Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Afternoon 10/28/15-Thursday Morning 10/29/15 Storm Potential
Hello to all..
..Strong Storm System will affect the region Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning. Strong to potentially damaging winds, minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide, heavy rainfall of 1-2″ with isolated higher rainfall amounts potentially causing urban and poor drainage flooding and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms that could enhance wind damage potential in localized areas are the main threats..
..It is noted that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather through the overnight hours and Eastern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather through late Thursday Morning..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands from 7 PM Wednesday Evening to 10 AM Thursday Morning for sustained winds of 25-40 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH with the possibility of even higher gusts especially with any strong thunderstorms that develop early Thursday Morning. Outside of the Wind Advisory area, wind gusts to 40 MPH are possible with stronger wind gusts in any isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms that develop in these areas. These winds may cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 10 AM-2 PM Wednesday and 11 PM Wednesday Night through 3 AM Thursday Morning for East Coastal Massachusetts for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide midday Wednesday. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM-12 AM Wednesday Night for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Wednesday Evening High Tide..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system and severe weather potential from Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday Morning. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible..
A strong storm system including the remnants of Hurricane Patricia are poised to move through Southern New England later Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday Morning. The storm system has the potential to bring strong to potentially damaging winds including strong to severe thunderstorm wind gusts, heavy rainfall and minor coastal flooding at the time of the high tide. The headlines of the coordination message mention the various advisories and the Marginal Risk for Severe thunderstorms over Southern New England through late Thursday Morning per SPC.
The extent of any pockets of wind damage will be determined by how much of the very strong winds aloft can reach the surface as well as any strong to even severe thunderstorm development or convective showers that can bring the strong winds down to the surface. How much those strong winds reach the surface will also affect the coastal flood potential for Wednesday Night into early Thursday Morning. At this time, minor shore road flooding and possibly a few road closures are possible in the Coastal Flood Advisory areas.
Heavy rainfall of 1-2″ with isolated higher amounts of 2-3″ are likely across all of Southern New England. This heavy rainfall may cause urban and poor drainage flooding in the typical locations.
The focus of this coordination message is in the Wednesday Afternoon to Thursday Morning timeframe, however, as we get into later Thursday Afternoon/early evening, there is the possibility of another round of strong winds and possibly even a few isolated thunderstorms. If this possibility becomes more certain, this will be covered in coordination messages either Wednesday Evening or late Thursday Morning.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system from Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday Morning. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible. Depending on the timing of the storm/severe weather evolution and SKYWARN Operations, another complete coordination message will be issued tonight or a shortened coordination message if time allows and Ops at NWS are initiated.
Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1, Day-2 Convective Outlooks:
NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: email@example.com
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