Hello to all..
..Complex scenario regarding severe weather potential for Southern New England from late Saturday Morning through Sunday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western-Central Connecticut and Western Massachusetts in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather with a marginal risk for severe weather through much of the rest of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..A complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms will affect the area late this morning through mid-afternoon. The biggest threat with this complex is frequent lightning and heavy rain but cannot rule out an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm or two within the complex. After that time, between 4-8 PM, another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible particularly in West-Central Connecticut and Western Massachusetts though other areas should monitor. Finally, we can’t rule out a final round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the 5-10 AM timeframe of Sunday Morning if there is sufficient moisture return given instability and wind shear parameters Sunday Morning ahead of a cold front particularly in Southeast New England..
..A Wind Advisory may also be needed for portions of Southern New England for Sunday Afternoon into early evening with strong northwest winds behind the cold front and the possibility of isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely monitor much of the severe weather potential through this weekend. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible but given high uncertainty, self-activation will be utilized unless a more defined or high potential timeframe for possible severe thunderstorm potential can be determined..
As stated in the headlines, complex scenario and low confidence in the possibility of severe weather in portions of Southern New England in the Saturday midday through Sunday Morning timeframe. At 1010 AM, a complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms over East-Central New York will move through the region between late this morning through mid-afternoon. The main threat with this complex is frequent lightning and heavy rainfall though an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with strong winds and hail.
After this complex moves through the area, the threat for severe weather between 4-8 PM over Western Massachusetts and West-Central Connecticut will be determined by the amount of clearing that occurs, the position of the warm front and the level of moisture in the atmosphere. Isolated to Scattered Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in New York State and Pennsylvania but may stay in this region and southwest of Southern New England. There will be ample wind shear but the level of instability and moisture is in question for this timeframe pending the cloud cover from the prior showers and thunderstorms and the warm front position.
As we get into the overnight, the warm front should be past the region and conditions will become more humid with dewpoints in the 60s and the cold front approaching as we get into Sunday Morning. Models are indicating good instability and strong wind shear. Main issue will be the amount of moisture available and the cold frontal timing being in the early morning period. This will be the last timeframe for possible isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential. Models indicate Southeast New England maybe at more risk but all areas should monitor.
Once the cold front passes, skies will clear and it will be sunny and cool but strong northwest winds will occur and these winds behind the front could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. A Wind Advisory may be needed for portions of Southern New England.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely monitor much of the severe weather potential through this weekend. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible but given high uncertainty, self-activation will be utilized unless a more defined or high potential timeframe for possible severe thunderstorm potential can be determined. Another coordination message will be posted by 600 PM. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: firstname.lastname@example.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box