Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday Evening 7/18/15 & Sunday Evening 7/19/15-Eary Monday Morning 7/20/15 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur this Saturday Evening across Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut between 530 and 10 PM this evening. Strong winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..A more widespread and potentially significant severe weather outbreak is possible Sunday Evening into the overnight hours Sunday Night into early Monday Morning. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of western and central New England into a marginal to slight risk for severe weather and it is possible these risk areas could be expanded further east and upgraded as things evolve with a cold front and a potential complex of severe thunderstorms that will organize in New York State and spread east through the Sunday Evening and Sunday Night into early Monday Morning overnight hours..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions for Saturday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence by 6 or 7 PM Sunday Evening potentially lasting into a portion of the overnight hours for the potential severe weather outbreak..

After a few thunderstorms Saturday Afternoon moved through the area with heavy rainfall and frequent lightning, clearing has taken place across much of Western New England with new thunderstorms organizing in New York State. Instability will be present given clearing over the area but wind shear is marginal. These conditions may allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms from Eastern New York to move into Western New England before the loss of sunshine and daytime heating causes thunderstorms to weaken as they move east. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.

For Sunday, intense heat and humidity will be across all of Southern New England. This will lead to high heat indices across much of Southern New England. The atmosphere will be capped during the day but as we get into the evening, cooling aloft will take place ahead of an approaching cold front with strong wind shear and high instability due to the intense heat of the day could lead to a potentially significant severe weather outbreak for Sunday Evening into the overnight hours Sunday through early Monday Morning despite the timing being past the time of peak heating into the evening and overnight hours. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of western and central New England into a marginal to slight risk for severe weather weather and there is the potential for the risk areas to shift further east and be upgraded further with a potential complex of strong to severe thunderstorms moving through the region followed by more isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity as we get into the early morning Monday timeframe. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions for Saturday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence by 6 or 7 PM Sunday Evening potentially lasting into a portion of the overnight hours for the potential severe weather outbreak. The next coordination message regarding the Sunday Evening and overnight hour severe weather potential will be issued by 1030 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2015/day2otlk_20150718_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday July 8th 2015 Flood/Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Wednesday in the late morning through early evening across much of Southern New England. Urban, poor drainage to possibly small stream flooding is the main threat but isolated localized damaging winds or wet microbursts are also possible similar to what occurred in South Deerfield, MA on Tuesday..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Wednesday Morning to Wednesday Evening for Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island except for Block Island for the potential of localized urban and poor drainage flooding to possibly small stream flooding where thunderstorms can produce 1-2″ or more of rainfall in an hour. This Flash Flood Watch could be expanded to other areas on Wednesday depending on where potential strong thunderstorms can setup..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence at 1100 AM Wednesday to monitor this potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement regarding Tuesday’s microburst in South Deerfield, Mass and the flooding in the Greenfield, Mass area..

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Tuesday July 7th 2015 Severe Weather and Flooding:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1507080157.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – South Deerfield, Mass Microburst:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1507080320.nous41.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Special Announcement: ARRL Hurricane Webinar and NWS Taunton Hurricane Workshops

Hello to all..

This special announcement is to cover some opportunities on hurricane education open to all SKYWARN Spotters, Amateur Radio Operators and the general public in July 2015. This announcement covers an ARRL Hurricane Webinar as well as the NWS Taunton Hurricane Workshops being offered across the south coast of Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

The American Radio Relay League, ARRL, will be offering a Hurricane Webinar on Monday July 20th, 2015 from 8-930 PM. Details on the hurricane webinar and registration information can be seen via the following link:
http://www.arrl.org/news/arrl-2015-hurricane-season-webinar-set-for-july-20

NWS Taunton will be sponsoring hurricane workshops across the South Coast of Rhode Island and Massachusetts. For the Hurricane Workshop on Monday July 20th in Newport RI, pre-registration is required. For the Massachusetts sessions, no pre-registration is needed. Details on the workshops, can be seen at the following links:

Newport RI Hurricane Workshop – Note Pre-registration link in the PDF Document:
http://www.weather.gov/media/box/officePrograms/outreach/salveregina-final.pdf

Massachusetts Hurricane Workshops:
http://www.weather.gov/media/box/officePrograms/outreach/combinedmacor.pdf

The hurricane workshops provide an opportunity to be reminded on the safety and preparedness information for hurricanes and tropical storms. In the last few years, tropical systems such as Irene and Sandy have affected the region and had potent impacts but their impacts to Southern New England were on the scale of strong tropical storms and the last hurricane to directly impact Southern New England was Hurricane Bob in 1991. While the seasonal forecasts are calling for a below average number of tropical systems, it only takes one hurricane with the ‘right’ track and intensity to make it a ‘bad season’ for a given location. These hurricane workshops are a means to remind of ourselves of safety and preparedness and to also report in weather conditions per the SKYWARN reporting criteria if a hurricane or tropical system strikes Southern New England.

We hope folks can attend one of the hurricane workshops and the ARRL Hurricane Webinar over the course of this month.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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