Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday May 19th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across Western and Central Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut particularly in the 4-10 PM timeframe. Strong to Damaging Winds and hail would be the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has continued a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday in Western and Central Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut. Threat will be contingent on heating and instability levels as well as the timing of the cold front through the area. Wind shear profiles and other parameters appear favorable at this time..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

At 715 AM, Doppler Radar showed showers over Central and Southern New England back into Eastern New York. These will move through the area this morning and are associated with a warm front. Behind this area of showers is some clearing ahead of a cold front that will move through the region late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night. Wind shear profiles will be favorable for isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms but the question will be the amount of clearing allowing for heating and instability over the area and this will likely limit the coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms to an isolated to scattered nature over western and central Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut. SPC continues a marginal risk for severe weather over this area. Across eastern areas of Southern New England, any thunderstorms are expected to be sub-severe as the storms weaken with the loss of any heating though this will be monitored.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on this situation. A shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows and ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook.

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across Western and Central Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut particularly in the 4-10 PM timeframe. Strong to Damaging Winds and hail would be the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has continued a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday in Western and Central Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut. Threat will be contingent on heating and instability levels as well as the timing of the cold front through the area. Wind shear profiles and other parameters appear favorable at this time..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

At 715 AM, Doppler Radar showed showers over Central and Southern New England back into Eastern New York. These will move through the area this morning and are associated with a warm front. Behind this area of showers is some clearing ahead of a cold front that will move through the region late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night. Wind shear profiles will be favorable for isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms but the question will be the amount of clearing allowing for heating and instability over the area and this will likely limit the coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms to an isolated to scattered nature over western and central Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut. SPC continues a marginal risk for severe weather over this area. Across eastern areas of Southern New England, any thunderstorms are expected to be sub-severe as the storms weaken with the loss of any heating though this will be monitored.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on this situation. A shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows and ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook.

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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