Storm Coordination Message #3 – Saturday 1/31/15 Wind Event and Sunday Evening 2/1/15-Monday 2/2/15 Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Strong Winds and Bitter Cold Chill Saturday sets the stage for a major Winter Storm late Sunday Night through Monday Night..
..A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 9 PM for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 9 PM Sunday Evening through 1 AM Tuesday Morning for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area excluding South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands for 8-14 inches of snow. Both the Morning and Evening commutes are expected to be impacted.. 
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Sunday Evening through late Monday Night for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands for 4-9″ of snow and a trace of ice as there is some question of mixed precipitation in this area. If the mixed precipitation doesn’t occur then the higher snowfall amounts as stated in the Winter Storm Warning area are likely..
..Minor to isolated pockets of moderate coastal flooding are possible Monday Afternoon and Evening and will be monitored..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor strong wind conditions for Saturday Evening. SKYWARN self-activation is likely for the major winter storm on Monday with Ops at NWS Taunton possible..

Bitterly cold conditions have its grip over the region today with strong winds continuing over Cape Cod and the Islands. Wind Advisories are posted per the headlines of this coordination message. These winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.

A storm system affecting the midwest will be making its way towards Southern New England late Sunday Night around Midnight in the west and after midnight in the east and lasting for much of the day Monday. This storm system will likely dump a significant snowfall on much of Southern New England. Winter Storm Warnings are now posted for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area north and west of the South Coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands from 9 PM Sunday Evening through 1 AM Tuesday Morning for 8-14 inches of snow. The morning commute will be significantly impacted and the evening commute will be impacted as well. Snowfall rates of 1-2″ per hour are expected with some blowing and drifting of snow especially in the coastal areas of the warning where wind gusts could reach 50 MPH.

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands for 4-9″ of snow and a trace of ice Computer models are wavering a bit in how close the storm system will come towards the region which may cause some precip type issues particularly for the Outer Cape, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard possibly into the South Coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Given the uncertainty on getting to warning criteria snowfall, the Winter Storm Watch remains in effect. As we get closer to the storm event, additional computer model runs should better delineate the snow/mixed precip/rain line in this area. If the mixed precipitation doesn’t occur then the higher snowfall amounts as stated in the Winter Storm Warning area are likely.

Minor to isolated pockets of moderate coastal flooding are possible Monday Afternoon and Evening and will be monitored. This is especially true for locations significantly impacted by the blizzard where coastal barrier structures are weakened. Further details will become known based on storm track and rate of intensification near our region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor strong wind conditions for Saturday Evening. SKYWARN self-activation is likely for the major winter storm on Monday with Ops at NWS Taunton possible. The next coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics with snowfall totals for the upcoming system:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 1/31/15 Wind Event and Sunday Evening 2/1/15-Monday 2/2/15 Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Strong Winds and Bitter Cold Chill Saturday sets the stage for a major Winter Storm late Sunday Night through Monday Night..
..A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 6 PM for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth, Southern Bristol, and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Bristol, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for sustained winds 15-25 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 9 PM for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area for 6-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible for Sunday Evening through late Monday Night. Both the Morning and Evening commutes are expected to be impacted..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor strong wind conditions for Saturday. SKYWARN self-activation is likely for the major winter storm on Monday with Ops at NWS Taunton possible..

Bitterly cold conditions have its grip over the region today with strong winds over East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Wind Advisories are posted per the headlines of this coordination message. These winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.

A storm system affecting the midwest will be making its way towards Southern New England late Sunday Night after Midnight lasting for much of the day Monday. This storm system will likely dump a significant snowfall on much of Southern New England with a Winter Storm Watch posted for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area for late Sunday Evening through late Monday Night. Computer models are wavering a bit in how close the storm system will come towards the region which may cause some precip type issues particularly for the Outer Cape, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard possibly into the South Coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island but as seen with the recent blizzard, there may be a slight closer to the coast bias in some models. Currently, we are looking at an all snow event for much of the coverage area except possibly for Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard and the Outer Cape. A widespread swath of 6-12″ of snow is expected with isolated higher amounts likely in bands that will setup within the general snow area. Winds will increase with gusts to 35-40 MPH possible particularly in coastal areas but winds will not be as strong as the recent blizzard. Coastal flood issues are currently expected to be muted due to the timing of strongest winds with the low tide cycle. This will continue to bear watching.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor strong wind conditions for Saturday. SKYWARN self-activation is likely for the major winter storm on Monday with Ops at NWS Taunton possible. The next coordination message will be posted by 6 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics with snowfall totals for the upcoming system:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Friday Evening 1/30/15-Saturday Morning 1/31/15 and Sunday Evening 2/1/15-Monday 2/2/15 Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..The Blizzard of 2015 has opened up an active winter weather pattern for the region over the next few days with a light snow event tonight into Saturday Morning and a heavier snowfall event for late Sunday Night into Monday..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 11 PM tonight through 10 AM Saturday Morning for Cape Cod and Essex County Massachusetts for 2-4″ of snow. Areas outside of the advisory area will see 2″ or less of snow during this time period..
..A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from 1-9 AM Saturday for Hartford and Tolland Counties in Connecticut, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, and Northern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for wind chills as low as 16 below zero. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from 11 PM tonight through 11 AM Saturday Morning for Western Hampden, Western Hampshire and Western Franklin Counties of Massachusetts for wind chills as low as 23 below zero..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 6 PM Saturday for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth, Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Bristol, Newport and Washington Counties of Rhode Island. A Wind Advisory is also in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from 1 AM tonight through 9 PM Saturday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH..
..A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Sunday Evening through late Monday Night for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Barnstable, Bristol, Plymouth, Norfolk, and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for the potential of 6″ or more of snow in a 12 hour period or 8″ or more of snow in a 24 hour period..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the light snow and wind event overnight tonight into Saturday. SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Sunday Evening into late Monday Night with Ops at NWS Taunton Possible..

The blizzard of 2015 has opened an active winter weather pattern for the region for the next few days. The headlines depict conditions for tonight into Saturday. There will be bitterly cold conditions with a light snow event for the North Shore and Cape Cod and strong winds across east and south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island with wind gusts of up to 50 MPH likely. Bitterly cold wind chills will affect the region as well. Even in areas where there are no wind chill headlines, the winds will add to the bitterly cold chill for the region.

After the initial light snow event, bitterly cold conditions and strong winds, another coastal system is likely to affect Southern New England. While not likely to be as potent as the blizzard of 2015, the potential exists for another significant snowfall of 6″ or more in a 12 hour period or 8″ or more in a 24 hour period. The wind and coastal flood aspects for this event are not expected to be large factors but these aspects will be monitored closely and refined in future forecasts.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the light snow and wind event overnight tonight into Saturday. SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Sunday Evening into late Monday Night with Ops at NWS Taunton Possible. The next coordination message will be posted by 1100 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory/Wind Chill Advisory/Winter Storm Watch Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics (note that the winter weather graphics are reflective of the current light snowfall for the Friday Evening to Saturday Morning timeframe):

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory/Wind Chill Advisory/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Blizzard Coordination Message #3 – Monday Evening 1/26/15-Wednesday Morning 1/28/15 Blizzard/Major Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Major Winter Storm/Blizzard with the potential for a Historic Storm for all of Southern New England Monday Evening through late Tuesday Night, possibly extending into Wednesday Morning. Preparations for this major system should be completed by late Monday Afternoon/early evening at the latest and given latest model trends if it could be completed before the evening commute, that would be the best scenario with an earlier start of accumulating snow..
..A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts northwest of the Cape Cod Canal 7 PM Monday Evening to 1 AM Wednesday Morning for 15-30″ of snow, a band of isolated higher amounts likely and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 65-75 MPH and isolated higher gusts likely. The strong to damaging winds coupled with heavy snow will create blizzard conditions and the potential for scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages particularly south of a Providence to Taunton to Plymouth line where the strongest winds at the coastline coupled with a heavy wet snow near a rain/snow transition line is likely to setup..
..A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Northern Connecticut and Southern Worcester County Massachusetts from 7 PM Monday Evening to 1 AM Wednesday Morning for 20-30 Inches of snow and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH it wind gusts to 45 MPH. The combination of heavy snowfall and strong winds will likely cause blizzard conditions in this region. Isolated tree and wire damage and power outages are possible but the winds won’t be quite as strong and snow will be lighter and fluffier in this area so the infrastructure damage threat is lower in this area versus eastern portions of the Blizzard Warning area..
..A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard from 7 PM Monday Evening through Noon Tuesday for 10-18″ of snow with isolated higher amounts closest to he Cape Cod Canal and possibly somewhat lower amounts on the Outer Cape, sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 70-80 MPH and isolated higher gusts likely. The strong to damaging winds coupled with heavy wet snow will create blizzard conditions and the potential for scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. The precipitation may change to rain for a time around midday Tuesday before changing back to snow Tuesday Evening and ending early Wednesday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from 7 PM Monday Evening to 1 AM Wednesday Morning for 20-30″ of snow, isolated higher amounts possible and winds sustained at 15-25 MPH with gusts to 35-45 MPH and a period of near blizzard conditions.
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Nantucket Island from 7 PM Monday Evening through 1 AM Wednesday Morning for 4-6″ of snow. For Nantucket, they will be closest to the storm center and will have the most mixing or the longest changeover to rain of all areas of Southern New England. This area is currently expected to reach minimal Winter Storm criteria for snowfall. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with strong to damaging winds could cause numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect for Nantucket Island from 7 PM Monday Evening to 1 AM Wednesday Morning for sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 70-80 MPH and isolated higher gusts likely. The damaging winds combined with any heavy wet snow could cause numerous pockets of tree and wire damage..
..A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect from 3-7 AM Tuesday for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for widespread moderate to potentially isolated pockets of major coastal flooding with considerable beach erosion. This means numerous road closures, flooded basements and the possibility of isolated structural damage from coastal flooding.. 
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for widespread moderate to potentially isolated pockets of major coastal flooding with considerable beach erosion for the late Tuesday Afternoon high tide cycles. This means numerous road closures, flooded basements and the possibility of isolated structural damage from coastal flooding..
..Storm pictures and video of snowfall measurements, wind and coastal damage will be very helpful for situational awareness/disaster intelligence purposes benefiting the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, the media, and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). They can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook, Twitter feed, as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures unless otherwise noted. Pictures can be sent during and after the storm. Please do not compromise safety to get these pictures and video..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 6 PM Monday Evening and last through at least late Tuesday Night with overnight operations active at least Monday Night and possibly Tuesday Night. Amateur Radio Emergency Services (ARES)/Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Services Groups (RACES) should closely monitor the progress of this potential major winter storm/blizzard which could be a historic storm for the region and seek advice from local ARES/RACES/EMCOMM leaders..

Computer weather models overnight continue to indicate a potentially significant major winter storm and blizzard for Southern New England. This is likely to be a crippling and historic storm. The storm onset is approximately 12 hours away as well which means preparation for this potentially historic storm is somewhat condensed and must be completed by late Monday Afternoon. The headlines of this coordination message depicts the current threats to the region. The only significant change was to upgrade Nantucket Island to a Winter Storm Warning. In Nantucket, they are expected to meet the minimal Winter Storm Warning criteria as there will be snow mixing with and changing to rain with a change back to snow. This is a high confidence forecast on the general theme for the region though specific details still need to be worked out with some variability in storm tracks that could affect snow totals in extreme Southeast Coastal New England. Those specific details include:

1.) Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard are still expected to see significant snowfall and blizzard conditions despite a mix or changeover to rain around midday Tuesday with Blizzard Warnings posted. This could change but this area remains at significant risk for extensive tree and wire damage and power outages regardless of whether true blizzard criteria is met. There is also the possibility of heavier snow towards the Cape Cod Canal and lesser snow over the Outer Cape. This will depend on the storm track. There remains the threat that all of Cape Cod gets significant snow amounts in the 10-18″ range.
2.) For the southeastern portions of the Blizzard Warning area along and south of a Providence to Taunton to Plymouth line through the immediate south and east coasts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, this region is closest to an overlap of damaging winds with heavy wet snow and could also be an area of enhanced damage. This will continue to bear close watching. It is noted that some parts of extreme Southeast Coastal Massachusetts have a slight drop of snow accumulations forecasted. This region is still expected to get at over 12″ of snow with the 20-30″ snow forecast not unreasonable. The variability here will depend on the location of any heavy snow bands that cause dry slotting in this area and if the rain/snow line were to move further west than forecasted given some variability in the weather model tracks of this dangerous nor’easter.
3.) Within the Blizzard Warning area included the area expanded through Northern Connecticut into Southern Worcester County Massachusetts, a band of heavier snow is likely within the widespread area of 20-30″ of snow. Future model runs and trends will help delineate where that will setup. This area along with the remainder of the Blizzard Warning area north and west of a Providence to Taunton to Plymouth line will see isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages but the snow will not be as heavy and wet and winds in western and northern parts of the Blizzard Warning are away from the coast will see winds not as strong as near the coast and southern and eastern areas of the Blizzard Warning. Nonetheless, some pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are likely.
4.) For western and central portions of the NWS Taunton coverage area under a Winter Storm Warning, there will be a period of near blizzard conditions but the threat for true blizzard conditions is less due to winds not as strong as in eastern areas. The snow will be lighter and fluffier which should keep any infrastructure damage to trees and power lines and any power outages more isolated. Nonetheless, 20-30″ of snow are expected in these areas and travel will be extremely difficult.

People should prepare for this major storm similar to other past major winter storms for the region. Have plenty of batteries and battery powered equipment on hand and test out this equipment and any generator equipment and have non-perishable food items. Make sure you have gas for your generator as well. If it turns out that you do not lose power in the storm, you will be better prepared for the next storm system.

Storm pictures and video of snowfall measurements, wind and coastal damage will be very helpful for situational awareness/disaster intelligence purposes benefiting the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, the media, and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). They can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook, Twitter feed, as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures unless otherwise noted. Pictures can be sent during and after the storm. Please do not compromise safety to get these pictures and video.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 6 PM Monday Evening and last through at least late Tuesday Night with overnight operations active at least Monday Night and possibly Tuesday Night. Amateur Radio Emergency Services (ARES)/Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Services Groups (RACES) should closely monitor the progress of this potential major winter storm/blizzard which could be a historic storm for the region and seek advice from local ARES/RACES/EMCOMM leaders. This will likely be the last coordination message for this event unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning Statement, High Wind Warning Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Watch Statement, NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics and Winter Weather Preparedness Safety Tips from the 2014 Winter Weather Preparedness Week:

NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Preparedness Week Statements:
http://www.weather.gov/box/WinterWeatherPreparednessWeek
http://www.wx1box.org/local/winter_weather_preparedness_11_8_14.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

 

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Blizzard Coordination Message #2 – Monday Evening 1/26/15-Wednesday Morning 1/28/15 Blizzard/Major Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Major Winter Storm/Blizzard with the potential for a Historic Storm for all of Southern New England Monday Evening through late Tuesday Night, possibly extending into Wednesday Morning. Preparations for this major system should be completed by late Monday Afternoon/early evening at the latest..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect for Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts northwest of the Cape Cod Canal from 7 PM Monday Evening to 1 AM Wednesday Morning for 20-30″ of snow, a band of isolated higher amounts likely and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 65-75 MPH and isolated higher gusts likely. The strong to damaging winds coupled with heavy snow will create blizzard conditions and the potential for scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages particularly south of a Providence to Taunton to Plymouth line where the strongest winds at the coastline coupled with a heavy wet snow near a rain/snow transition line is likely to setup..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect for Northern Connecticut and Southern Worcester County Massachusetts from 7 PM Monday Evening to 1 AM Wednesday Morning for 20-30 Inches of snow and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH it wind gusts to 45 MPH. The combination of heavy snowfall and strong winds will likely cause blizzard conditions in this region. Isolated tree and wire damage and power outages are possible but the winds won’t be quite as strong and snow will be lighter and fluffier in this area so the infrastructure damage is lower in this area versus eastern portions of the Blizzard Warning area..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard from 7 PM Monday Evening through Noon Tuesday for 10-18″ of snow with isolated higher amounts closest to he Cape Cod Canal and sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 70-80 MPH and isolated higher gusts likely. The strong to damaging winds coupled with heavy wet snow will create blizzard conditions and the potential for scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. The precipitation may change to rain for a time around midday Tuesday before changing back to snow Tuesday Evening and ending early Wednesday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from 7 PM Monday Evening to 1 AM Wednesday Morning for 20-30″ of snow, isolated higher amounts possible and winds sustained at 15-25 MPH with gusts to 35-45 MPH and a period of near blizzard conditions.
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Nantucket Island from Monday Evening through Tuesday Afternoon for 4-8″ of snow. For Nantucket, they will be closest to the storm center and could have the most mixing or the longest changeover to rain of all areas of Southern New England. This area may or may not reach Winter Storm criteria or snowfall but the snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with strong to damaging winds could cause numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for Nantucket Island from 7 PM Monday Evening to 1 AM Wednesday Morning for sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 70-80 MPH and isolated higher gusts likely. The damaging winds combined with any heavy wet snow could cause numerous pockets of tree and wire damage..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect from 3-7 AM Tuesday for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for widespread moderate to potentially isolated pockets of major coastal flooding with considerable beach erosion. This means numerous road closures, flooded basements and the possibility of isolated structural damage from coastal flooding. 
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for widespread moderate to potentially isolated pockets of major coastal flooding with considerable beach erosion for the late Tuesday Afternoon high tide cycles. This means numerous road closures, flooded basements and the possibility of isolated structural damage from coastal flooding..
..Storm pictures and video of snowfall measurements, wind and coastal damage will be very helpful for situational awareness/disaster intelligence purposes benefiting the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, the media, and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). They can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook, Twitter feed, as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures unless otherwise noted. Pictures can be sent during and after the storm. Please do not compromise safety to get these pictures and video..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 6 PM Monday Evening and last through at least late Tuesday Night with overnight operations active at least Monday Night and possibly Tuesday Night. Amateur Radio Emergency Services (ARES)/Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Services Groups (RACES) should closely monitor the progress of this potential major winter storm/blizzard which could be a historic storm for the region and seek advice from local ARES/RACES/EMCOMM leaders..

Computer weather models over the course of today have continued to coalesce around a potentially significant major winter storm and blizzard for Southern New England. This is likely to be a crippling and historic storm. The storm onset is approximately 24 hours away as well which means preparation for this potentially historic storm is somewhat condensed and must be completed by late Monday Afternoon. The headlines of this coordination message depicts the current threats to the region with many areas upgraded to Blizzard and Winter Storm Warnings. The main changes were to add Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard as well as Northern Connecticut and Southern Worcester County to the Blizzard Warnings and to issue a High Wind Warning for Nantucket Island were the Winter Storm Watch remain posted as it is unclear whether heavy snowfall will reach winter storm warning criteria due to the proximity of the storm near Nantucket. This is a high confidence forecast on the general theme for the region though specific details need to be worked out. Those specific details include:

1.) At this time, Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard are now expected to see significant snowfall and blizzard conditions despite a mix or changeover to rain around midday Tuesday with Blizzard Warnings posted. This could change but this area remains at significant risk for extensive tree and wire damage and power outages regardless of whether true blizzard criteria is met.
2.) For the southeastern portions of the Blizzard Warning area along and south of a Providence to Taunton to Plymouth line through the immediate south and east coasts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, this region is closest to an overlap of damaging winds with heavy wet snow and could also be an area of enhanced damage. This will continue to bear close watching.
3.) Within the Blizzard Warning area included the area expanded through Northern Connecticut into Southern Worcester County Massachusetts, a band of heavier snow is likely within the widespread area of 20-30″ of snow. Future model runs and trends will help delineate where that will setup. This area along with the remainder of the Blizzard Warning area north and west of a Providence to Taunton to Plymouth line will see isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages but the snow will not be as heavy and wet and winds in western and northern parts of the Blizzard Warning are away from the coast will see winds not as strong as near the coast and southern and eastern areas of the Blizzard Warning. Nonetheless, some pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are likely.
4.) For western and central portions of the NWS Taunton coverage area under a Winter Storm Warning, there will be a period of near blizzard conditions but the threat for true blizzard conditions is less due to winds not as strong as in eastern areas. The snow will be lighter and fluffier which should keep any infrastructure damage to trees and power lines and any power outages more isolated. Nonetheless, 20-30″ of snow are expected in these areas and travel will be extremely difficult.

People should prepare for this major storm similar to other past major winter storms for the region. Have plenty of batteries and battery powered equipment on hand and test out this equipment and any generator equipment and have non-perishable food items. Make sure you have gas for your generator as well. If it turns out that you do not lose power in the storm, you will be better prepared for the next storm system.

Storm pictures and video of snowfall measurements, wind and coastal damage will be very helpful for situational awareness/disaster intelligence purposes benefiting the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, the media, and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). They can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook, Twitter feed, as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures unless otherwise noted. Pictures can be sent during and after the storm. Please do not compromise safety to get these pictures and video.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 6 PM Monday Evening and last through at least late Tuesday Night with overnight operations active at least Monday Night and possibly Tuesday Night. Amateur Radio Emergency Services (ARES)/Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Services Groups (RACES) should closely monitor the progress of this potential major winter storm/blizzard which could be a historic storm for the region and seek advice from local ARES/RACES/EMCOMM leaders. The next coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Storm Watch Statement, High Wind Warning Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Watch Statement, NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics and Winter Weather Preparedness Safety Tips from the 2014 Winter Weather Preparedness Week:

NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Preparedness Week Statements:
http://www.weather.gov/box/WinterWeatherPreparednessWeek
http://www.wx1box.org/local/winter_weather_preparedness_11_8_14.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Blizzard Coordination Message #1 – Monday Evening 1/26/15-Wednesday Morning 1/28/15 Blizzard/Major Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Potential Major Winter Storm/Blizzard with the potential for a Historic Storm for all of Southern New England Monday Evening through late Tuesday Night, possibly extending into Wednesday Morning. Preparations for this major system should be completed by late Monday Afternoon/early evening at the latest..
..A Blizzard Watch is now in effect for Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts northwest of the Cape Cod Canal from Monday Evening to late Tuesday Night for 18-24″ of snow, a band of isolated higher amounts likely and sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher gusts likely. The strong to damaging winds coupled with heavy snow will create blizzard conditions and the potential for scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. The damage will likely be the most significant if the strongest winds at the coastline couple with a heavy wet snow near a possible rain/snow transition line..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Northern Connecticut and Western and Central Massachusetts from Monday Evening to late Tuesday Night for 12-24″ of snow, isolated higher amounts possible and winds sustained at 10-20 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH and a period of near blizzard conditions. There is a potential for some of this region to be upgraded to a Blizzard Watch/Warning in future forecasts..
..A Winter Storm Watch and High Wind Watch is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from Monday Evening through late Tuesday Night for 7-14″ of snow and sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. A period of near blizzard conditions is likely in this area. It is unclear at this time whether precipitation will remain all snow which is why this region is under a Winter Storm Watch. If precipitation remains all or mostly snow then the Winter Storm Watch for some or all of this region will be upgraded to a Blizzard Watch/Warning in future forecasts with snowfall amounts increased. Regardless of the type of watch/warning issuance, there is a significant risk for numerous tree and wire damage reports and power outages in this area..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for widespread moderate to potentially isolated pockets of major coastal flooding with considerable beach erosion for the early Tuesday Morning and late Tuesday Afternoon high tide cycles. This means numerous road closures, flooded basements and the possibility of isolated structural damage from coastal flooding..
..Storm pictures and video of snowfall measurements, wind and coastal damage will be very helpful for situational awareness/disaster intelligence purposes benefiting the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, the media, and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). They can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook, Twitter feed, as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures unless otherwise noted. Pictures can be sent during and after the storm. Please do not compromise safety to get these pictures and video..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence Monday Evening and last through at least late Tuesday Night with overnight operations active at least Monday Night and possibly Tuesday Night. Amateur Radio Emergency Services (ARES)/Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Services Groups (RACES) should closely monitor the progress of this potential major winter storm/blizzard which could be a historic storm for the region and seek advice from local ARES/RACES/EMCOMM leaders..

Computer weather models over the course of Saturday have coalesced around a potentially significant major winter storm and blizzard for Southern New England. The storm onset is approximately 36-48 hours away as well which means preparation for this potentially historic storm is somewhat condensed. The headlines of this coordination message depicts the current threats to the region. This is a high confidence forecast on the general theme for the region though specific details need to be worked out. Those specific details include:

1.) At this time, portions of Cape Cod and the Islands could see a mix or changeover to rain at the height of the storm and this could reduce the amount of snow but as seen in the February 2013 blizzard, this could mean a very heavy wet snow and combined with damaging wind gusts up to 70 MPH with possibly even higher gusts, this could create significant storm impact to trees, power lines and result in numerous power outages. A slightly more offshore track may result in heavier snow amounts but remaining heavy and wet in most of the area still creating the risk for numerous damage reports and power outages..
2.) For the southeastern portions of the Blizzard Watch area near the immediate south and east coasts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, this region is closest to an overlap of damaging winds with heavy wet snow and could also be an area of enhanced damage. A slightly further offshore solution may keep this risk along the immediate coast. This will bear close watching.
3.) Within the Blizzard Watch area, a band of heavier snow is likely within the widespread area of 18-24″ of snow. Future model runs and trends will help delineate where that will setup. This may extend into part of the Winter Storm Watch area that are close to the western end of the current Blizzard Watch area.
4.) For western and central portions of the NWS Taunton coverage area under a Winter Storm Watch, areas closest to the current Blizzard Watch area could see an upgrade to a Blizzard Watch/Warning area depending on the track of this major storm system. There is also the chance that the track is slightly further offshore which would mean western most areas would still see 6″ or more of snow but not quite as much as 12-24″. Areas of the Winter Storm Watch closest to the Blizzard watch area are quite likely to see 12-24″ of snow with isolated higher amounts likely.

People should prepare for this major storm similar to other past major winter storms for the region. Have plenty of batteries and battery powered equipment on hand and test out this equipment and any generator equipment and have non-perishable food items. Make sure you have gas for your generator as well. If it turns out that you do not lose power in the storm, you will be better prepared for the next storm system.

Storm pictures and video of snowfall measurements, wind and coastal damage will be very helpful for situational awareness/disaster intelligence purposes benefiting the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, the media, and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). They can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook, Twitter feed, as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures unless otherwise noted. Pictures can be sent during and after the storm. Please do not compromise safety to get these pictures and video.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence Monday Evening and last through at least late Tuesday Night with overnight operations active at least Monday Night and possibly Tuesday Night. Amateur Radio Emergency Services (ARES)/Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Services Groups (RACES) should closely monitor the progress of this potential major winter storm/blizzard which could be a historic storm for the region and seek advice from local ARES/RACES/EMCOMM leaders. The next coordination message will be posted by 11 PM this Sunday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics and Winter Weather Preparedness Safety Tips from the 2014 Winter Weather Preparedness Week:

NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
http://www.wx1box.org/local/2015.01.25_AM.png

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Preparedness Week Statements:
http://www.weather.gov/box/WinterWeatherPreparednessWeek
http://www.wx1box.org/local/winter_weather_preparedness_11_8_14.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Storm Coordination Message #3 – Late Friday Night 1/23/15 through Saturday Evening 1/24/15 Coastal Winter Storm

Hello to all..

..Strong Coastal Storm On Track to Affect Portions of Southern New England with heavy wet snow and strong to possibly damaging winds and minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday Mid-Afternoon High Tide..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from Midnight through 7 PM Saturday for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County Rhode Island and Worcester, Middlesex, Western Norfolk, Western Essex and Eastern Hampden County Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and the highest amounts in higher terrain locations and the possibility for a trace of ice. The snow will be a wet snow leading to the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from Midnight tonight to 7 PM Saturday for Western Hampden, Hampshire and Franklin Counties for 4-6″ of snow. A slightly more northern track means that Western Franklin County Massachusetts will see snow amounts greater than 4″..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from Midnight through 7 PM Saturday for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol and Washington Counties of Rhode Island..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island from 3 PM-Midnight Saturday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with wind gusts of 50-55 MPH. Other coastal areas could be added to the Wind Advisory in future forecasts..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket Island from Noon to 400 PM Saturday which is the Saturday mid-afternoon high tide for minor coastal flooding with a low risk for moderate coastal flooding..
..The National Weather Service in Gray Maine Has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Eastern Hillsborough County NH from 5 AM-10 PM Saturday for 4-8″ of snow and a Winter Weather Advisory for Cheshire and West-Central Hillsborough County NH for 3-6″ of snow. A link to that statement from NWS Gray is provided in this coordination message..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence around 7 AM lasting through Saturday Evening for this coastal storm potential..

A strong coastal storm will impact the region late tonight through Saturday Evening. During the day, model runs have kept the same timing with the onset of precipitation and storm impacts to the region. In addition, model runs have kept with a slightly closer to the coast theme but there is still above average uncertainty on snow amounts and where the rain/snow/mix transition line of precipitation will be. The headlines of the coordination message depict areas that will potentially receive around or more than 6″ of snow and areas that could receive advisory level snowfall based on current model trends. Given snowfall will be heavy and wet, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages will be possible. Key items for this winter storm include the following:

1.) Position of the rain/wet snow line as dictated by the track of the storm system as well as the potential for sleet and freezing rain near the transition line. Previous thinking indicated more of wet snow to rain precipitation transition versus having a zone of mixed precipitation between the wet snow and rain. Latest models indicate a sleet/freezing rain threat near the transition line remains possible.
2.) The amount of cooling that can take place as the storm intensifies. This will dictate the changeover in locations that have snow changing to rain or precipitation start as rain and changeover to snow. The headlines reflect current thinking.
3.) The storm will intensify rapidly. Where this rapid intensification occurs and its track will determine the extent of the strong to possibly damaging winds near the coast. The lack of a high pressure system to the north could limit the strength of the winds but strong winds for at least Cape Cod and Nantucket is likely prompting a Wind Advisory for this area and models may be underdoing the strength of the winds given the rapid storm intensification and there could be some expansion of the Wind Advisory to other coastal areas and maybe southeast interior New England in future forecasts.
4.) Minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday mid-afternoon high tide with a low risk for pockets of moderate coastal flooding in East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for this area from Noon-4 PM Saturday.

Future model trends will likely adjust warnings and advisories for the region. Since NWS Taunton Operations will commence early Saturday Morning, this will be the last coordination message for this coastal storm. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence around 7 AM lasting through Saturday Evening for this coastal storm potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics as well as the NWS Gray Maine Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Gray Maine Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/me/latest.wwus41.KGYX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

 

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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Late Friday Night 1/23/15 through Saturday Evening 1/24/15 Coastal Winter Storm

Hello to all..

..Strong Coastal Storm to Affect Portions of Southern New England with the potential for heavy wet snow and strong to possibly damaging winds and possibly minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday Mid-Afternoon High Tide due to the system’s arrival to the region being faster than prior forecasts..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from late Friday Night through Saturday Evening for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County Rhode Island and Worcester, Middlesex, Western Norfolk, Essex and Eastern Hampden County Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and the highest amounts in higher terrain locations and the possibility for a trace of ice. The snow will be a wet snow leading to the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Areas south and east of the Winter Storm Watch area northwest of the Cape Cod Canal may require Winter Weather Advisories in future forecasts..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from Midnight tonight to 7 PM Saturday for Western Hampden, Hampshire and Eastern Franklin Counties for 4-6″ of snow. Western Franklin County is currently expected to receive 1-3″ of snow below advisory criteria..
..The National Weather Service in Gray Maine Has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Hillsborough County NH from late tonight through Saturday Evening. A link to that statement from NWS Gray is provided in this coordination message..
..Strong Winds Across Cape Cod and the Islands and other eastern and southern coastal areas of Massachusetts will likely require Wind Advisories for portions of this area in future forecasts.
..The system has sped up which means that minor coastal flooding is also possible at the time of Saturday Mid-Afternoon high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. This may require a Coastal Flood Advisory. The early Sunday Morning High tide is no longer expected to be affected..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely for much of Saturday into Saturday Night..

A strong coastal storm will impact the region late tonight through Saturday Evening. Overnight, model runs have sped up the onset of precipitation and storm impacts to the region. In addition, model runs are slightly closer to the coast but there is still above average uncertainty on snow amounts and where the rain/snow/mix transition line of precipitation will be. The headlines of the coordination message depict areas that will potentially receive around or more than 6″ of snow and areas that could receive advisory level snowfall based on current model trends. Given snowfall will be heavy and wet, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages will be possible. Key items for this winter storm include the following:

1.) Position of the rain/wet snow line as dictated by the track of the storm system as well as the potential for sleet and freezing rain near the transition line. Previous thinking indicated more of wet snow to rain precipitation transition versus having a zone of mixed precipitation between the wet snow and rain. Latest models indicate a sleet/freezing rain threat near the transition line is possible.
2.) The amount of cooling that can take place as the storm intensifies. This will dictate the changeover in locations that have snow changing to rain or precipitation start as rain and changeover to snow.
3.) The storm will intensify rapidly. Where this rapid intensification occurs and its track will determine the extent of the strong to possibly damaging winds near the coast. The lack of a high pressure system to the north could limit the strength of the winds but strong winds for at least Cape Cod and the Islands appears likely and models may be underdoing the strength of the winds given the rapid storm intensification.
4.) Minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday mid-afternoon high tide in East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands is appearing more likely due to that tide cycle being high, a slightly closer track and the speed of the system. The extent of minor coastal flooding will depend on the track and speed of the system. The early Sunday Morning high tide will no longer be affected due to winds switching to an offshore wind by that high tide cycle.

Future model trends will depict additional watches, warnings and advisories for the region. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Friday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely for much of Saturday into Saturday Night. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics as well as the NWS Gray Maine Winter Storm Watch Statement:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Gray Maine Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/me/latest.wwus41.KGYX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Saturday Morning through Saturday Evening 1/24/15 Coastal Winter Storm

Hello to all..

..Strong Coastal Storm to Affect Portions of Southern New England with the potential for heavy wet snow and strong to possibly damaging winds and possibly minor coastal flooding at the time of the early Sunday Morning High Tide..
..A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Saturday Morning through Saturday Evening for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County Rhode Island and Worcester, Middlesex, Western Norfolk, Western Essex and Eastern Hampden County Massachusetts for 4-7″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and the highest amounts in higher terrain locations. The snow will be a wet snow leading to the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Areas surrounding the Winter Storm Watch area may require Winter Weather Advisories in future forecasts..
..Strong Winds Across Cape Cod and the Islands and other eastern and southern coastal areas of Massachusetts will likely require Wind Advisories for portions of this area in future forecasts. Minor Coastal Flooding is also possible at the time of the early Sunday Morning high tide depending on the track and speed of the system in East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely for much of Saturday into Saturday Night..

A strong coastal storm will impact the region Saturday Morning through Saturday Evening. The headlines of the coordination message depict areas that will potentially receive around or more than 6″ of snow and areas that could receive advisory level snowfall. Given snowfall will be heavy and wet, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages will be possible. Key items for this winter storm include the following:

1.) Position of the rain/wet snow line as dictated by the track of the storm system.
2.) The amount of cooling that can take place as the storm intensifies. This will dictate the changeover in locations that have snow changing to rain or precipitation start as rain and changeover to snow.
3.) The storm will intensify rapidly. Where this rapid intensification occurs and its track will determine the extent of the strong to possibly damaging winds near the coast. The lack of a high pressure system to the north could limit the strength of the winds but strong winds for at least Cape Cod and the Islands appears likely.
4.) Minor coastal flooding at the time of the early Sunday Morning high tide in East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands will depend on the track an speed of the system.

Future model trends will depict additional watches, warnings and advisories for the region. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Friday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics.

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Storm Coordination Message #1 -Wednesday Night 1/21/15-Thursday Morning 1/22/15 Light Snow Event

Hello to all..

..Coastal Storm Will Graze Southeast New England with a light snowfall..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday for Nantucket Island for 2-4″ of snow. Cape Cod and Maratha’s Vineyard possibly into South Coastal Massachusetts could receive 1-2″ of snow with isolated 3″ amounts. Outside of this area, amounts of 1″ or less are likely..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this light snowfall event and monitor the 6 AM Thursday Morning Cape and Islands Weather Net on the 146.955 MHz Barnstable Repeater for reports. This will likely be the only coordination message for this storm event unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall graphics..
..It is noted a much more significant storm could affect the region Saturday into early Sunday Morning. There is still considerable track and precip type uncertainties but this will bear watching as we get closer to his weekend..

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=box&product=WSW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=box&product=HWO&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

NWS Taunton Snowfall Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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