Storm Coordination Message #4 – Wednesday Morning 11/26/14-Thanksgiving Morning 11/27/14 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Coastal Storm will affect the region Wednesday into Thanksgiving Morning with strong to damaging winds along the coast line and the potential for heavy snowfall in the interior and heavy rainfall possibly changing to snow before ending across the coastal plain north and west of the Cape Cod Canal..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 7 AM Wednesday Morning Through 7 AM Thursday Morning for Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Northern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts and all of Southern New Hampshire for 6-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Wednesday Morning through 7 AM Thursday Morning for Windham County Connecticut, Central Middlesex, Western Essex and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for 6-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible and a trace of ice..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 7 AM Wednesday Morning through 7 AM Thursday Morning for Eastern Essex, Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex, and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts and Providence and Kent Counties of Rhode Island for 3-6″ of snow along with a trace of ice. This is the area with the lowest confidence in terms of snowfall amounts..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon through 3 AM Thursday Morning for sustained winds 25-35 MPH with gusts to 50 to possibly 55 MPH possible. Areas north and west of the Wind Advisory area in Southeast New England will likely see wind gusts to 40 MPH. These winds have the potential to cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..Locations in the Winter Storm Warning area and possibly the Winter Weather Advisory area will be monitored closely not only for the potential of significant travel impacts (worst in the mid-afternoon/evening) but also for the potential of isolated tree and wire damage due to the snow likely being of a heavy and wet consistency. Areas outside of the Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory issuance north and west of the Cape Cod Canal may see heavy rainfall change to a period of snow or mixed precipitation before the storm ends Thursday Morning.
..Coastal flooding is currently not expected due to lower astronomical tides and the short duration of the strong winds at the coast. Heavy rainfall in Southeast New England may lead to urban and poor drainage flooding in the typical locations..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 9 AM Wednesday lasting through late Wednesday Night for this coastal storm as the onset of precipitation is earlier than previously expected..
..Storm related pictures/video of snowfall and damage can be sent to our Facebook and Twitter feeds, as a reply to this message or to the pics@nsrdio.org email address with credit given to the spotter and the pictures and video shared with the media and emergency management unless otherwise indicated..

A coastal storm will affect one of the busiest travel days of the year with heavy snowfall in the interior and heavy rainfall changing to snow over portions of Eastern New England north and west of the Cape Cod Canal. The headlines of the coordination message depict the current threats. Computer model runs have been in good agreement but its noted that 18z American model runs have trended a bit warmer and trended a bit further west with the storm center from near or outside the 40 North/70 West benchmark to near Nantucket or inside the 40 North/70 West benchmark which may affect precipitation type and accumulation amounts in the transitional zone area in the Boston-Providence corridor and Route 128 corridor and may bring some mixed precipitation to the eastern areas of the Winter Storm Warning area. This is only one model run and may not constitute a trend but this will be monitored closely. A Wind Advisory has replaced the High Wind Watch for Eastern Plymouth County and Cape Cod and the Islands from 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon through 3 AM Thursday Morning. This is a higher end wind advisory with wind gusts to 50 or possibly even 55 MPH possible and there is a chance of even higher wind gusts. These winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in the coastal plain. In addition to potential for significant travel impacts in the Winter Storm Watch/Warning areas, the potential for isolated tree and wire damage due to the snow being heavy and wet will also need to be monitored. Coastal flooding is currently not expected due to lower astronomical tides and the short duration of the strong winds at the coast. Heavy rainfall in Southeast New England may lead to urban and poor drainage flooding in the typical locations.

While the storm is now under 24 hours away from impacts, small deviations in track, speed, intensity of the system and the amount of cold air that is drawn into the system can still cause deviations to the current thinking and forecast particularly in the Boston to Providence corridor and eastern areas of the Winter Storm Warnings currently in place. Future model runs could cause changes in the forecast if the American models depiction at 18z becomes more of a trend or the current forecast could be supported if it is just one model run that shows a slightly closer track and more warm air wrapped into the system. Future model runs may continue to affect the current slate of warnings and advisories in place and expected snowfall amounts over Southern New England.

Precipitation type and changeover information and where frozen precipitation is accumulating (paved surfaces and grassy surfaces or just grassy surfaces) will be very critical to this storm in addition to snow accumulation information. Also, if your elevation is known, that will also be helpful to draw any delineation that may be based on elevation.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 9 AM Wednesday Morning lasting through late Wednesday Evening. The next coordination message will be issued if time allows by 830 AM Wednesday Morning. Storm related pictures/video of snowfall and damage can be sent to our Facebook and Twitter feeds, as a reply to this message or to the pics@nsrdio.org email address with credit given to the spotter and the pictures and video shared with the media and emergency management unless otherwise indicated. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Facebook Posting of a graphical briefing including graphical snowfall amounts:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Storm Briefing Via Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.718728341554873/718727831554924/?type=1&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Coastal Storm will affect the region Wednesday into Thanksgiving Morning with strong to damaging winds along the coast line and the potential for heavy snowfall in the interior and heavy rainfall possibly changing to snow before ending across the coastal plain north and west of the Cape Cod Canal..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 7 AM Wednesday Morning Through 7 AM Thursday Morning for Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Northern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts and all of Southern New Hampshire for 6-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Wednesday Morning through 7 AM Thursday Morning for Windham County Connecticut, Central Middlesex, Western Essex and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for 6-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible and a trace of ice..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 7 AM Wednesday Morning through 7 AM Thursday Morning for Eastern Essex, Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex, and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts and Providence and Kent Counties of Rhode Island for 3-6″ of snow along with a trace of ice. This is the area with the lowest confidence in terms of snowfall amounts..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon through 3 AM Thursday Morning for sustained winds 25-35 MPH with gusts to 50 to possibly 55 MPH possible. Areas north and west of the Wind Advisory area in Southeast New England will likely see wind gusts to 40 MPH. These winds have the potential to cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..Locations in the Winter Storm Warning area and possibly the Winter Weather Advisory area will be monitored closely not only for the potential of significant travel impacts (worst in the mid-afternoon/evening) but also for the potential of isolated tree and wire damage due to the snow likely being of a heavy and wet consistency. Areas outside of the Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory issuance north and west of the Cape Cod Canal may see heavy rainfall change to a period of snow or mixed precipitation before the storm ends Thursday Morning.
..Coastal flooding is currently not expected due to lower astronomical tides and the short duration of the strong winds at the coast. Heavy rainfall in Southeast New England may lead to urban and poor drainage flooding in the typical locations..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 9 AM Wednesday lasting through late Wednesday Night for this coastal storm as the onset of precipitation is earlier than previously expected..
..Storm related pictures/video of snowfall and damage can be sent to our Facebook and Twitter feeds, as a reply to this message or to the pics@nsrdio.org email address with credit given to the spotter and the pictures and video shared with the media and emergency management unless otherwise indicated..

A coastal storm will affect one of the busiest travel days of the year with heavy snowfall in the interior and heavy rainfall changing to snow over portions of Eastern New England north and west of the Cape Cod Canal. The headlines of the coordination message depict the current threats. Computer model runs have been in good agreement but its noted that 18z American model runs have trended a bit warmer and trended a bit further west with the storm center from near or outside the 40 North/70 West benchmark to near Nantucket or inside the 40 North/70 West benchmark which may affect precipitation type and accumulation amounts in the transitional zone area in the Boston-Providence corridor and Route 128 corridor and may bring some mixed precipitation to the eastern areas of the Winter Storm Warning area. This is only one model run and may not constitute a trend but this will be monitored closely. A Wind Advisory has replaced the High Wind Watch for Eastern Plymouth County and Cape Cod and the Islands from 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon through 3 AM Thursday Morning. This is a higher end wind advisory with wind gusts to 50 or possibly even 55 MPH possible and there is a chance of even higher wind gusts. These winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in the coastal plain. In addition to potential for significant travel impacts in the Winter Storm Watch/Warning areas, the potential for isolated tree and wire damage due to the snow being heavy and wet will also need to be monitored. Coastal flooding is currently not expected due to lower astronomical tides and the short duration of the strong winds at the coast. Heavy rainfall in Southeast New England may lead to urban and poor drainage flooding in the typical locations.

While the storm is now under 24 hours away from impacts, small deviations in track, speed, intensity of the system and the amount of cold air that is drawn into the system can still cause deviations to the current thinking and forecast particularly in the Boston to Providence corridor and eastern areas of the Winter Storm Warnings currently in place. Future model runs could cause changes in the forecast if the American models depiction at 18z becomes more of a trend or the current forecast could be supported if it is just one model run that shows a slightly closer track and more warm air wrapped into the system. Future model runs may continue to affect the current slate of warnings and advisories in place and expected snowfall amounts over Southern New England.

Precipitation type and changeover information and where frozen precipitation is accumulating (paved surfaces and grassy surfaces or just grassy surfaces) will be very critical to this storm in addition to snow accumulation information. Also, if your elevation is known, that will also be helpful to draw any delineation that may be based on elevation.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 9 AM Wednesday Morning lasting through late Wednesday Evening. The next coordination message will be issued if time allows by 830 AM Wednesday Morning. Storm related pictures/video of snowfall and damage can be sent to our Facebook and Twitter feeds, as a reply to this message or to the pics@nsrdio.org email address with credit given to the spotter and the pictures and video shared with the media and emergency management unless otherwise indicated. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Facebook Posting of a graphical briefing including graphical snowfall amounts:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Storm Briefing Via Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.718728341554873/718727831554924/?type=1&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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