Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday May 12th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Remain Possible this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening Across much of Southern New England, particularly interior locations. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for much of Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible today to monitor any potential strong to severe thunderstorms..

Today will be the last day of above normal temperatures until the end of this week as a cold front will sweep through the region this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Wind Shear profiles are quite strong in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. The key item with regard to the coverage and intensity of any strong to severe thunderstorms today is the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Conditions this morning will be quite moist but will dry out a bit as the day progresses but weather models do show a return of some moisture values in the afternoon and early evening. Sufficient heating is expected today with the sun breaking out over the region particularly away from the immediate coast later this morning through this afternoon as the cold front and an impulse with the front move through the region. This will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall as the main threats. SPC has maintained a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for much of Southern New England. Again, the coverage is uncertain. There could be little to any strong to severe thunderstorms, to a few isolated strong and/or severe thunderstorms to more of a line of strong to severe thunderstorms depending on the available moisture the cold front and impulse has to trigger activity.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible today to monitor any potential strong to severe thunderstorms that develop in the region. This will be the last complete coordination message on this potential. A shortened coordination message will be issued as time allows and if Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Remain Possible this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening Across much of Southern New England, particularly interior locations. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for much of Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible today to monitor any potential strong to severe thunderstorms..

Today will be the last day of above normal temperatures until the end of this week as a cold front will sweep through the region this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Wind Shear profiles are quite strong in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. The key item with regard to the coverage and intensity of any strong to severe thunderstorms today is the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Conditions this morning will be quite moist but will dry out a bit as the day progresses but weather models do show a return of some moisture values in the afternoon and early evening. Sufficient heating is expected today with the sun breaking out over the region particularly away from the immediate coast later this morning through this afternoon as the cold front and an impulse with the front move through the region. This will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall as the main threats. SPC has maintained a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for much of Southern New England. Again, the coverage is uncertain. There could be little to any strong to severe thunderstorms, to a few isolated strong and/or severe thunderstorms to more of a line of strong to severe thunderstorms depending on the available moisture the cold front and impulse has to trigger activity.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible today to monitor any potential strong to severe thunderstorms that develop in the region. This will be the last complete coordination message on this potential. A shortened coordination message will be issued as time allows and if Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Leave a Reply