Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday July 22nd, 2016 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely late Friday Afternoon into Friday Night across much of Southern New England away from the south coast of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather except the southernmost part of Southern New England is in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..Threat timeframe for strong to severe thunderstorms is after 400 PM EDT Friday. It is noted that this event has the potential to be a potent outbreak for severe weather but like many severe weather events in Southern New England exact details and small mesoscale deviations could drastically alter the potential or the timing of the severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 4 PM EDT..

A rather interesting severe weather setup is shaping up for Southern New England and the Northeast US on Friday. The headlines give current thinking and as stated in the headlines, this event has high severe weather potential but small mesoscale deviations that can be difficult to resolve could alter the outcome. Also, the timing of the severe weather has uncertainty. There is some cloud cover expected in the morning but this should clear out by late Friday Morning and this should allow for intense heating and destabilization with favorable wind shear profiles. This can potentially set the stage for either a cluster or several clusters of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for the region. There is also the possibility for a larger complex of strong to severe thunderstorms known as a MCS or Mesoscale Convective System to take shape and sweep through much of Southern New England. The timing is a bit uncertain with unstable conditions by mid to late afternoon but weather models showing high levels of instability through the night which could mean severe weather extending into some portion of the overnight hours or not starting until later Friday Evening.

While the setup for severe weather as modeled as high potential, small mesoscale deviations could impact this potential and this includes the following:

1.) Cloud cover from any leftover upstream convection and thunderstorms goes later into the afternoon and reduces the level of instability.
2.) There is an insufficient trigger in the atmosphere to set off the favorable levels of instability and shear.
3.) A complex of severe thunderstorms forms but stays up in Northern New England and doesn’t dive southeast into Southern New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 4 PM EDT. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM EDT Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and the late Thursday Afternoon NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion which provides a good technical/meteorological overview of the severe weather potential for Friday for those more advanced spotters who would like that level of detailed info.

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160721_1730.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1607211945.fxus61.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely late Friday Afternoon into Friday Night across much of Southern New England away from the south coast of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather except the southernmost part of Southern New England is in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..Threat timeframe for strong to severe thunderstorms is after 400 PM EDT Friday. It is noted that this event has the potential to be a potent outbreak for severe weather but like many severe weather events in Southern New England exact details and small mesoscale deviations could drastically alter the potential or the timing of the severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 4 PM EDT..

A rather interesting severe weather setup is shaping up for Southern New England and the Northeast US on Friday. The headlines give current thinking and as stated in the headlines, this event has high severe weather potential but small mesoscale deviations that can be difficult to resolve could alter the outcome. Also, the timing of the severe weather has uncertainty. There is some cloud cover expected in the morning but this should clear out by late Friday Morning and this should allow for intense heating and destabilization with favorable wind shear profiles. This can potentially set the stage for either a cluster or several clusters of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for the region. There is also the possibility for a larger complex of strong to severe thunderstorms known as a MCS or Mesoscale Convective System to take shape and sweep through much of Southern New England. The timing is a bit uncertain with unstable conditions by mid to late afternoon but weather models showing high levels of instability through the night which could mean severe weather extending into some portion of the overnight hours or not starting until later Friday Evening.

While the setup for severe weather as modeled as high potential, small mesoscale deviations could impact this potential and this includes the following:

1.) Cloud cover from any leftover upstream convection and thunderstorms goes later into the afternoon and reduces the level of instability.
2.) There is an insufficient trigger in the atmosphere to set off the favorable levels of instability and shear.
3.) A complex of severe thunderstorms forms but stays up in Northern New England and doesn’t dive southeast into Southern New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 4 PM EDT. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM EDT Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and the late Thursday Afternoon NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion which provides a good technical/meteorological overview of the severe weather potential for Friday for those more advanced spotters who would like that level of detailed info.

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160721_1730.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1607211945.fxus61.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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