Hello to all..
..Uncertainty lessening on potential winter storm outcomes for this weekend though continued slight storm track differences of just 30-50 miles can make the difference of heavier snow and stronger winds further north versus a much lighter snowfall and strong to damaging winds remaining in Southeast New England. The trend has been for heavier snowfall to trend northward through southern parts of Southern New England. Near Blizzard conditions likely in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Nantucket Island with blizzard conditions likely on Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI..
..A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for 1 PM Saturday Afternoon to 1 AM Sunday Morning for 8-12 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts to 14″ and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH with isolated higher gusts. The snow has the potential to be heavy and wet and combined with strong winds could cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 7 AM Sunday Morning for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands and Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island for 8-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 14″ and strong to damaging winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH and isolated higher gusts. The winds and potentially wet snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages and near blizzard conditions are likely..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 7 AM Sunday Morning for Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and strong winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH and isolated higher gusts. The winds and potentially wet snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages with considerable blowing and drifting snow likely..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect through 7 AM Sunday Morning for Providence County Rhode Island, Northern Connecticut, Northern Bristol and Western Plymouth Counties for 6-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible and wind gusts to 45 MPH which could cause considerable blowing and drifting snow..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Norfolk, Suffolk, and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts through 7 AM Sunday for 2-5″ of snow and wind gust to 40 MPH which could cause some blowing and drifting snow..
..Much of the rest of Southern New England will see 1-3″ of snow north of the Mass Pike and interior northeast Massachusetts south of the New Hampshire border with northern and western Massachusetts seeing 1″ or less of snow..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect from 10 AM Saturday Morning to 10 AM Sunday Morning for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts likely. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Eastern Essex County Massachusetts from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH likely..
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect from late Sunday Morning to the midday high tide for Eastern Plymouth, Barnstable and Nantucket Counties for minor to moderate coastal flooding around the time of the Sunday Midday High Tide..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by Noon Saturday. Overnight SKYWARN Operations Saturday Night are possible depending on the track and intensity of the storm with Activation and Ops likely for the Sunday Morning high tide..
The headlines of this message capture the current headlines for Southern New England as of 1015 AM this morning. Models trends overnight continue to wobble on the heaviest snow bands into Southern New England. The general themes from last night’s message with a trend further north in the heavier snowfall and expansion of the Winter Storm Warning into Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut and expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory into Norfolk, Southern Worcester and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts. Snow totals along the South Coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island have been increased a bit. The heaviest snowfall for the NWS Taunton coverage area remain in areas on the South Coast, Cape Cod and Nantucket island with the potential for near blizzard conditions and for Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI to see blizzard conditions. The track difference of 30-50 mile remains a concern for the snowfall forecast and the heaviest bands of snow are wobbling a bit but have trended a bit further north resulting in the expansion of warnings and advisories. Nonetheless, a small track difference of 30-50 miles can still make a fairly significant difference in the snowfall forecast and is within the error of the models at this time range. The strong to damaging wind potential in Southeast New England and minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of the high tide cycle Sunday Morning remain the highest confidence issues with this storm system and wind gust numbers have been increased slightly over the Southeast New England region. Also of note given the heavier snowfall amounts in the Winter Storm, High Wind and Blizzard Warning areas is for the potential of that snow to be heavy and wet and with the strong to damaging winds there could be the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. This will need close monitoring throughout the storm event.
Once again the biggest issue at hand is that just a small amount of track change in the storm system and the heaviest snow bands will make the difference between the current forecasted snow amounts occurring, much higher amounts occurring, especially in south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island or much lesser amounts over the area. This will be watched carefully throughout the storm event. At this time, the storm trends and data suggest higher snowfall amounts.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by Noon Saturday. Overnight SKYWARN Operations Saturday Night are possible depending on the track and intensity of the storm with Activation and Ops likely to continue for the Sunday Morning high tide. This is likely the last storm coordination message for this system as we move into operations mode though another coordination message could be sent if time allows and significant change to the storm event occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics and Snowfall/Probability maps on the potential major winter storm.
NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic:
NWS Taunton Snowfall Total/Probability Graphics:
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
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