Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 7/25/16 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Heat, humidity and severe weather potential will return on Monday to Southern New England. Timing on severe weather potential a bit earlier than stated in the prior message..
..Scattered to possibly numerous strong to severe thunderstorms likely across much of Southern New England from early to mid-Monday Afternoon through late Monday Night. Strong to damaging wind, hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lighting are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for much of the rest of Southern New England..
..Intense Heat and Humidity still expected with a heat advisory continuing for Hampden County Massachusetts and Hartford County Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM EDT lasting through late Monday Night..

Satellite and Radar imagery show strong heating over Eastern New York and New England. Radar imagery shows a line of showers and thunderstorms over West-Central New York likely associated with a trough/cold front will move into the region Monday Afternoon and Monday Evening. Some models weaken this feature while most models show this being the activity that will have severe weather potential over Southern New England. Given the location of this feature, the timing of the severe weather potential now look as early as 1-2 PM lasting into Monday evening. Given strong heating taking place over the region, high instability levels will be present by this afternoon and evening across the region. Shear levels will be marginal at first but increase and be more sufficient for severe weather potential by Monday Afternoon into Monday Evening. This will set the stage for another round of scattered to possibly numerous strong to severe thunderstorms for much of Southern New England. Similar to the last couple of events, there is a key factor that will determine the severe weather potential in the area and in this case, the key factor is that given the earlier timing of the showers and thunderstorms and the fact that shear and other favorable parameters may not arrive until later, does this result in weaker activity over the region versus a more robust severe weather potential.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM lasting through late Monday Night. This will be the last coordination message on today’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook as well as the NWS Taunton Heat Advisory Statement:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Heat Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Heat, humidity and severe weather potential will return on Monday to Southern New England. Timing on severe weather potential a bit earlier than stated in the prior message..
..Scattered to possibly numerous strong to severe thunderstorms likely across much of Southern New England from early to mid-Monday Afternoon through late Monday Night. Strong to damaging wind, hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lighting are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for much of the rest of Southern New England..
..Intense Heat and Humidity still expected with a heat advisory continuing for Hampden County Massachusetts and Hartford County Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM EDT lasting through late Monday Night..

Satellite and Radar imagery show strong heating over Eastern New York and New England. Radar imagery shows a line of showers and thunderstorms over West-Central New York likely associated with a trough/cold front will move into the region Monday Afternoon and Monday Evening. Some models weaken this feature while most models show this being the activity that will have severe weather potential over Southern New England. Given the location of this feature, the timing of the severe weather potential now look as early as 1-2 PM lasting into Monday evening. Given strong heating taking place over the region, high instability levels will be present by this afternoon and evening across the region. Shear levels will be marginal at first but increase and be more sufficient for severe weather potential by Monday Afternoon into Monday Evening. This will set the stage for another round of scattered to possibly numerous strong to severe thunderstorms for much of Southern New England. Similar to the last couple of events, there is a key factor that will determine the severe weather potential in the area and in this case, the key factor is that given the earlier timing of the showers and thunderstorms and the fact that shear and other favorable parameters may not arrive until later, does this result in weaker activity over the region versus a more robust severe weather potential.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM lasting through late Monday Night. This will be the last coordination message on today’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook as well as the NWS Taunton Heat Advisory Statement:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Heat Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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