Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday June 23rd 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Potential major severe weather outbreak with scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms likely across much of Southern New England particularly north and west of a Boston to Providence line but potentially affecting an area as far south and east as the Cape Cod Canal. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but an isolated tornado or two is also possible. The main caveat to this potential will be evolution of overnight convection and amount of clearing over the region by the midday Tuesday timeframe..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the area of Central and Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut in an enhanced risk of severe weather. Surrounding the enhanced risk of severe weather, there is a slight risk for severe weather for Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts north and west of the Cape Cod Canal and a marginal risk for severe weather for Cape Cod and the Islands. NWS Taunton is in agreement with this assessment..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 1 PM for this potentially significant severe weather event and SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any convection that could organize ahead of the warm front. ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the situation and seek advice from local leadership. Severe Weather Safety Rules should be reviewed ahead of any severe weather activity..

At 900 PM Monday Evening, Doppler Radar shows a line of showers in the West-Central New York State area. This activity is moving eastward and has been on a weakening trend. Behind this activity, a line of convection is organizing in the state of Michigan. The evolution of this overnight activity and any cloud cover is the main uncertainty that could affect the severe weather potential for Tuesday. A review of radar and satellite imagery at this time shows a more than sufficient level of clearing between the activity in Michigan and the Western New York activity to set the stage for the severe weather outbreak but we are still more than 18 hours from the event and convective activity in Michigan and its track and timing will ultimately determine the extent of the severe weather potential on Tuesday for Southern New England. At this time, the consensus of model runs and current trends support a scenario where sufficient heating and destabilization will allow for a potent severe weather outbreak for Southern New England. Factors that are confirmed to be in place for the potential for a severe weather outbreak include very strong winds aloft, a strong cold front and triggering mechanism.

The extent of destabilization as well as the wind profiles will determine if there is a large complex of severe thunderstorms enhancing the damaging wind potential or if there will be discreet supercells that would allow for the isolated tornado threat to materialize that would then evolve into a complex of severe thunderstorms or occur out ahead of any complex severe thunderstorms. If cloud cover does not sufficiently break by noon or 1 PM, the severe weather potential would be marginalized to a more isolated, typical Southern New England severe weather event with isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms and would likely be confined to Western New England but this currently appears to be the least likely scenario.

The threat timeframe for severe weather potential is between 2-8 PM though could go as long as 10 or 11 PM particularly in eastern areas of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the area of Central and Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut in an enhanced risk of severe weather. Surrounding the enhanced risk of severe weather, there is a slight risk for severe weather for Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts north and west of the Cape Cod Canal and a marginal risk for severe weather for Cape Cod and the Islands. NWS Taunton is in agreement with this assessment. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but an isolated tornado or two remain possible as a secondary threat.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 1 PM for this potentially significant severe weather event and SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any convection that could organize ahead of the warm front. ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the situation and seek advice from local leadership. Severe Weather Safety Rules should be reviewed ahead of any severe weather activity. The next coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Tuesday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Area Forecast Discussion, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and NWS Taunton Severe Weather Preparedness Week Information to review severe weather safety rules:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and Graphics:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1506221732.acus02.html
http://weather.cod.edu/text/products/spc/conOutlookGraphic.php?load=d2-graphic
http://weather.cod.edu/text/products/spc/conOutlookGraphic.php?load=d2-prob

NWS Taunton Public Information Statements – Severe Weather Preparedness Week:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/severe_weather_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Severe Weather Preparedness Week Web Page:
http://www.weather.gov/box/SevereWeatherPreparednessWeek

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday June 23rd 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and extreme Northwest Rhode Island. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but a secondary threat for an isolated tornado or two is also possible. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather further east..
..Threat will be contingent on any cloud debris from any shower and thunderstorm activity that occurs Tuesday Morning and how much destabilization occurs. Many other parameters look quite favorable for severe weather potential including very strong wind shear profiles. This is the most favorable severe weather setup modeled for the spring/summer 2015 season with the understanding that predicting severe weather threats 36-48 hours particularly in Southern New England are more difficult than nor’easter and other major storm events..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message with further details will be posted by 1100 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

NWS Taunton Graphic:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/cwa_template_severe_002.jpg

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Post Tropical Cyclone Bill Impacts – Sunday June 21st, 2015

Hello to all..

..Post Tropical Cyclone Bill will have the potential to bring a soaking rainfall to much of Southern New England with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding in Southeastern New England..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for Southeast Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Rhode Island except for Block Island RI from 4 AM Sunday through Sunday Afternoon for 1.5-3 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts possible. If the rain falls in a short enough period of time, urban and poor drainage flooding issues could develop..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rain gauge reports and the urban and poor drainage flood potential Sunday Morning through mid-afternoon..

Post Tropical Cyclone Bill will pass close enough to Southern New England to bring a widespread soaking rainfall to much of Southern New England with the heaviest rainfall of 1.5 to possibly as much as 3″ with isolated higher amounts possible in Southeast New England. A Flood Watch is now in effect for Southeast Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Rhode Island except for Block Island RI from 4 AM Sunday through Sunday Afternoon. If the rain falls in a short enough period of time, urban and poor drainage flooding could develop particularly in locations in Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts that have these kind of issues in these scenarios.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rain gauge reports and the urban and poor drainage flood potential Sunday Morning through mid-afternoon. This will likely be the only coordination message for this event unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Post Tropical Cyclone Bill Advisory Statement:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

WPC Post Tropical Cyclone Bill Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.wtnt32.KWNH.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday June 12th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible over Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and extended into portions of Southern New Hampshire for late Friday Afternoon into Friday Night and the Storm Prediction Center has continued a marginal risk for severe weather for this timeframe. Specifically, the timeframe for severe weather is between 5 PM to 10 PM possibly lasting as long as midnight Friday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 5 PM Friday Afternoon..

A warm front will push northward through Southern New England. Presuming sufficient heating, the atmosphere will destabilize across Northern Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts and into Southern New Hampshire. While the cold front will be further west and will not push through until the overnight hours, wind profiles coupled with expected atmospheric destabilization and other parameters should set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms late Friday Afternoon and evening across Western New England. SPC has placed Northern Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire in a marginal risk for severe weather and the timeframe is between 5-10 PM possibly lasting as long as midnight Friday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 5 PM Friday Afternoon. This will be the last coordination message on Friday’s severe weather potential unless a significant change to the situation has occurred. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday June 12th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible over Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and extended into portions of Southern New Hampshire for late Friday Afternoon into Friday Night and the Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in a marginal risk for severe weather for this timeframe. Specifically, the timeframe for severe weather is between 4 PM to Midnight Friday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely Friday Afternoon and Evening. Another more complete coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1506111738.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday June 9th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible to likely Tuesday afternoon and evening across much of interior Southern New England north and west of a Boston to Providence line. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has upgraded interior Southern New England north and west of the Boston to Providence line to a slight risk for severe weather..
..Threat timeframe is from 3-9 PM across the region and is contingent on the degree of heating and destabilization for our area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230-300 PM EDT..

At 930 AM, Satellite imagery shows an area of clearing in Central New York and Central Pennsylvania moving east and east-northeast into Southern New England. If this clearing can make it into Southern New England and allow for sufficient heating and destabilization, the strong wind fields aloft ahead of an approaching cold front would set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of interior Southern New England, north and west of a Boston to Providence line with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has upgraded interior Southern New England north and west of the Boston to Providence line to a slight risk for severe weather. The threat timeframe is from 3-9 PM across the region and is again, contingent on the degree of heating and destabilization for our area. If cloud cover remains over the area, the severe weather potential is more limited but if clearing occurs as expected, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230-300 PM EDT. This will be the last coordination message on the Tuesday Severe Weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement on the Severe Weather Potential, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday June 9th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across much of interior Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather. The degree of the severe weather potential will be contingent on any clearing that can develop from debris clouds from overnight showers and possible thunderstorms and degree of instability based on the amount of clearing. Wind fields are more than sufficient for severe weather if enough instability can develop..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Another more complete coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1506081731.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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