Special Announcement: El Nino and Its Impacts on Southern New England Weather Presentation Tonight – 1/25/16 at 7 PM at North Providence Public Library

Hello to all..

There will be a presentation regarding El Nino and Its Impacts on Southern New England Weather Presentation, today, Monday January 25th, 2016 at 7 PM at the North Providence Public Library in North Providence Rhode Island. The presentation will be given by David Vallee Hydrologist-In-Charge of the Northeast River Forecast Center. All are welcome to attend. We apologize for the late notice on publicity understanding this notice is going out the same day as the presentation. We were notified of the presentation this weekend due to Dave’s travel schedule this month and with volunteer operations for the blizzard, this was the earliest to get a notification out. If people have a free night they are looking to fill, this will be an interesting and informative presentation on El Nino and how it affects Southern New England weather.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #5 – Weekend Winter Storm

Hello to all..

..Uncertainty lessening on potential winter storm outcomes for this weekend though continued slight storm track differences of just 30-50 miles can make the difference of heavier snow and stronger winds further north versus a much lighter snowfall and strong to damaging winds remaining in Southeast New England. The trend has been for heavier snowfall to trend northward through southern parts of Southern New England. Near Blizzard conditions likely in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Nantucket Island with blizzard conditions likely on Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI..
..A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for 1 PM Saturday Afternoon to 1 AM Sunday Morning for 8-12 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts to 14″ and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH with isolated higher gusts. The snow has the potential to be heavy and wet and combined with strong winds could cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 7 AM Sunday Morning for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands and Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island for 8-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 14″ and strong to damaging winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH and isolated higher gusts. The winds and potentially wet snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages and near blizzard conditions are likely..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 7 AM Sunday Morning for Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and strong winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH and isolated higher gusts. The winds and potentially wet snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages with considerable blowing and drifting snow likely..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect through 7 AM Sunday Morning for Providence County Rhode Island, Northern Connecticut, Northern Bristol and Western Plymouth Counties for 6-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible and wind gusts to 45 MPH which could cause considerable blowing and drifting snow..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Norfolk, Suffolk, and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts through 7 AM Sunday for 2-5″ of snow and wind gust to 40 MPH which could cause some blowing and drifting snow..
..Much of the rest of Southern New England will see 1-3″ of snow north of the Mass Pike and interior northeast Massachusetts south of the New Hampshire border with northern and western Massachusetts seeing 1″ or less of snow..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect from 10 AM Saturday Morning to 10 AM Sunday Morning for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts likely. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Eastern Essex County Massachusetts from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH likely..
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect from late Sunday Morning to the midday high tide for Eastern Plymouth, Barnstable and Nantucket Counties for minor to moderate coastal flooding around the time of the Sunday Midday High Tide..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by Noon Saturday. Overnight SKYWARN Operations Saturday Night are possible depending on the track and intensity of the storm with Activation and Ops likely for the Sunday Morning high tide..

The headlines of this message capture the current headlines for Southern New England as of 1015 AM this morning. Models trends overnight continue to wobble on the heaviest snow bands into Southern New England. The general themes from last night’s message with a trend further north in the heavier snowfall and expansion of the Winter Storm Warning into Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut and expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory into Norfolk, Southern Worcester and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts. Snow totals along the South Coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island have been increased a bit. The heaviest snowfall for the NWS Taunton coverage area remain in areas on the South Coast, Cape Cod and Nantucket island with the potential for near blizzard conditions and for Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI to see blizzard conditions. The track difference of 30-50 mile remains a concern for the snowfall forecast and the heaviest bands of snow are wobbling a bit but have trended a bit further north resulting in the expansion of warnings and advisories. Nonetheless, a small track difference of 30-50 miles can still make a fairly significant difference in the snowfall forecast and is within the error of the models at this time range. The strong to damaging wind potential in Southeast New England and minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of the high tide cycle Sunday Morning remain the highest confidence issues with this storm system and wind gust numbers have been increased slightly over the Southeast New England region. Also of note given the heavier snowfall amounts in the Winter Storm, High Wind and Blizzard Warning areas is for the potential of that snow to be heavy and wet and with the strong to damaging winds there could be the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. This will need close monitoring throughout the storm event.

Once again the biggest issue at hand is that just a small amount of track change in the storm system and the heaviest snow bands will make the difference between the current forecasted snow amounts occurring, much higher amounts occurring, especially in south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island or much lesser amounts over the area. This will be watched carefully throughout the storm event. At this time, the storm trends and data suggest higher snowfall amounts.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by Noon Saturday. Overnight SKYWARN Operations Saturday Night are possible depending on the track and intensity of the storm with Activation and Ops likely to continue for the Sunday Morning high tide. This is likely the last storm coordination message for this system as we move into operations mode though another coordination message could be sent if time allows and significant change to the storm event occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics and Snowfall/Probability maps on the potential major winter storm.

NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/a.178319238929122.42608.122106561217057/936490143112024/?type=3&theater

NWS Taunton Snowfall Total/Probability Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #4 – Weekend Winter Storm

Hello to all..

..Uncertainty lessening on potential winter storm outcomes for this weekend though continued slight storm track differences of just 30-50 miles can make the difference of heavier snow and stronger winds further north versus a much lighter snowfall and strong to damaging winds remaining in Southeast New England. The trend has been for heavier snowfall to trend northward through southern parts of Southern New England. Near Blizzard conditions likely in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Nantucket Island with blizzard conditions likely on Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect for 1 PM Saturday Afternoon to 1 AM Sunday Morning for 8-12 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH with isolated higher gusts. The snow has the potential to be heavy and wet and combined with strong winds could cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 4 AM Saturday Morning to 7 AM Sunday Morning for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands for 6-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and strong to damaging winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts. The winds and potentially wet snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages and near blizzard conditions are likely..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 4 AM Saturday Morning to 7 AM Sunday Morning for Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and strong winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH and isolated higher gusts. The winds and potentially wet snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages with considerable blowing and drifting snow likely..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 4 AM Saturday Morning to 7 AM Sunday Morning for Providence County Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut for 3-6″ of snow and wind gusts to 35 MPH with isolated higher gusts which could cause considerable blowing and drifting snow..
..Much of the rest of Southern New England will see 1-3″ of snow across areas around the Mass Pike and interior northeast Massachusetts south of the New Hampshire border with northern and western Massachusetts seeing 1″ or less of snow..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 10 AM Saturday Morning to 10 AM Sunday Morning for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts likely. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Eastern Essex County Massachusetts from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH likely..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect from late Sunday Morning to the midday high tide for Eastern Plymouth, Barnstable and Nantucket Counties for minor to moderate coastal flooding around the time of the Sunday Midday High Tide..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence some time between 10 AM-Noon Saturday. Overnight SKYWARN Operations Saturday Night are possible depending on the track and intensity of the storm with Activation and Ops likely to continue for the Sunday Morning high tide..

The headlines of this message capture the current headlines for Southern New England as of 630 PM. Models trends over the course of the day have been a bit further north into southern portions of Southern New England with heavier snowfall and areas on the South Coast, Cape Cod and Nantucket island seeing the potential for near blizzard conditions and for Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI to see blizzard conditions. The headlines of this coordination message reflect the latest thinking. The track difference of 30-50 mile remains a concern for the snowfall forecast but its noted that the spread in the models has decreased some as well which allows for less uncertainty. Nonetheless, a small track difference of 30-50 miles can still make a fairly significant difference in the snowfall forecast and is within the error of the models at this time range. The strong to damaging wind potential in Southeast New England and minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of the high tide cycle Sunday Morning remain the highest confidence issues with this storm system. Also of note given the heavier snowfall amounts in the Winter Storm, High Wind and Blizzard Warning areas is for the potential of that snow to be heavy and wet and with the strong to damaging winds there could be the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. This will need close monitoring throughout the storm event.

Future model runs are hoped to provide further clarity. The spread in the track of the storm among the different weather models is higher than normal though it has lessened since Friday Morning. Its hoped that the spread will continue to decrease and a blend and consensus of the guidance will help further reduce uncertainty as we get quite close to any storm impacts.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence some time between 10 AM-Noon Saturday. Overnight SKYWARN Operations Saturday Night are possible depending on the track and intensity of the storm with Activation and Ops likely to continue for the Sunday Morning high tide. One more coordination message will have more info and clarity on the storm situation before we move into Ops mode. The next coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics and Snowfall/Probability maps on the potential major winter storm.

NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.936141886480183/936140693146969/?type=3&theater

NWS Taunton Snowfall Total/Probability Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875(508) 994-1875(508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503(508) 997-4503(508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Storm Coordination Message #3 – Weekend Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Uncertainty remains higher than normal in potential winter storm outcomes for this weekend with models at a time period where error in storm track is at 100 miles and a difference of just 30-50 miles can make the difference of heavier snow and stronger winds further north versus a much lighter snowfall and strong to damaging winds remaining in Southeast New England..
..South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island stand the greatest risk of highest snowfall totals with areas south of the Mass Pike still at risk for some accumulating snow. Strong to Damaging Winds and Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding also remain threats to Southeastern New England..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Saturday Morning to Sunday Morning for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands for 4-7″ of snow and strong winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH. The winds and snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. A track further north could mean even heavier snow and stronger winds. A track further south means lighter snowfall and somewhat less wind in this area..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Block Island Rhode Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Island for sustained winds 30-40 MPH with wind gusts to 60 MPH. These winds will have the potential to cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains a threat in Southeast New England especially south of Boston through Cape Cod and the Islands on north and east facing beaches. Coastal Flood Watches and/or Advisories will likely be posted in later updates for the high tide cycles Saturday Evening and especially late morning Sunday..
..Much of the rest of Southern New England will see 1-3″ of snow with areas between the Mass Pike south and north of the Winter Storm Watch area possibly seeing some higher snowfall amounts if models trend northward. Lesser amounts are expected if the track is further south..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this weekend including the potential for overnight operations depending on the storm track and timing..

The headlines of this message capture the current headlines for Southern New England as of 750 AM. Models continue to wobble with the track of what will be a historic storm for the US Mid-Atlantic States region. Southern New England is on the northern fringe of the storm’s envelope. Unfortunately, this will cause greater uncertainty in the forecast than normal and makes it a difficult forecast to allow people to plan appropriately for the storm. Current model trends have been northward with the track with South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island standing the greatest risk for heavier snowfall, strong to damaging winds and minor to moderate coastal flooding across north and east facing coast line of Southeast New England. Model error in this time range is 100 miles while a difference of 30-50 miles can make the difference of even heavier snow on the south coast, more snowfall further north, especially up through the Mass Pike region or less snowfall in the region. Of highest confidence is the strong to damaging wind potential in Southeast New England and minor to moderate coastal flooding.

Future model runs are hoped to provide better clarity. The spread in the track of the storm among the different weather models is higher than normal. Nonetheless, its hoped that the spread will decrease and a blend and consensus of the guidance will help further reduce uncertainty as we get quite close to any storm impacts.

Additional coordination messages will have more info and clarity on the storm situation. The next coordination message will be posted Friday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion which had an excellent synopsis of the model uncertainty, Hazardous Weather Outlook and the NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics on the potential major winter storm.

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html (Latest Discussion)
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1601211156.fxus61.html (Thursday Morning Model Discussion)

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.935871876507184/935870946507277/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Weekend Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Uncertainty gradually decreasing but still remains over the potential for a weekend winter storm over portions of Southern New England. The greatest risk for potential Heavy Snow, Strong to Damaging Winds and Coastal Flooding remains over southern portions of Southern New England including most of Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts with the Boston area on the northern fringe of significant impacts as well as areas such as the Hartford Connecticut area. As is typically the case with intense, major winter storms, there will be a sharp cutoff in the northern extent of significant winter weather. A track change of 30-50 miles could make the difference in a larger portion of the area getting heavier snow and stronger winds and more of the coast receiving coastal flooding versus much less snow and wind even in southern portions of Southern New England.
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this weekend including the potential for overnight operations depending on the storm track. Additional coordination messages will have more info and clarity on the storm situation. The next coordination message will be posted either late Thursday Evening or early Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion which had an excellent synopsis of the model uncertainty, Hazardous Weather Outlook and the NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics on the potential major winter storm..

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html (Latest Discussion)
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1601211156.fxus61.html (Thursday Morning Model Discussion)

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.935356119892093/935355436558828/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Weekend Major Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Uncertainty remains over the potential for a weekend major winter storm over portions of Southern New England. The greatest risk for potential Heavy Snow, Strong to Damaging Winds and Coastal Flooding is over southern portions of Southern New England including most of Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts with the Boston area on the northern fringe of significant impacts as well as areas such as the Hartford Connecticut area. As is typically the case with intense, major winter storms, there will be a sharp cutoff in the northern extent of significant winter weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this weekend including the potential for overnight operations depending on the storm track. Additional coordination messages will have more info and clarity on the storm situation. The next coordination message will be posted either late Wednesday Evening or early Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion which had an excellent synopsis of the model uncertainty, Hazardous Weather Outlook and the NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics on the potential major winter storm..

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html (Latest Discussion)
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1601201211.fxus61.html (Wednesday Morning Model Discussion)

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic Set 1:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/a.178319238929122.42608.122106561217057/934918959935809/?type=3&theater

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic Set 2:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.934815453279493/934813263279712/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Wind/Storm Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 1/19/16 Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all..

..Advisory level snow fell across much of Eastern and Central Massachusetts and Rhode Island overnight Sunday into early Monday Morning. Strong wind gusts of 40-50 MPH occurred across portions of Southern New England especially higher terrain and along the coast while wind gusts of 50-55 MPH on Outer Cape Cod occurred Monday Mid-Afternoon and Monday Night. These strong will continue through much of Tuesday and may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect through 7 PM Tuesday for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage area for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH likely. Isolated higher wind gusts are also possible in some parts of the NWS Taunton coverage area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong wind potential across the region Tuesday. This will likely be the only coordination message on the strong wind potential unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an updated coordination message..
..We again note the potential for a major winter storm for the weekend time period. Computer models continue to indicate this potential but we are still several days away from the details. Coordination Messages could be posted as we get into the latter portions of this week if the trend continues..
..Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement for Tuesday’s strong winds and the Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Late Sunday Evening 1/17/16-Monday Morning 1/18/16

Hello to all..

..Accumulating Snow over Eastern New England tonight through Monday Morning..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 10 AM Monday for Windham County Connecticut, Eastern Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Worcester County but not the islands and all of Rhode Island except for Block Island for 2-4″ of snow. There is a chance for higher snow amounts in portions of the Winter Weather Advisory area..
..Strong winds are expected on Tuesday and may require a Wind Advisory for portions of Southern New England..
..Finally, there is the possibility of a major weekend winter storm but its still roughly 5 days out and much could change between now and this weekend..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor storm conditions and for snowfall totals tonight through Monday Morning for the accumulating snow event in Eastern New England..

A coastal storm will track well offshore of Southern New England but a trough associated with the coastal storm will bring a light accumulating snowfall. The headlines of this coordination message depict the expected snowfall but there is a possibility of a band of heavier snowfall of around 4-5″ with possibly a few higher amounts greater than 5″ within the Winter Weather Advisory area. This could be either in parts of Southeast Massachusetts Cape Cod or in parts of the North Shore area. This will depend on exact positioning of the trough associated with the coastal storm. SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm conditions and for snowfall totals during this period.

It is noted that there is the potential for strong winds on Tuesday as Arctic air moves into the area and this may require a Wind Advisory for portions of Southern New England. Future coordination messages most likely starting Monday Evening will detail the potential on these strong winds for Tuesday.

Finally, there have already been some discussion and mentions via social media and media outlets regarding a potential major winter storm this weekend. While there is this potential, it is over 5 days out and much could change between now and this weekend regarding this potential system. Coordination messages for this system could occur if the potential remains as we get into the later portions of this week.

Again, SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor storm conditions and for snowfall totals tonight through Monday Morning for the accumulating snow event in Eastern New England. This will be the last coordination message on snowfall from the Sunday Evening to Monday Morning snowfall unless a significant change to the storm conditions occur and time allows for an updated coordination message. A coordination message will be sent by Monday Evening regarding the potential for strong winds for Tuesday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, and Snow Total and Probability Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snow Amount and Probability Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Late Friday Evening 1/15/16-Saturday 1/16/16 Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Quick Hitting Coastal Storm System will affect Southern New England with the potential for a wintry mix in northwestern interior areas, heavy rainfall at the coast and the potential for wind gusts to 40 MPH across Southeast Coastal New England. Overall forecast confidence in the storm scenario is lower than normal for this short time range..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 11 PM Friday Evening through Noon Saturday for Franklin, Northern Worcester, Northern Middlesex, Western Hampden and Western Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of wet snow snow and a trace to one-tenth of an inch of ice with the highest snow and ice amounts in the highest elevations. Given the lower confidence forecast its possible that higher snowfall amounts potentially as much as 6″ could occur and it would be a heavy wet snow and if that occurs, it could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Much will depend on how fast any rain/freezing rain changeover to wet snow in the advisory area occurs..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 11 PM Friday Evening through Noon Saturday for Eastern Hampden, Eastern Hampshire, Southern Worcester, Central Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for a trace to one-tenth inch of ice and possibly a coating to inch of snow. Given the lower confidence forecast, its possible that higher snow and ice amounts could occur and will be monitored..
..The rest of Southern New England is likely to see 1-2″ of rainfall from this storm system and this might cause isolated pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding. Portions of Southeast Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands could see wind gusts to 40 MPH, Given the lower confidence forecast, there could be stronger winds but the lack of a cold high pressure to the north of the coastal storm is expected to limit strong wind potential..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for precipitation type changeover, snow, ice, rain totals and strong wind gusts and any wind damage..

A quick hitting coastal storm system will affect Southern New England late tonight through early afternoon Saturday. The headlines of the coordination message depict the current thinking on this storm system. Confidence on snow and ice amounts is lower than normal for this time range given marginal temperatures but a coastal storm track that would normally produce more snow for Southern New England. This will bear close monitoring as if enough wet snow and/or ice accumulates in the Winter Weather Advisory area, particularly northern and western areas, there would be the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. The other question will be the strength of the winds at the coast. These winds should be sub-advisory given the lack of a pressure gradient given no high pressure to the north of the coastal storm but it will bear watching. Rainfall totals are higher confidence for this forecast.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for precipitation type changeover, snow, ice, rain totals and strong wind gusts and any wind damage. This will likely be the only coordination message for this storm system given the timing in the late tonight through early Saturday Afternoon timeframe unless time allows and a significant upgrade to the situation occurs or Ops at NWS are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snow/ice amount and probability graphics.

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snow/Ice Amount and Probability Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 1/13/16 Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all..

..Tuesday Evening’s Snow Squalls caused a widespread coating to 3″ of snow and there were thunderstorms with small hail along the Southeast Coast of Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts. Focus now turns to strong winds starting overnight through Wednesday Afternoon..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage area from 1 AM-5 PM Wednesday for sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with wind gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the wind conditions from 6-8 AM. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 8 AM through mid-afternoon Wednesday for wind damage reports. This will be the last coordination message for the wind situation for Wednesday. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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