Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Tuesday June 23rd 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Potential significant severe weather outbreak with scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms remains likely across much of Southern New England particularly north and west of a Boston to Providence line but potentially affecting an area as far south and east as the Cape Cod Canal. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but an isolated tornado or two remains possible. Evolution of severe weather potential still has some uncertainty but confidence has increased since Monday Evening..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the enhanced risk area for severe weather. The enhanced risk area now covers Central and Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, most of Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island. Surrounding the enhanced risk of severe weather, there is a slight risk for severe weather for extreme Southeast Connecticut, the remainder of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts north and west of the Cape Cod Canal and a marginal risk for severe weather for Cape Cod and the Islands. NWS Taunton is in agreement with this assessment..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 12 PM for this potentially significant severe weather event. ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the situation and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos will be very helpful for situational awareness and disaster intelligence and can be sent as a reply to this email, via pics@nsradio.org or via the Facebook, Twitter feeds under WX1BOX. Severe Weather Safety Rules should be reviewed ahead of any severe weather activity..

At 650 AM, Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over Southern New England with some scattered clouds. Doppler Radar is showing showers and embedded thunderstorms with heavy rain over Northeastern New York and into Vermont while across South Central New York through Northern Pennsylvania, a complex of severe thunderstorms is moving straight east. The showers and embedded thunderstorms in Northeast New York and Vermont represent the warm front that is moving east-northeast. The activity across South-Central New York through Northern Pennsylvania is expected to reach Southern New England by around Noon if it continues to hold together and would likely constitute the start of the severe weather event. Based on the satellite imagery and latest model runs, there should be sufficient heating and destabilization ahead of this activity to allow for a significant severe weather outbreak. It is also noted that given favorable wind shear profiles and other parameters, provided temperatures can reach the 80s, that will be more than sufficient for a significant severe weather outbreak to occur. Main threats will be damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding but the secondary threat for an isolated tornado or two remains possible. The threat timeframe appears to be slightly earlier. The threat timeframe now appears to be from Noon-8 PM though could extend to 9 or 10 PM in eastern areas. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the enhanced risk area for severe weather. The enhanced risk area now covers Central and Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, most of Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island. Surrounding the enhanced risk of severe weather, there is a slight risk for severe weather for extreme Southeast Connecticut, the remainder of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts north and west of the Cape Cod Canal and a marginal risk for severe weather for Cape Cod and the Islands. NWS Taunton is in agreement with this assessment.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 12 PM for this potentially significant severe weather event. ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the situation and seek advice from local leadership. Severe Weather Safety Rules should be reviewed ahead of any severe weather activity. Pictures and videos will be very helpful for situational awareness and disaster intelligence and can be sent as a reply to this email, via pics@nsradio.org or via the Facebook, Twitter feeds under WX1BOX. This will be the last coordination message unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Area Forecast Discussion, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and NWS Taunton Severe Weather Preparedness Week Information to review severe weather safety rules:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Graphics:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statements – Severe Weather Preparedness Week:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/severe_weather_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Severe Weather Preparedness Week Web Page:
http://www.weather.gov/box/SevereWeatherPreparednessWeek

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Potential significant severe weather outbreak with scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms remains likely across much of Southern New England particularly north and west of a Boston to Providence line but potentially affecting an area as far south and east as the Cape Cod Canal. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but an isolated tornado or two remains possible. Evolution of severe weather potential still has some uncertainty but confidence has increased since Monday Evening..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the enhanced risk area for severe weather. The enhanced risk area now covers Central and Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, most of Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island. Surrounding the enhanced risk of severe weather, there is a slight risk for severe weather for extreme Southeast Connecticut, the remainder of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts north and west of the Cape Cod Canal and a marginal risk for severe weather for Cape Cod and the Islands. NWS Taunton is in agreement with this assessment..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 12 PM for this potentially significant severe weather event. ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the situation and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos will be very helpful for situational awareness and disaster intelligence and can be sent as a reply to this email, via pics@nsradio.org or via the Facebook, Twitter feeds under WX1BOX. Severe Weather Safety Rules should be reviewed ahead of any severe weather activity..

At 650 AM, Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over Southern New England with some scattered clouds. Doppler Radar is showing showers and embedded thunderstorms with heavy rain over Northeastern New York and into Vermont while across South Central New York through Northern Pennsylvania, a complex of severe thunderstorms is moving straight east. The showers and embedded thunderstorms in Northeast New York and Vermont represent the warm front that is moving east-northeast. The activity across South-Central New York through Northern Pennsylvania is expected to reach Southern New England by around Noon if it continues to hold together and would likely constitute the start of the severe weather event. Based on the satellite imagery and latest model runs, there should be sufficient heating and destabilization ahead of this activity to allow for a significant severe weather outbreak. It is also noted that given favorable wind shear profiles and other parameters, provided temperatures can reach the 80s, that will be more than sufficient for a significant severe weather outbreak to occur. Main threats will be damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding but the secondary threat for an isolated tornado or two remains possible. The threat timeframe appears to be slightly earlier. The threat timeframe now appears to be from Noon-8 PM though could extend to 9 or 10 PM in eastern areas. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the enhanced risk area for severe weather. The enhanced risk area now covers Central and Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, most of Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island. Surrounding the enhanced risk of severe weather, there is a slight risk for severe weather for extreme Southeast Connecticut, the remainder of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts north and west of the Cape Cod Canal and a marginal risk for severe weather for Cape Cod and the Islands. NWS Taunton is in agreement with this assessment.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 12 PM for this potentially significant severe weather event. ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the situation and seek advice from local leadership. Severe Weather Safety Rules should be reviewed ahead of any severe weather activity. Pictures and videos will be very helpful for situational awareness and disaster intelligence and can be sent as a reply to this email, via pics@nsradio.org or via the Facebook, Twitter feeds under WX1BOX. This will be the last coordination message unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Area Forecast Discussion, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and NWS Taunton Severe Weather Preparedness Week Information to review severe weather safety rules:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Graphics:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statements – Severe Weather Preparedness Week:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/severe_weather_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Severe Weather Preparedness Week Web Page:
http://www.weather.gov/box/SevereWeatherPreparednessWeek

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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