Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Afternoon 10/28/15-Thursday Morning 10/29/15 Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Strong Storm System will affect the region Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning. Strong to potentially damaging winds, minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide, heavy rainfall of 1-2″ with isolated higher rainfall amounts potentially causing urban and poor drainage flooding and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms that could enhance wind damage potential in localized areas are the main threats..
..It is noted that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather through the overnight hours and Eastern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather through late Thursday Morning..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands from 7 PM Wednesday Evening to 10 AM Thursday Morning for sustained winds of 25-40 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH with the possibility of even higher gusts especially with any strong thunderstorms that develop early Thursday Morning. Outside of the Wind Advisory area, wind gusts to 40 MPH are possible with stronger wind gusts in any isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms that develop in these areas. These winds may cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 10 AM-2 PM Wednesday and 11 PM Wednesday Night through 3 AM Thursday Morning for East Coastal Massachusetts for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide midday Wednesday. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM-12 AM Wednesday Night for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Wednesday Evening High Tide..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system and severe weather potential from Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday Morning. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible..

A strong storm system including the remnants of Hurricane Patricia are poised to move through Southern New England later Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday Morning. The storm system has the potential to bring strong to potentially damaging winds including strong to severe thunderstorm wind gusts, heavy rainfall and minor coastal flooding at the time of the high tide. The headlines of the coordination message mention the various advisories and the Marginal Risk for Severe thunderstorms over Southern New England through late Thursday Morning per SPC.

The extent of any pockets of wind damage will be determined by how much of the very strong winds aloft can reach the surface as well as any strong to even severe thunderstorm development or convective showers that can bring the strong winds down to the surface. How much those strong winds reach the surface will also affect the coastal flood potential for Wednesday Night into early Thursday Morning. At this time, minor shore road flooding and possibly a few road closures are possible in the Coastal Flood Advisory areas.

Heavy rainfall of 1-2″ with isolated higher amounts of 2-3″ are likely across all of Southern New England. This heavy rainfall may cause urban and poor drainage flooding in the typical locations.

The focus of this coordination message is in the Wednesday Afternoon to Thursday Morning timeframe, however, as we get into later Thursday Afternoon/early evening, there is the possibility of another round of strong winds and possibly even a few isolated thunderstorms. If this possibility becomes more certain, this will be covered in coordination messages either Wednesday Evening or late Thursday Morning.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system from Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday Morning. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible. Depending on the timing of the storm/severe weather evolution and SKYWARN Operations, another complete coordination message will be issued tonight or a shortened coordination message if time allows and Ops at NWS are initiated.

Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1, Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday Afternoon 10/28/15-Thursday Morning 10/29/15 Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Strong Storm System will affect the region Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning. Strong to potentially damaging winds, minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide and heavy rainfall, 1-2″ with isolated higher rainfall amounts potentially causing urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats as well as the possibility for strong thunderstorms to bring strong winds down to the surface..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands from 7 PM Wednesday Evening to 10 AM Thursday Morning for sustained winds of 25-40 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH with the possibility of even higher gusts especially with any strong thunderstorms that develop early Thursday Morning. Outside of the Wind Advisory area, wind gusts to 40 MPH are possible. These winds may cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 10 AM-2 PM Wednesday for East Coastal Massachusetts for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide midday Wednesday. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 7 PM-12 AM Wednesday Night for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Wednesday Evening High Tide..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system from Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday Morning. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible. An additional and more complete coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Wednesday Morning.  Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Wind Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday October 20th 2015 High Wind Event

Hello to all..

..Strong Southwest winds will end the recent cold snap in the area. These winds may be strong enough to cause isolated tree and wire damage on Cape Cod and the Islands. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 7 AM to 7 PM Tuesday for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH. Along coastal areas near the Wind Advisory area, wind gusts to 40 MPH are possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong winds for Tuesday. This will be the only coordination message on the strong winds unless a significant change to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 10/9/15 Severe Weather/Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to possibly even severe thunderstorms possible later this afternoon and evening across portions of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds are the main threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with the potential for an upgrade to a slight risk for severe weather later today. In addition, strong wind gusts to 40 MPH with isolated stronger wind gusts will be possible ahead of and behind the cold front that will have the potential to cause the isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the thunderstorm and strong wind potential for today. This will be the only coordination message on this potential unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Storm and Hurricane Joaquin Coordination Message #7

Hello to all..

..Storm system for Friday produced heavy rainfall and strong winds in Southeast New England with minor coastal flooding in East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Strong Winds and another round of minor coastal flooding is likely for East Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for the Saturday Afternoon High Tide. Southern New England is now expected to see little to no direct impacts from Hurricane Joaquin though monitoring will continue through early afternoon Saturday..
..A Wind Advisory in effect through 11 AM Saturday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect through 3 PM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH for Nantucket Island. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East Coastal Massachusetts may reach around 40 MPH through midday Saturday..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 3-6 PM EDT Saturday Afternoon/Evening for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday Late Afternoon to early Evening high tide..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong winds and minor coastal flood threat for Saturday. After Saturday, no further SKYWARN Activation’s of any kind appear to be needed as Hurricane Joaquin is currently expected to stay offshore..

The Friday storm system brought 1-3″ of rainfall to Southeast Coastal New England and wind gusts in the 45-50 MPH range across South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands. Strong winds will continue through midday to mid-afternoon Saturday across Southeastern New England. A Wind Advisory in effect through 11 AM Saturday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect through 3 PM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH for Nantucket Island. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East Coastal Massachusetts may reach around 40 MPH through midday Saturday.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 3-6 PM EDT for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday Late Afternoon to Early Evening high tide. The level of minor coastal flooding will be similar or slightly more than what was experienced on Friday.

After several additional model runs through the day Friday, the spread in model guidance, while still there, is closer to the norm for any tropical system and the track of Hurricane Joaquin appears more certain and will most likely be out to sea south and east of Southern New England. This will mean little to no impact for Southern New England other than rip currents and swells at the coast. Monitoring of model runs through mid-afternoon Saturday will occur but the recent model trends has been quite solid over the course of Friday leading to higher confidence that the track guidance well offshore of New England will be the most likely path. Nonetheless, this will be monitored through mid-afternoon Saturday and beyond as needed. This will be the last coordination message on Hurricane Joaquin barring a significant change to the track meaning more impact to any part of Southern New England.

WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center, and the Hurricane Watch Net stood down operations during the afternoon and evening. The damage on Rum Cay and San Salvador Bahamas is very significant as the hurricane force conditions lasted close to 1-1.5 days causing very significant damage in this area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong winds and minor coastal flood threat for Saturday. After Saturday, no further SKYWARN Activation’s of any kind appear to be needed as Hurricane Joaquin is currently expected to stay offshore. This will likely be the last coordination message on Saturday’s expected strong winds and minor coastal flooding and Hurricane Joaquin unless something changes of significance with the Saturday weather or the track of Hurricane Joaquin. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook followed by the National Hurricane Center Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Statements:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Natipnal Hurricane Center – Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Information:

Hurricane Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Storm and Hurricane Joaquin Coordination Message #6

Hello to all..

..Storm system for Friday into early Saturday will have the potential to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to Southeast New England and another threat of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Friday Afternoon for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 2 PM Friday to 11 AM Saturday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect through 3 PM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH for Nantucket Island. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI from 2 PM Friday through 11 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East and South Coastal of Massachusetts may reach 40 MPH through the day Friday into Saturday Morning..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 1-5 PM EDT Friday Afternoon for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Friday Afternoon high tide..
..Focus then shifts to Hurricane Joaquin. Models consensus has shifted east over the course of Thursday but there is still wide model spread and we remain around 3-4 days out from impact, if any, from Joaquin and interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Joaquin..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the Friday storm system. SKYWARN Activation status for late this weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and any threat of Hurricane Joaquin..

Another storm system will have the potential to bring strong winds and another 1-3″ of rainfall. At this time, this looks centered across Southeast New England to maybe as far north as the Mass Pike and south to the coast. A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 2 PM Friday to 11 AM Saturday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect through 3 PM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH for Nantucket Island. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI from 2 PM Friday through 11 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East and South Coastal of Massachusetts may reach 40 MPH through the day Friday into Saturday Morning.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 1-5 PM EDT Friday Afternoon for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Friday Afternoon high tide. The stronger winds especially over Cape Cod and the Islands may result in a few more minor coastal flood reports than what occurred Thursday.

This brings us to the tougher part of the time period of active weather which is Hurricane Joaquin. Joaquin remains a major hurricane and is pummeling the Bahamas with an extended period of hurricane force conditions. Joaquin is expected to hold its intensity over the next couple days followed by slow weakening. Overnight, some of the models, including the European model have trended a bit more west. It is unclear if this trend will continue or will stop and remain an offshore solution and there still is a larger spread than normal in the different model guidance. More model runs from today will help lend confidence into the track of Joaquin. We remind everyone that impacts, if any, from Hurricane Joaquin are still 3-4 days out and the interaction of Joaquin with the stalled out cold front, an upper low moving into the Southeast US and the high pressure system to the east is quite complex and fluctuations in model tracks may continue to occur. Interests in Southern New England should continue to monitor the track of Hurricane Joaquin through midday Saturday to see if the current trend holds or if changes occur. Additional synoptic scale missions will occur today into Friday with data ingested into the next model suites which should hopefully provide better guidance and better consensus in the model data. The key messages as listed in the Technical Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Center best describe the concerns for Hurricane Joaquin particularly with the active weather pattern of this week that has developed over the region.

It is noted that National Hurricane Center Director, Dr. Rick Knabb and FEMA Administrator, KK4INZ-Craig Fugate both praised the efforts of WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, and the Hurricane Watch Net which are active with Hurricane Joaquin pummeling the Bahamas. The VoIP Hurricane Net has no paths directly to Amateur Radio Operators in the Bahamas but have been monitoring social media and the storm bloggers site, stormcarib.com to gather additional reports from the Bahamas. Links to the NHC director’s comments, KK4INZ-Craig Fugate’s comments and the Hurricane Net Operations can be seen via the links below:

KK4INZ-Craig Fugate visit to WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
https://twitter.com/CraigatFEMA/status/649659043489935360

Dr. Rick Knabb – Director of National Hurricane Center Comments:
https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/status/649671276609585152

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the Friday storm system. SKYWARN Activation status for late this weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and any threat of Hurricane Joaquin. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Friday. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook followed by the National Hurricane Center Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Statements:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Natipnal Hurricane Center – Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Information:

Hurricane Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Storm and Hurricane Joaquin Coordination Message #5

Hello to all..

..Another storm system will have the potential to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to Southeast New England and another threat of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Friday Afternoon for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect from 2 AM Friday to 2 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH for Nantucket Island. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI from 2 PM Friday through 2 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East and South Coastal of Massachusetts may reach 40 MPH through the day Friday..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 1-5 PM EDT Friday Afternoon for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Friday Afternoon high tide..
..Focus then shifts to Hurricane Joaquin. Models consensus has shifted east over the course of Thursday but there is still wide model spread and we remain around 4 days out from impact, if any, from Joaquin and interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Joaquin..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the Friday storm system. SKYWARN Activation status for late this weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and any threat of Hurricane Joaquin..

Thursday’s high tide cycle brought minor splashover and a few shore road closures in parts of East Coastal Massachusetts. Also, late Thursday evening, wind gusts in the 40-45 MPH range have been observed on Nantucket Island and parts of East Coastal Massachusetts ahead of the next storm system.

On Friday, another storm system will have the potential to bring strong winds and another 1-3″ of rainfall. At this time, this looks centered across Southeast New England to maybe as far north as the Mass Pike and south to the coast. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 2 AM Friday to 2 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH for Nantucket Island. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI from 2 PM Friday through 2 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East and South Coastal of Massachusetts may reach 40 MPH through the day Friday. There is the potential that these strong winds could continue into Saturday and will be monitored.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 1-5 PM EDT Friday Afternoon for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Friday Afternoon high tide. The stronger winds especially over Cape Cod and the Islands may result in a few more minor coastal flood reports than what occurred Thursday.

This brings us to the tougher part of the time period of active weather which is Hurricane Joaquin. Joaquin remains a major hurricane and is pummeling the Bahamas with an extended period of hurricane force conditions. Joaquin is expected to hold its intensity over the next couple days followed by slow weakening. The general model trend through the day Thursday has kept trending eastward with a bit more consensus in the model guidance pointing to an offshore solution, however, there remains several reliable hurricane and operational models that keep a track closer to the US East Coast and we remain 4 days away from impact, if any, from Hurricane Joaquin and the interaction of Joaquin with the stalled out cold front, an upper low moving into the Southeast US and the high pressure system to the east of the ridge is quite complex and fluctuations in model tracks may continue to occur. Interests in Southern New England should continue to monitor the track of Hurricane Joaquin through Friday Evening and into Saturday Morning to see if the current trend holds or if changes occur. The spread in the model consensus continues to be large though not as large as earlier this morning. Additional synoptic scale missions will occur today into Friday with data ingested into the next model suites which should hopefully provide better guidance and better consensus in the model data. The key messages as listed in the Technical Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Center best describe the concerns for Hurricane Joaquin particularly with the active weather pattern of this week that has developed over the region.

It is noted that National Hurricane Center Director, Dr. Rick Knabb and FEMA Administrator, KK4INZ-Craig Fugate both praised the efforts of WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, and the Hurricane Watch Net which are active with Hurricane Joaquin pummeling the Bahamas. The VoIP Hurricane Net has no paths directly to Amateur Radio Operators in the Bahamas but have been monitoring social media and the storm bloggers site, stormcarib.com to gather additional reports from the Bahamas. Links to the NHC director’s comments, KK4INZ-Craig Fugate’s comments and the Hurricane Net Operations can be seen via the links below:

KK4INZ-Craig Fugate visit to WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
https://twitter.com/CraigatFEMA/status/649659043489935360

Dr. Rick Knabb – Director of National Hurricane Center Comments:
https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/status/649671276609585152

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the Friday storm system. SKYWARN Activation status for late this weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and any threat of Hurricane Joaquin. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Friday. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook followed by the Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Statements:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Information:

Hurricane Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Storm and Hurricane Joaquin Coordination Message #4

Hello to all..

..Updated Hurricane Joaquin section. Remainder is unchanged..
..The Wednesday Storm System dumps 2-5″ of rain with isolated higher amounts across much of Southern New England with pockets of coastal flooding, river/stream/urban flooding and pockets of wind damage up to 50 MPH in portions of Southern New England particularly in Southeast New England and East Coastal Massachusetts..
..Thursday will bring wind gusts of 30-40 MPH and a round of minor coastal flooding to East Coastal Massachusetts. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from Noon-4 PM EDT for East Coastal Massachusetts Cape Cod and the Islands for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Thursday Afternoon high tide..
..Friday will bring another storm system with strong winds and heavy rainfall centered across Southeast New England followed by a lull on Saturday though strong northeast winds at the coast may bring another round of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts..
..Focus then shifts to Hurricane Joaquin and potential impact to the US East Coast from North Carolina northward. It remains too early to get into specifics regarding Joaquin but interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Joaquin..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the high tide for Thursday Afternoon in East Coastal Massachusetts. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday. SKYWARN Activation status for the weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and threat of Hurricane Joaquin or its remnants..

The Wednesday storm system packed a fairly potent punch for Southern New England. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5″ were common with isolated higher amounts across Southern New England. Pockets of coastal flooding were reported along parts of South Coastal Massachusetts with river, stream and urban flooding reports as well. Wind gusts were as high as 50 MPH across portions of Southern New England, particularly in Southeast New England and East Coastal Massachusetts. Below is the latest NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement on rainfall and wind measurements and the storm log kept during the SKYWARN Self-Activation for Wednesday’s storm:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

SKYWARN Self-Activation Storm Log:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/reports_9_30_15.txt

Thursday will bring a strong east-northeast flow of wind with wind gusts up to 40 MPH likely. At this time, winds will remain below Wind Advisory criteria. The strong winds out of the east-northeast and the high astronomical tide will bring the risk of coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands with a Coastal Flood Advisory from Noon-4 PM EDT Thursday. Reports of minor coastal flooding would be helpful during the Thursday Afternoon high tide cycle.

On Friday, another storm system will have the potential to bring strong winds and another 1-3″ of rainfall. At this time, this looks centered across Southeast New England to maybe as far north as the Mass Pike and south to the coast. Future model runs will bring this into more focus. Another round of minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding will be possible at the time of high tide. On Saturday, there will be a lull in the rainfall as well as winds in the interior but strong northeast winds at the coast may bring another round of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands.

This brings us to the tougher part of the time period of active weather which is Hurricane Joaquin. Joaquin remains a major hurricane and will be moving towards the Bahamas within 24 hours. Joaquin is expected to continue to intensify over the next day or two and then hold similar intensity over the next few days thereafter. The model spread remains divergent despite the G-IV Recon surveillance data that was ingested to the models. The general model trend though has been with a further north but also further east track in some of the non-tropical operational models with the reliable European model continues to keep Joaquin well over open waters. The spread in the model consensus continues to be large but there still remains a potential threat to the US East coast. Additional synoptic scale missions will occur today with data ingested into the next model suites which should hopefully provide better guidance and better consensus in the model data. Interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Joaquin. The key messages as listed in the Technical Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Center best describe the concerns for Hurricane Joaquin particularly with the active weather pattern of this week that has developed over the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the high tide for Thursday Afternoon in East Coastal Massachusetts. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday. SKYWARN Activation status for the weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and threat of Hurricane Joaquin or its remnants. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 PM Thursday. Below is the NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook followed by the Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Statements:

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Information:

Hurricane Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Storm and Hurricane Joaquin Coordination Message #3

Hello to all..

..The Wednesday Storm System dumps 2-5″ of rain with isolated higher amounts across much of Southern New England with pockets of coastal flooding, river/stream/urban flooding and pockets of wind damage up to 50 MPH in portions of Southern New England particularly in Southeast New England and East Coastal Massachusetts..
..Thursday will bring wind gusts of 30-40 MPH and a round of minor coastal flooding to East Coastal Massachusetts. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from Noon-4 PM EDT for East Coastal Massachusetts Cape Cod and the Islands for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Thursday Afternoon high tide..
..Friday will bring another storm system with strong winds and heavy rainfall centered across Southeast New England followed by a lull on Saturday though strong northeast winds at the coast may bring another round of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts..
..Focus then shifts to Hurricane Joaquin and potential impact to the US East Coast from North Carolina northward. It remains too early to get into specifics regarding Joaquin but interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Joaquin..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the high tide for Thursday Afternoon in East Coastal Massachusetts. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday. SKYWARN Activation status for the weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and threat of Hurricane Joaquin or its remnants..

The Wednesday storm system packed a fairly potent punch for Southern New England. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5″ were common with isolated higher amounts across Southern New England. Pockets of coastal flooding were reported along parts of South Coastal Massachusetts with river, stream and urban flooding reports as well. Wind gusts were as high as 50 MPH across portions of Southern New England, particularly in Southeast New England and East Coastal Massachusetts. Below is the latest NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement on rainfall and wind measurements and the storm log kept during the SKYWARN Self-Activation for Wednesday’s storm:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

SKYWARN Self-Activation Storm Log:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/reports_9_30_15.txt

Thursday will bring a strong east-northeast flow of wind with wind gusts up to 40 MPH likely. At this time, winds will remain below Wind Advisory criteria. The strong winds out of the east-northeast and the high astronomical tide will bring the risk of coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands with a Coastal Flood Advisory from Noon-4 PM EDT Thursday. Reports of minor coastal flooding would be helpful during the Thursday Afternoon high tide cycle.

On Friday, another storm system will have the potential to bring strong winds and another 1-3″ of rainfall. At this time, this looks centered across Southeast New England to maybe as far north as the Mass Pike and south to the coast. Future model runs will bring this into more focus. Another round of minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding will be possible at the time of high tide. On Saturday, there will be a lull in the rainfall as well as winds in the interior but strong northeast winds at the coast may bring another round of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands.

This brings us to the tougher part of the time period of active weather which is Hurricane Joaquin. Joaquin has now intensified into a major hurricane and will be moving towards the Bahamas within 24 hours. Joaquin is expected to continue to intensify over the next day or two and then hold similar intensity over the next few days thereafter. The model spread remains divergent with the reliable European model keeping it well over open waters but much of the rest of the model consensus implying a US East Coast hurricane threat. A synoptic scale mission launched today with data ingested into the next model suites should hopefully provide better guidance and better consensus in the model data. Interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Joaquin. The key messages as listed in the Technical Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Center best describe the concerns for Hurricane Joaquin particularly with the active weather pattern of this week that has developed over the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the high tide for Thursday Afternoon in East Coastal Massachusetts. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday. SKYWARN Activation status for the weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and threat of Hurricane Joaquin or its remnants. Another coordination message will be posted by 900 AM Thursday. Below is the NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook followed by the Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Statements:

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Information:

Hurricane Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more