Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday Evening 8/3/15-Tuesday Evening 8/4/15 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible especially very late tonight and over the course of the day Tuesday Through late afternoon/early evening Tuesday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall are the main threats. Coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms as well as the timing are very uncertain..
..Nocturnal or overnight convection is possible or convection could be more prevalent during the morning through mid-late afternoon hours on Tuesday and will be monitored closely. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed extreme Western Massachusetts in a Slight Risk for severe weather with a marginal risk of severe weather out to the CT River Valley of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut through 800 AM EDT Tuesday. SPC has placed much of Southern New England along or just west of the CT River Valley east through the Southern New England coast in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather with an upgrade to a slight risk of severe weather possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather threat this evening through the overnight hours. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible as early as the first part of Tuesday Morning lasting through early Tuesday Evening..

A complex thunderstorm and severe weather situation is evolving for Southern New England beginning this Monday Evening and lasting through early Tuesday Evening. One marginally severe thunderstorm was warned on for Western Franklin County Massachusetts earlier this Monday Evening. Any reports from that storm is welcomed. A cold front is slowing down and working its way across New York State and Northern New England. Much of the severe weather and thunderstorm activity has stayed north and west of the NWS Taunton coverage area except for the one cell that went into Western Franklin County Massachusetts. It is anticipated that much of the activity for this evening will stay west of the NWS Taunton coverage area through around midnight.

As we move towards midnight Tuesday and the overnight hours, instability will actually increase despite it being nighttime as dewpoints increase. The front will continue to make progress towards Southern New England. This may allow thunderstorm activity to move further south and east into parts of the NWS Taunton coverage area. Typically, it is difficult to get strong to severe thunderstorms into this area during this timeframe but it is possible that isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur during the overnight hours in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut as the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook highlights. They also could remain west and north of these areas through the night.

Moving on to the Tuesday Morning near or after daybreak into the early evening hours, if any thunderstorm activity or cloud debris upstream does not occur, the atmosphere would be allow to destabilize. The cold front would then be closer to Southern New England to provide a triggering mechanism. This could set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England over the current SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook marginal risk area. As the Day-2 outlook highlights, how upstream convection evolves across Southern New England will affect any severe weather threat for Tuesday and there remains uncertainties. If activity remains north and west and conditions are able to destabilize with sufficient sunshine to allow for heating, an upgrade to a slight risk of severe weather may be needed. If cloud cover or thunderstorm activity occurs during the overnight along with any isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in western areas, the severe weather potential for Tuesday will be more marginal in nature. The evolution of any thunderstorms overnight will determine any severe weather potential on Tuesday. It is noted that the severe weather timeframe for Tuesday may be earlier than the typical timeframe for severe weather depending on how things evolve overnight with any thunderstorm activity as well as the front’s movement toward the region. Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could potentially start occurring as early as mid-late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday Evening.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather threat this evening through the overnight hours. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible as early as the first part of Tuesday Morning lasting through early Tuesday Evening. Depending on any overnight convection, a full coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Tuesday Morning. If there is overnight convection, a shortened coordination message may be issued if time allows and also if ops at NWS Taunton are initiated during the overnight or Tuesday Morning timeframe. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2015/day2otlk_20150803_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible especially very late tonight and over the course of the day Tuesday Through late afternoon/early evening Tuesday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall are the main threats. Coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms as well as the timing are very uncertain..
..Nocturnal or overnight convection is possible or convection could be more prevalent during the morning through mid-late afternoon hours on Tuesday and will be monitored closely. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed extreme Western Massachusetts in a Slight Risk for severe weather with a marginal risk of severe weather out to the CT River Valley of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut through 800 AM EDT Tuesday. SPC has placed much of Southern New England along or just west of the CT River Valley east through the Southern New England coast in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather with an upgrade to a slight risk of severe weather possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather threat this evening through the overnight hours. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible as early as the first part of Tuesday Morning lasting through early Tuesday Evening..

A complex thunderstorm and severe weather situation is evolving for Southern New England beginning this Monday Evening and lasting through early Tuesday Evening. One marginally severe thunderstorm was warned on for Western Franklin County Massachusetts earlier this Monday Evening. Any reports from that storm is welcomed. A cold front is slowing down and working its way across New York State and Northern New England. Much of the severe weather and thunderstorm activity has stayed north and west of the NWS Taunton coverage area except for the one cell that went into Western Franklin County Massachusetts. It is anticipated that much of the activity for this evening will stay west of the NWS Taunton coverage area through around midnight.

As we move towards midnight Tuesday and the overnight hours, instability will actually increase despite it being nighttime as dewpoints increase. The front will continue to make progress towards Southern New England. This may allow thunderstorm activity to move further south and east into parts of the NWS Taunton coverage area. Typically, it is difficult to get strong to severe thunderstorms into this area during this timeframe but it is possible that isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur during the overnight hours in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut as the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook highlights. They also could remain west and north of these areas through the night.

Moving on to the Tuesday Morning near or after daybreak into the early evening hours, if any thunderstorm activity or cloud debris upstream does not occur, the atmosphere would be allow to destabilize. The cold front would then be closer to Southern New England to provide a triggering mechanism. This could set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England over the current SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook marginal risk area. As the Day-2 outlook highlights, how upstream convection evolves across Southern New England will affect any severe weather threat for Tuesday and there remains uncertainties. If activity remains north and west and conditions are able to destabilize with sufficient sunshine to allow for heating, an upgrade to a slight risk of severe weather may be needed. If cloud cover or thunderstorm activity occurs during the overnight along with any isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in western areas, the severe weather potential for Tuesday will be more marginal in nature. The evolution of any thunderstorms overnight will determine any severe weather potential on Tuesday. It is noted that the severe weather timeframe for Tuesday may be earlier than the typical timeframe for severe weather depending on how things evolve overnight with any thunderstorm activity as well as the front’s movement toward the region. Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could potentially start occurring as early as mid-late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday Evening.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather threat this evening through the overnight hours. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible as early as the first part of Tuesday Morning lasting through early Tuesday Evening. Depending on any overnight convection, a full coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Tuesday Morning. If there is overnight convection, a shortened coordination message may be issued if time allows and also if ops at NWS Taunton are initiated during the overnight or Tuesday Morning timeframe. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2015/day2otlk_20150803_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Leave a Reply