather threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement on the severe weather potential, NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and the SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement – Severe Weather Potential:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1410072237.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Late Tuesday Night 10/7/14-Wednesday Morning 10/8/14 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely during the overnight hours Tuesday Night into early Wednesday Morning over much of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but an isolated tornado as a secondary threat cannot be ruled out. Threat timeframe is after 2 AM Wednesday Morning through about 10-11 AM Wednesday Morning..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed South Coastal New England in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather through 800 AM Wednesday Morning and much of the area in a 5% severe weather risk through midday Wednesday..
..Strong southerly winds and an extended southerly fetch may cause minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning over South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though given the timeframe this may be handled via self-activation..

A somewhat unusual setup for severe weather is expected over the region overnight into Wednesday Morning. Southern New England will be in the warm sector and a strong cold front will move into the region overnight through Wednesday Morning. Despite the cold front coming through during overnight hours into Wednesday Morning which is typically an unfavorable time of day for severe weather potential, wind shear values will be very strong. Instability levels will not be terribly strong but models are indicating the potential for just enough instability for a potential low-topped squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms or a short line or two of strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats but a secondary threat for an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if the storms are more discreet in nature and don’t end up in a line configuration. The threat timeframe is currently expected to be after 2 AM Wednesday Morning through 10-11 AM Wednesday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed South Coastal New England in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather through 800 AM Wednesday Morning and much of the area in a 5% severe weather risk through midday Wednesday.

Strong southerly winds and an extended southerly fetch may cause minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning over South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. A Coastal Flood Advisory or Coastal Flood Statement may be issued in later forecasts depending on the extent of this threat to coastal areas for the Wednesday Morning high tide.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though given the timeframe this may be handled via self-activation. Another coordination message will be posted by 930 PM Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement on possible minor coastal flooding for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island Wednesday Morning and the SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement – Minor Coastal Flooding for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday October 4th, 2014 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..A Cold front will bring heavy showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms. Wind shear values aloft are strong with turning in the atmosphere but instability parameters are extremely weak. There is a very low probability that a thunderstorm or two may become strong to severe and produce strong to damaging wind gusts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the potential for today. This will be the only coordination message on today’s severe weather potential unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday Afternoon 10/1/14-Thursday Morning 10/2/14 Heavy Rainfall/Flood Potential

Hello to all..

..Despite Dry Antecedent Conditions over the past 2 months, portions of Southeast New England could see heavy rainfall in a short period of time with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and basement flooding issues in areas that potentially receive heavy rainfall..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties from 5 PM Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning. Localized heavy rainfall amounts of 3″ or more are possible in the watch area within an area of 1-2″ of rainfall. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur during the overnight hours..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding in Southeast New England late this afternoon through Thursday Morning..

An upper level low pressure system will tap into moisture over the Atlantic Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday Morning. This will set the stage for potential heavy rainfall across Southeast Massachusetts. While conditions have been dry over Southeast Massachusetts for the last 2 months, the potential of heavy rainfall of 3″ or more in localized areas and that rain falling in a relatively short period of time will potentially result in urban/poor drainage and basement flooding in some locations. A Flood Watch is now in effect for Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties from 5 PM Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur during the overnight hours.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding in Southeast New England late this afternoon through Thursday Morning. This will be the only coordination message on this potential event unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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