Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Late Tuesday Night 10/7/14-Wednesday Morning 10/8/14 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely during the overnight hours Tuesday Night into early Wednesday Morning over much of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but an isolated tornado as a secondary threat cannot be ruled out. Threat timeframe is after 2 AM Wednesday Morning through about 10-11 AM Wednesday Morning..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed South Coastal New England in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather through 800 AM Wednesday Morning and much of the area in a 5% severe weather risk through midday Wednesday..
..Strong southerly winds and an extended southerly fetch may cause minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning over South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though given the timeframe this may be handled via self-activation..

A somewhat unusual setup for severe weather is expected over the region overnight into Wednesday Morning. Southern New England will be in the warm sector and a strong cold front will move into the region overnight through Wednesday Morning. Despite the cold front coming through during overnight hours into Wednesday Morning which is typically an unfavorable time of day for severe weather potential, wind shear values will be very strong. Instability levels will not be terribly strong but models are indicating the potential for just enough instability for a potential low-topped squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms or a short line or two of strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats but a secondary threat for an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if the storms are more discreet in nature and don’t end up in a line configuration. The threat timeframe is currently expected to be after 2 AM Wednesday Morning through 10-11 AM Wednesday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed South Coastal New England in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather through 800 AM Wednesday Morning and much of the area in a 5% severe weather risk through midday Wednesday.

Strong southerly winds and an extended southerly fetch may cause minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning over South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. A Coastal Flood Advisory or Coastal Flood Statement may be issued in later forecasts depending on the extent of this threat to coastal areas for the Wednesday Morning high tide.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though given the timeframe this may be handled via self-activation. Another coordination message will be posted by 930 PM Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement on possible minor coastal flooding for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island Wednesday Morning and the SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement – Minor Coastal Flooding for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely during the overnight hours Tuesday Night into early Wednesday Morning over much of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but an isolated tornado as a secondary threat cannot be ruled out. Threat timeframe is after 2 AM Wednesday Morning through about 10-11 AM Wednesday Morning..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed South Coastal New England in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather through 800 AM Wednesday Morning and much of the area in a 5% severe weather risk through midday Wednesday..
..Strong southerly winds and an extended southerly fetch may cause minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning over South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though given the timeframe this may be handled via self-activation..

A somewhat unusual setup for severe weather is expected over the region overnight into Wednesday Morning. Southern New England will be in the warm sector and a strong cold front will move into the region overnight through Wednesday Morning. Despite the cold front coming through during overnight hours into Wednesday Morning which is typically an unfavorable time of day for severe weather potential, wind shear values will be very strong. Instability levels will not be terribly strong but models are indicating the potential for just enough instability for a potential low-topped squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms or a short line or two of strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats but a secondary threat for an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if the storms are more discreet in nature and don’t end up in a line configuration. The threat timeframe is currently expected to be after 2 AM Wednesday Morning through 10-11 AM Wednesday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed South Coastal New England in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather through 800 AM Wednesday Morning and much of the area in a 5% severe weather risk through midday Wednesday.

Strong southerly winds and an extended southerly fetch may cause minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning over South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. A Coastal Flood Advisory or Coastal Flood Statement may be issued in later forecasts depending on the extent of this threat to coastal areas for the Wednesday Morning high tide.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though given the timeframe this may be handled via self-activation. Another coordination message will be posted by 930 PM Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement on possible minor coastal flooding for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island Wednesday Morning and the SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement – Minor Coastal Flooding for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Leave a Reply