Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 7/29/16 Severe Weather and Flash Flood Potential

Hello to all..

..Friday will feature convective showers and thunderstorms with the potential for heavy downpours and the potential for high rainfall rates in a short period of time resulting in flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas if the high rainfall rates train over the same area and occur for a long enough period of time. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has indicated a marginal risk for severe weather across Southeast New England including Cape Cod and the Islands for strong winds and the low probability for a possible isolated weak tornado or waterspout. The severe weather threat is conditional and isolated and could stay south of our area..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from 500 AM Friday through Friday Evening for Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for 2-4″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts possible in any areas where thunderstorms or convective showers with heavy rainfall train over the same area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely on Friday. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later Friday Morning into Friday Afternoon/early evening..

Computer models over the last several days have been signaling the potential for beneficial rainfall particularly along and south of the Mass Pike but with a variance in solutions ranging from portions of interior Southern New England to just offshore of Southern New England. At this time, the headlines reflect the current thinking including the heaviest rainfall over Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts including the Cape and Islands. While the rain, if it tracks over some land areas as expected, will be beneficial, if heavy downpours with high rainfall rates occur as expected and hit the same area repeatedly, it could result in urban and poor drainage flash flooding with 2-4″ of rainfall and possibly isolated higher rainfall amounts.

The other secondary threat is for severe weather in the form of strong to damaging winds and even the low probability for an isolated weak tornado or waterspout. Again, this threat could affect parts of Southeast New England or stay offshore of the area. This will be monitored closely.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely on Friday. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later Friday Morning into Friday Afternoon/early evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Friday Morning depending on how any heavy downpours and thunderstorms evolve Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch statement, Marine Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160728_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Friday will feature convective showers and thunderstorms with the potential for heavy downpours and the potential for high rainfall rates in a short period of time resulting in flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas if the high rainfall rates train over the same area and occur for a long enough period of time. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has indicated a marginal risk for severe weather across Southeast New England including Cape Cod and the Islands for strong winds and the low probability for a possible isolated weak tornado or waterspout. The severe weather threat is conditional and isolated and could stay south of our area..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from 500 AM Friday through Friday Evening for Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for 2-4″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts possible in any areas where thunderstorms or convective showers with heavy rainfall train over the same area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely on Friday. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later Friday Morning into Friday Afternoon/early evening..

Computer models over the last several days have been signaling the potential for beneficial rainfall particularly along and south of the Mass Pike but with a variance in solutions ranging from portions of interior Southern New England to just offshore of Southern New England. At this time, the headlines reflect the current thinking including the heaviest rainfall over Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts including the Cape and Islands. While the rain, if it tracks over some land areas as expected, will be beneficial, if heavy downpours with high rainfall rates occur as expected and hit the same area repeatedly, it could result in urban and poor drainage flash flooding with 2-4″ of rainfall and possibly isolated higher rainfall amounts.

The other secondary threat is for severe weather in the form of strong to damaging winds and even the low probability for an isolated weak tornado or waterspout. Again, this threat could affect parts of Southeast New England or stay offshore of the area. This will be monitored closely.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely on Friday. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later Friday Morning into Friday Afternoon/early evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Friday Morning depending on how any heavy downpours and thunderstorms evolve Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch statement, Marine Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160728_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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