Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday July 1st 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England away from the Cape and Islands mid-late Wednesday Morning through late afternoon Wednesday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall are the primary threats but a secondary threat for isolated tornadoes exists depending on the level of destabilization in the atmosphere and the position of the warm front as it moves through the area..
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed much of Southern New England except for the Cape and Islands in a marginal risk for severe weather but could upgrade the region in future outlooks..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 730 AM Wednesday Morning to monitor the severe weather potential..

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England away from the Cape and Islands mid to late Wednesday Morning through late afternoon Wednesday as a warm front will move through the region Wednesday Morning followed by a cold front in the early to mid-afternoon timeframe on Wednesday. The key item to be resolved is whether there will be clearing to allow for destabilization of the atmosphere or if the level of wind shear and other parameters such as the cold pool of air aloft can overcome a lack of heating to allow for a more potent severe weather event or whether there will be isolated to scattered activity limited by the cloud cover and any morning shower and thunderstorm activity. It is noted that when colder air moves in aloft such as in the scenario for Wednesday, these scenarios have a tendency to be fairly prolific severe weather producers in Southern New England despite cloud cover as well as the possible earlier timing of activity.

The primary threat is for strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall but a secondary threat for isolated tornadoes depending on the level of destabilization and the position of the warm front. SPC has expanded the marginal risk for severe weather to much of Southern New England north and west of the Cape and Islands and have noted a possible upgrade in later outlooks. The threat timeframe in more specific terms is a bit earlier than normal with the threat in the 9 AM-4 PM timeframe.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 730 AM Wednesday Morning to monitor the severe weather potential. There is the possibility for one more coordination message to be sent by 900 AM Wednesday or this will be the last coordination message for this event depending on the evolution and timing for any strong to severe thunderstorms in the first part of the morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1506301752.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England away from the Cape and Islands mid-late Wednesday Morning through late afternoon Wednesday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall are the primary threats but a secondary threat for isolated tornadoes exists depending on the level of destabilization in the atmosphere and the position of the warm front as it moves through the area..
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed much of Southern New England except for the Cape and Islands in a marginal risk for severe weather but could upgrade the region in future outlooks..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 730 AM Wednesday Morning to monitor the severe weather potential..

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England away from the Cape and Islands mid to late Wednesday Morning through late afternoon Wednesday as a warm front will move through the region Wednesday Morning followed by a cold front in the early to mid-afternoon timeframe on Wednesday. The key item to be resolved is whether there will be clearing to allow for destabilization of the atmosphere or if the level of wind shear and other parameters such as the cold pool of air aloft can overcome a lack of heating to allow for a more potent severe weather event or whether there will be isolated to scattered activity limited by the cloud cover and any morning shower and thunderstorm activity. It is noted that when colder air moves in aloft such as in the scenario for Wednesday, these scenarios have a tendency to be fairly prolific severe weather producers in Southern New England despite cloud cover as well as the possible earlier timing of activity.

The primary threat is for strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall but a secondary threat for isolated tornadoes depending on the level of destabilization and the position of the warm front. SPC has expanded the marginal risk for severe weather to much of Southern New England north and west of the Cape and Islands and have noted a possible upgrade in later outlooks. The threat timeframe in more specific terms is a bit earlier than normal with the threat in the 9 AM-4 PM timeframe.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 730 AM Wednesday Morning to monitor the severe weather potential. There is the possibility for one more coordination message to be sent by 900 AM Wednesday or this will be the last coordination message for this event depending on the evolution and timing for any strong to severe thunderstorms in the first part of the morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1506301752.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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