Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 7/30/15 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely across much of Southern New England Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats anytime after 2 PM Thursday..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a marginal risk for severe weather for Western, Central and parts of interior Northeast Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut for Thursday Afternoon and Evening and this extends through much of Northern New England as well..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 PM EDT lasting through early evening to monitor this potential..

After several days of pockets of severe weather and flooding across parts of Southern New England, Wednesday was dry across the region though hot and humid. At 710 AM Thursday, Doppler Radar showed a line of convective showers over West-Central New York State associated with a cold front that will be making its way through the region during the afternoon and evening hours with the hot and humid out ahead of the front. Satellite imagery shows some cloud cover ahead of this line but also some breaks in those clouds as well which should allow for destabilization. This should set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats anytime after 2 PM Thursday. The extent of any severe threat remains contingent on whether the wind shear lags the cold front or is along and head of the cold front and any significant cloud cover that will inhibit instability. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a marginal risk for severe weather over Western, Central and parts of interior Northeast Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut for Thursday Afternoon and Evening and this extends through much of Northern New England as well.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 PM EDT lasting through early evening to monitor this potential. This will be the last coordination message on today’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday July 30th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely across much of Southern New England Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats anytime after 2 PM Thursday..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western, Central and parts of interior Northeast Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather for Thursday Afternoon and Evening and this extends through much of Northern New England as well..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 PM EDT lasting through early evening to monitor this potential..

After several days of pockets of severe weather and flooding across parts of Southern New England, Wednesday was dry across the region though hot and humid. On Thursday, a cold front will be making its way through the region during the afternoon and evening hours with the hot and humid out ahead of the front. This should set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats anytime after 2 PM Thursday. The extent of any severe threat is whether the wind shear lags the cold front or is along and head of the cold front and any cloud cover that will inhibit instability. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western, Central and parts of interior Northeast Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather for Thursday Afternoon and Evening and this extends through much of Northern New England as well.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 PM EDT lasting through early evening to monitor this potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 900 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2015/day2otlk_20150729_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday July 28th, 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely today particularly in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island but possibly as far west as West-Central Massachusetts and parts of Northern Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Threat timeframe will be after 100 PM today through 900 PM and will be contingent on a sufficient triggering mechanism from either an impulse in the atmosphere or a seabreeze front to tap into high instability and adequate wind shear levels and to overcome any mid-level dry air that could limit updraft potential..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 130 PM EDT..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday July 27th 2015 Strong to Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong Thunderstorms likely today with an isolated severe thunderstorm or two possible today. Threat area appears to be across Eastern New England but cannot rule out a few strong thunderstorms in the western part of the coverage area as well. Frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but strong winds and hail are possible in a couple of thunderstorms. Overnight thunderstorms in Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts resulted in a few spots receiving 1-2″ of rain in a 1.5-3 hour period along with frequent lightning causing a few power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor ongoing activity this morning in Southeast New England. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will start at Noon today through early this evening to monitor the strong to severe weather potential for today. This will be the only coordination message on today’s strong to severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday July 26th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms possible across interior Southern New England through Northeast Coastal Massachusetts this Sunday Afternoon into early evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats anytime after 2 PM this afternoon..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 2 PM this afternoon lasing through early evening..

At 1025 AM Sunday Morning, an area of weakening showers is moving southeast across Southern New England. Behind this activity, an area of clearing will work into Southern New England. This will allow instability to increase rapidly and significantly over the area. A limiting factor however is that the stronger shear that is currently over the area and will be departing the area as the instability increases with wind shear becoming lighter with time. While the weakening shear is likely to limit a significant outbreak, the higher instability levels and the remaining shear that is in place is likely to set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across interior Southern New England through Northeast Coastal Massachusetts anytime after 2 PM this afternoon with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The latest SPC outlook upgraded much of Southern New England from a general thunderstorm risk to a marginal risk for severe weather this Sunday afternoon and evening.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 2 PM this afternoon lasing through early evening. This will be the only coordination message on the Sunday severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message # 2 – Friday July 24th, 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely particularly in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island but possibly extending westward into other parts of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 200 PM today..

As heating occurs today, a cold pool of air via an upper level low pressure system will move south and southeast into Southern New England. This will create instability in the atmosphere with sufficient wind shear to produce isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms particularly in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island but could extend westward into other parts of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. SPC has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening. This weather setup may provide for a lot of hail reports near or just under the 1″ hail severe criteria along with isolated pockets of wind damage.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 200 PM today. This will be the last coordination message on today’s threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday July 24th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and possibly other parts of Southern New England Friday Afternoon and Evening as a upper level low brings a cold pool of air aloft to the area. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence at 2 PM EDT Friday lasting through early evening. A more detailed coordination message will follow on Friday Morning by 9 AM EDT. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Special Announcement: 2.3 Magnitude Earthquake 1 Mile/2 Kilometers Southeast of Provdience RI

Hello to all..

A small earthquake/earth tremor, magnitude 2.3 on the Richter Scale occurred at 343 AM local time 1 mile/2 Kilometers Southeast of Providence RI. Details including maps can be seen via the following link from the United States Geological Survey:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/dyfi/events/ld/60096961/us/index.html

If you felt this earthquake, the USGS has a questionnaire that can be filled out. The link provided has an embedded link that says “Did you feel it – tell us!” and has questions that can be answered and a comment field for other comments that you’d like to make if you felt this earthquake. This information can be used in future research on earth tremors and earthquakes in Southern New England. No damage or injuries have been reported.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday July 20th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Marginal Risk for Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms this mid-afternoon and evening across Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts especially along and south of the I-95 corridor. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the threat. As of 300 PM, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Northeast New London County CT until 400 PM. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement regarding this severe thunderstorm and the NWS Brookhaven, NY Severe Thunderstorm Warning for New London County Connecticut. There have already been wind damage reports in Lebanon, CT with this severe thunderstorm..

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Brookhaven New York Severe Thunderstorm Warning for New London County CT:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOKX/1507201901.wuus51.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday Evening 7/19/15-Eary Monday Morning 7/20/15 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Potential exists for a significant severe weather outbreak across much of the NWS Taunton coverage area as well as adjoining coverage areas from mid to late Sunday Afternoon through early Monday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded and upgraded the severe weather risk across Southern New England. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The situation could evolve from Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms during the early part of the Sunday severe weather potential time period and then potentially evolve into a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that will track over much of New England especially north of the Mass Pike but all of Southern New England has a potential risk for severe weather..
..Pictures and video of damage and conditions can be sent as a reply to this message, via the pictures email address of pics@nsradio.org and via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds. Even pictures and video sent a day or several days after the event can be of use in providing information for the historical record of the event and for situational awareness and disaster intelligence purposes. Credit will be given to the Amateur Radio Operator/SKYWARN Spotters for the pictures and will be shared with emergency management, non-governmental organizations, media and posted on the WX1BOX Facebook page unless otherwise noted..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 400 PM and as early as 200 PM with operations extending into at least a portion of the overnight hours. ARES/RACES and Emergency Management groups should closely monitor the progress of today’s severe weather potential including the potential for severe weather to extend into the overnight hours..

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded and slid the severe weather risk further east. An enhanced risk for severe weather is forecast for Western Massachusetts, South-Central New Hampshire, South-Central Vermont and back into Eastern New York. Surrounding the enhanced risk area there is a slight risk for severe weather across Northern Connecticut, Central and Northeast Massachusetts. Surrounding the Slight risk area, there is a marginal risk for severe weather for the rest of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. NWS Taunton is in agreement with the assessment. These risk areas could change in configuration and be adjusted in category over the course of the day as thunderstorms begin to develop and their movement and organization is determined.

Intense heat and humidity will affect the region today. Initially, all levels of the atmosphere will be quite warm. This will initially “cap” convection from occurring. As we get into the timeframe as early as mid-late afternoon, cooling in the upper levels of the atmosphere will start taking place. With the intense heat and humidity in place and the cooling aloft occurring as a cold front approaches the region, wind shear will initially be modest but enough when combined with very high instability in place in the region to allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the highlighted risk areas for severe weather. The question then becomes whether this activity will organize into a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms known as a Mesoscale Convective System or MCS as wind shear will increase over time as we get into the early evening and overnight hours with intense instability remaining in place even after the time of peak heating.

Weather models even at short range and even with some of the high resolution models we have today can have trouble both with timing the severe weather and where the systems organize and track. Some computer models keep the activity just north of Southern New England while others track the activity into the northern half of Southern New England or even all the way to the Southern New England coastline. Some weather models get activity going as early as mid-afternoon while other computer models highlight the threat more towards evening.

Given this type of scenario, its imperative that situation be monitored very closely with the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak with widespread pockets of wind damage, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. There is still the chance that activity is more isolated or scattered but given the potential for a more significant outbreak and that being a more likely scenario at this time, it needs to be considered from a preparedness perspective and if it does not occur, it serves as good practice for a situation that ends up being a more significant severe weather outbreak later in the season. Since activity could last into the late evening and a portion of the overnight hours, SKYWARN Spotters, Amateur Radio Operators and Emergency Management folks should have their NOAA All Hazards Radio set to alert them to a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for their area or use other such computer based systems to alert them to any impending severe weather for your specific local area during overnight hours.

Pictures and video of damage and conditions can be sent as a reply to this message, via the pictures email address of pics@nsradio.org and via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds. Even pictures and video sent a day or several days after the event can be of use in providing information for the historical record of the event and for situational awareness and disaster intelligence purposes. Credit will be given to the Amateur Radio Operator/SKYWARN Spotters for the pictures and will be shared with emergency management, non-governmental organizations, media and posted on the WX1BOX Facebook page unless otherwise noted.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 400 PM and as early as 200 PM with operations extending into at least a portion of the overnight hours. ARES/RACES and Emergency Management groups should closely monitor the progress of today’s severe weather potential including the potential for severe weather to extend into the overnight hours. As we move into operations mode, this will likely be the last coordination message for this severe weather potential but if the severe weather potential is a bit later this evening and time allows, an updated coordination message in some form could be posted by 600 PM. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Special Weather Statement and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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